EUROPE
Brussels blog round
up 24 – 30 August – Europp
/ LSE
Europe reacts to Cameron’s defeat over Syria, Merkel and Steinbrück’s
televised debate, and is France moving to the right?
Aging Euroskeptics – Krugman
/ NYT
The European
sovereign debt crisis - past, present and future – BIS (pdf)
Speech by Dr Andreas Dombret, Member of the Executive Board of the
Deutsche Bundesbank, to participants of the GMAP of Fletcher School, Berlin, 26
August 2013.
Corporate finance and
economic activity in the euro area – ECB (pdf)
European Central Bank Occasional papers by Task Force of the Monetary
Policy Committee of the ESCB
A market-based
approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area – ECB (pdf)
European Central Bank Working papers by Martín Saldías
The global effects of
the euro debt crisis – ECB (pdf)
European Central Bank Working papers by Livio Stracca
Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence
from the Eurozone – Haraldhau
The eurozone has a
single short-term nominal interest rate, but monetary policy conditions
measured by either real short-term interest rates or Taylor rule residuals varied substantially across
countries in the period from 2003-2010.
German elections: New
momentum on EU issues – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The most likely outcome of the federal election on 22 September is that
Angela Merkel (CDU) will continue as Chancellor.
Popular with
Populists: Euroskeptic Party Attracts Right Wing – Spiegel
Since its launch in April, euroskeptic party Alternative for Germany has been accused of
peddling right-wing sentiments. A new study establishes the party's centrist
status, but shows that it still attracts right-wing populist attention.
Finnish economy:
Focus on structural reforms – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Finnish government announced on 29 August a budget for 2014. The budget
was unsurprising as the agreement was heavily based on the agreement the
six-party coalition made in March. Mild austerity continues as planned.
The Driving Force
behind the Boom and Bust in Construction in Europe – The
Big Picture
Portugal’s economic
recovery: Between bail-outs – The
Economist
Spain Reports Current
Account Surplus as Rajoy Predicts Recovery – BB
Once again we are heading for a budget battle in the US Congress.
Curious timing for
Fed self-doubt on monetary policy – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Why Larry Summers was always the favorite for Fed – Wonkblog / WP
Federal Reserve:
Choosing the chairman – The
Economist
The Federal Reserve:
Dove v dove – The
Economist
How the Fed chair
race became a public circus, and why it matters – Wonkblog
/ WP
China’s big banks:
Giant reality-check – The
Economist
Indian rupee resumes
slide as fears grow for slowing economy – Reuters
RBI sells dollars
directly to oil importers; kicks the can down the road – Sober
Look
REGULATION
Macroeconomic impact
assessment of OTC derivatives regulatory reforms – BIS (pdf)
In its preferred scenario, the group found economic benefits worth 0.16%
of GDP per year from avoiding financial crises. It also found economic costs of
0.04% of GDP per year from institutions passing on the expense of holding more
capital and collateral to the broader economy. This results in net benefits of
0.12% of GDP per year.
Market-based bank
capital regulation – voxeu.org
Today’s regulatory
rules – especially the ineffective capital requirements – have led to costly
bank failures. This column proposes a new, robust approach that uses market
information but does not depend upon markets being ‘right’.
‘I take your
hypothetical scenario of counterparty failure, and raise you a bank resolution
regime…’ – alphaville
/ FT
Imagine spending an entire career evaluating bad things that might
happen to financial institutions. It’s no mere thought experiment done in
passing, but rather a task that one slaves over in excruciating detail. For
years upon years on a constantly moving chessboard of potential disaster. So,
who wants to be a regulator?
MONETARY POLICY
Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero
Lower Bound – BIS
(pdf)
San Francisco Fed Working Papers by Glenn D. Rudebusch
Risks to price
stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: a real-time assessment – ECB (pdf)
European Central Bank
Working papers by Günter Coenen, Anders Warne
Identifying
conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks – voxeu.org
Monetary policy isn’t
a game. OR IS IT??? – Wonkblog
/ WP
Some of the 12 reserve banks across the country have taken it upon
themselves to create online games — of varying degree of cleverness — to help
explain the esoteric work of the nation’s central bank.These are the Games of
the Federal Reserve.
EMERGING
Horns of a trilemma – The
Economist
How can the emerging economies protect themselves from the rich worlds
monetary experiments?
The End of the
Emerging-Market Party – Project
Syndicate
Enthusiasm for emerging markets is evaporating, as their stocks and
bonds are down for the year and their economies are slowing. And, with stable
or lower export prices reducing real growth and causing their currencies to
weaken in real terms, the buoyant performance of the recent past is unlikely to
return any time soon.
Can Brazil's Currency Be Saved? – BB
OTHER
Banks, economists
and politicians: just follow the money – mainly
macro
How can you get an
economy INTO a liquidity trap? – Worthwhile
Macroeconomists at
War
– Krugman
/ NYT
Macro workers and
macro wars – mainly
macro
I really think it is much more productive to try and understand
someone’s opposing point of view than just be rude about it. Most academic
macroeconomists are just trying to advance the discipline by getting their
papers published, and are certainly not consciously trying to defend some
ideological viewpoint.
Migration Is
Expensive, but Pays Off in Productivity – BB
Migrants are the big economic winners from migration, because they move
from countries in which workers are paid little to ones in which they are paid
a lot.
