Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
US: Trannies Top; Bonds Bottom; Credit Crumbling – ZH
EUROPE
See my updated Special
for the ECB.
Taking analysts by
surprise, economic growth is improving, some of the riskiest European stocks
are showing relative strength.
The IMF has revised
its economic forecast downward to −0.6 percent for 2013,1 making it unlikely
that the real economy will turn worse in the short run. But the latest euro
area economic data project a gradual and surprising recovery in the second half
of 2013.
Enrico Letta: It is
becoming increasingly clear that, if Europe is to overcome its crisis, business
as usual will not suffice. We need a Europe that is more concrete, less
rhetorical, and better suited to the current global economy.
Slowly but unsurely,
Europe is facing up to population trends that will sap long-run economic growth
and force nations to choose between cutting pensions and welfare benefits or
paying higher taxes to maintain them.
UNITED STATES
S&P 500 Breaks
1700 for the First Time in History – The
Reformed Broker
S&P 500 Hits 1700
– MoneyBeat
/ WSJ
Market Breakout – Bespoke
EMPLOYMENT
This graph calls the entire economic recovery
into question – Wonkblog
/ WP
What to Watch for in Friday’s Jobs Report – WSJ
Forecasts for July's Non Farm Payrolls – Bespoke
Employment Situation Preview – Calculated
Risk
My guess is the BLS
will report above the consensus of 175,000 jobs added in July. A key will be
the unemployment rate (and participation rate) to see if unemployment is
tracking the Fed's forecast for QE3 tapering.
FEDERAL
RESERVE
5 Key Issues Facing the Next Fed Chief – MoneyWatch
Regulating and
monitoring the financial system, improving communications, new monetary policy
rules, maintaining independence, structural reform of the system
What kind of Fed chair would Larry Summers be? – Wonkblog
/ WP
This March speech
gives hints
Yellen vs. Summers? Depends on Risks of New
Financial Crisis – WSJ
President Obama will
need to assign a probability to the prospect of another international financial
crisis when he considers his pick for Fed chair. That should dictate which
person is best for the job.
The September taper is
off the table, despite what the myriad forecasters think and the Fed’s
insistence that it’s data-dependent.
Early 3Q Data Lifts Off – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Early signs look good
that the first half doldrums are easing.
But early signs are just that, early.
For example, tomorrow we get the employment report, which can be
notorious volatile. Moreover, we still
have a wealth of data between now and the next FOMC meeting. But if early data is any indication where the
economy is heading, the FOMC will shift further toward reducing monetary
accomodation between now and the next meeting.
ISM
MANUFACTURING
Manufacturing ISM
Smashes Expectations, Surging To 2011 Levels – ZH
ISM Manufacturing
index increases in July to 55.4 – Calculated
Risk
ISM Manufacturing
Index Surges Above Expectations – dshort
ISM Manufacturing
Spikes to Highest Level Since June 2011 – Bespoke
Analysis: ISM Is Good
Sign for Second Half – WSJ
Manufacturing in U.S.
Accelerates More Than Forecast – BB
US manufacturing ISM a
major positive surprise – Danske
Bank (pdf)
ASIA
Asia’s inconvenient truth: credit is masking
deteriorating fundamentals – beyondbrics
/ FT
Another stimulating
post from the always-readable Frederic Neumann at HSBC in Hong Kong, titled An inconvenient truth. In it, he looks
at the relation between credit on one side and productivity and growth on the
other.
OTHER
Europe's factories grow, U.S. manufacturing at
two-year high – Reuters
U.S. manufacturing
grew in July at its fastest pace in two years while European factories snapped
a two-year run of declining output, suggesting a prolonged euro zone recession
may be near its end.
July Global PMI Scorecard – The
Reformed Broker
Spot The Odd One Out –
ZH
EMEA Weekly: Week 32 – Danske
Bank (pdf)