1st Aug - Special : ECB Watch

First the ECB- and live commentary links, followed by previews and relevant macro releases published earlier.

Watch out for increased communication (forward guidance, minutes), some follow-up on ABS and related measures, no rate cuts expected. I expect verbal intervention in EURUSD, thus my bearish view on the pair.

Webcast of the press conference – ECB

Introductory statements to the press conference – ECB

1-Aug Introductory statement to the press conference – ECB

 

Live commentary links:

Live: ECB, BOE Rate Decisions – MoneyBeat / WSJ

LIVE commentary – BI

Live coverage – Money Supply / FT

AFTER MEETING

ECB wrap-up: Draghi dovish, but not more dovish – Nordea

Draghi Part I – Marc to Market

 

Draghi Part II – Marc to Market

ECB holds rates, confirms no move for 'extended period' – Reuters

The ECB left interest rates at a record low 0.5 percent on Thursday and affirmed that they will remain there for some while to come and could yet fall further.

Draghi Signals Worst Is Over as ECB Reiterates Low Rates – BB

Draghi said economic indicators signal the euro region is past the worst of its longest-ever recession, while reiterating that interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future.

HIGHLIGHTS-Draghi comments at ECB news conference – Reuters

The ECB Press Conference: Five Key Takeaways – MoneyBeat / WSJ

ECB set to become more transparent – euobserver

Minutes are no longer heresy – Free exchange / The Economist

The ECB keeps its minutes secret for 30 years. Publishing them would bring it closer to central-bank best practice (a field that it once led by pioneering regular press conferences).

Short-term euro rates rise in defiance of Draghi guidance – Reuters

Euro zone money market rates rose on Thursday, in defiance of "forward guidance" from ECB’s Draghi, with investors disappointed policymakers did not discuss interest rates cuts.

Expectations of rate hikes in money markets unwarranted – Danske Bank (pdf)

Comment - ECB kept all policy rates unchanged – Danske Bank (pdf)

PREVIOUSLY

1-AUG

Will Draghi Open the Book on ECB Meetings? (And Other Questions) – WSJ

31-JULY

Draghi’s Choice – Hawkish Dove or Dovish Hawk? – MoneyBeat / WSJ

Europe’s good news, bad news – MacroBusiness

You say you want ECB minutes? We got minutes – Money Supply / FT

Euro-Region Unemployment Unchanged as Economy Improves – BB

Euro-Area July Inflation Holds at 1.6% as Recession Lingers – BB

30-JULY

In Europe, the case for… optimism? – alphaville / FT

Euro-Area Economic Confidence Jumps to Highest in 15 Months – BB

29-JULY

Europe Passes The Inflection Point (Or Why LTRO3 Is Inevitable) – ZH

ECB Officials Want Central Bank to Publish Minutes – WSJ

ECB Preview: Transparency on the agenda – Danske Bank (pdf)

27-JULY

Draghi did it - Chart of the week – Berenberg

Measuring Mario Draghi’s Promises 1 Year On – MoneyBeat / WSJ

LTRO payback, Eonia tightening edition – alphaville / FT

25-JULY

Monetary Developments June – ECB (pdf)

M1 sends strong growth signal but bank lending continues to contract – Danske Bank (pdf)

ECB Says Bank Loans to Private Sector Shrink Most on Record – BB

Loans to the private sector dropped 1.6 percent from a year earlier. That’s the 14th monthly decline and the biggest since the start of the single currency in 1999.

Euro zone credit slump deepens in June as loans to business shrink – Reuters

Loans to private sector shrink 1.6 pct * Weak lending figures highlight impediment to recovery * ECB meets next week, no change in rates expected

How Spain Just Made Mario Draghi's Nightmare Worse – ZH

ECB preview: More clarity on forward guidance? – Nordea

Terrible Eurozone loan data will keep ECB dovish – TradingFloor

Terrible Eurozone monetary data will consign to the dustbin any thoughts that next week's European Central Bank meeting might be hawkish. But don't expect concrete dovish measures either - Germany's looming elections will legislate against that.

Glimmers of hope in the euro area – Sober Look

Given the persistent weakness in credit growth across the Eurozone (see discussion), the latest quarterly ECB survey of banks brought some welcome news. It seems that demand for loans is declining slower than in Q1 and credit tightening in the euro area is subsiding.