Global house prices:
Mixed messages – The
Economist
Common pitfalls in
correlations analysis – TradingFloor
Reshuffling The
(Historical Return) Deck – The
Capital Spectator
Was the World
Economic Crisis Avoidable? – Economonitor
Market regime change
- is your risk manager even aware of it? – Sober
Look
Michael Mauboussin,
Interview No. 4 – Farnam
Street
Once you understand luck’s role, you can
understand how to approach the activity more thoughtfully, including how you
develop skill and interpret results.
OFF-TOPIC
20 Things
20-Year-Olds Don't Get – Forbes
Top 15 trading
movies: 2013 edition – All
About Alpha
Psychology of
Intelligence Analysis – CIA
/ The Big Picture
The Oil Drum, peak
oil and why some good blogs don’t last – alphaville
/ FT
Fighting for Sumo
Harsh Life Deters Would-Be Wrestlers – Spiegel
Sumo is as Japanese as
Mount Fuji or the cherry blossom festival, but the traditional sport is facing
problems. Deterred by the harsh training and life of privation that comes with
joining a stable, dwindling numbers of boys are interested in becoming sumo
wrestlers.
How to read and
understand a scientific paper: a guide for non-scientists – Violent
Metaphors
What Are Your
Favorite “Non-Boring” Business Books? – The
Big Picture
Michael Lewis on Writing, Money, and the
Necessary Self-Delusion of Creativity – brain
pickings
Document No.9: The Party Attacks Western
Democratic Ideals – WSJ
As articulated in
Document No. 9, a memo by senior leaders to Party members, the threat of
Western democratic ideals to Communist ideology and to the principle of Party
leadership is being taken more seriously than at any time in the recent past.
Leonardo DiCaprio and Martin Scorsese Explore
the Funny Side of Financial Depravity in The Wolf of Wall Street – Vulture
When the textbook industry goes the way of the
music industry – Worthwhile
Investment bankers’ idea of what is normal is
distorted – Irish
Times
All the studies show
that more than half the deals bankers have talked clients into undertaking
destroy rather than create value
On the Legalisation
of Marijuana & the War on Drugs – Noahpinion
Why Spend Money on
Space Exploration? Isaac Asimov’s Witty 1969 Letter – brain
pickings
What is the value of
unique? – alphaville
/ FT
Go forth and multiply – Felix
Salmon / Reuters
Prepare to be
assimilated – alphaville
/ FT
FINNISH
Professori Matti Virén IS:ssa: Hallituksen
toimet eivät miljardeja, vaan miljoonia – Verkkouutiset
Mikä maksaa? Suomi-talkoot - Mitä tässä
taloudessa nyt oikein tarttis tehdä? – YLE
Juho-Pekka
Rantalan vieraina Vesa Vihriälä Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitoksesta, Pekka
Sauramo Palkansaajien taloudellisesta tutkimuslaitoksesta sekä Janne Huoveri
Pellervon taloudellisesta tutkimuslaitoksesta. .
EU:n puolustuspolitiikka – Brysselin
Kone / YLE
Jo
parikymmentä vuotta sitten Maastrichtin sopimuksessa katsottiin, että
poliittinen unioni voi johtaa yhteiseen puolustukseen. Kuinka tässä on edetty?
Haastateltavana on erikoistutkija Tommi Koivula Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulusta.
EU ja aiemmat valtioliitot - haastateltavana
professori Erkki Pihkala – Brysselin
Kone / YLE
Professori
emeritus Erkki Pihkala on opettanut taloushistoriaa Helsingin kauppakorkeakoulussa.
Hän on sitä mieltä, että EU on ainutlaatuinen kokeilu, jonka kaltaista
historiassa ei aiemmin ole ollut, vaikka maailmassa ja Euroopankin alueella on
ollut erilaisia valtioliittoja, liittovaltioita ja tulliliittoja.
Eurokriisi ja tuloerot – Brysselin
Kone / YLE
Miten
eurokriisi tai sen eri ratkaisuvaihtoehdot vaikuttavat EU-kansalaisten
tuloeroihin? Ja olisiko jo tämän kriisin aikaan syytä aloittaa analyyttinen
keskustelu siitä, kannattaako meidän olla mukana eurossa, vaikka EU:ssa
haluaisimmekin olla? Haastateltavana on vanhempi tutkija Markku Lehmus
Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksesta.
EU-politiikkaa eurokriisin varjossa – Brysselin
Kone / YLE
Onko
Suomelle ollut hyödyllistä pysyä eurossa, miten taas uudelleen esiin kaivettu
ajatus euromaiden yhteisistä velkakirjoista etenee ja kuinka EU-alueen talous
näyttää kehittyvän?
Haastateltavana
on Etlan toimitusjohtaja Vesa Vihriälä.
Ykkösaamu: Suomi jäämässä jälkeen – YLE
Budjettineuvotteluissa
hallituksen rivit ovat toistaiseksi pitäneet yhtä, mutta päätöksistä ei ole
vielä tietoa. Politiikan tutkija Erkka Railo arvioi, että lähipäivät näyttävät
kuinka yhtenäisenä hallituspuolueet pysyvät. Pellervon taloustutkimuksen
toimitusjohtaja Pasi Holm puolestaan kaipaa uudistuksia, joilla etumatkalla
olevat Ruotsi ja Saksa saadaan kiinni. Syyrian tilannetta arvioimassa UPI:n
ohjelmajohtaja Mika Aaltola, Pasi Myöhänen raportoi Britanniasta.
EU-suurlähettilään paikalta eläkkeelle jäävä Jan Store toivoo Suomen palaavan
vanhalle linjalle EU:ssa.