EUROPE
G20 summit, Norway
heads to the polls, and can the German elections still spring a surprise?
‘New Portugal plan will be tougher than
Ireland’s deal’ – Presseurop
To ensure its future,
Portugal will have to sign a new financial aid deal with the European
Commission and European Central Bank in June 2014 when its current agreement
with the IMF-ECB-EU troika of international lenders comes to an end.
The Obama
administration’s so-called “pivot to Asia” is the most important strategic
shift that the United States has undertaken since the end of the Cold War – and
it has profound implications for Europe. But Europe’s leaders have largely
ignored or misunderstood its significance, and thus have failed to seize the
opportunity that it represents.
Whatever you do, don't mention immigration – The
Telegraph
I did not argue that
all immigration was bad. What I did attempt to argue was that mass, low-skill
immigration depresses wages, and that this probably causes employers to duck
investment in productivity and use low cost labour instead to stay competitive.
I would have thought the evidence for this is, well, pretty self evident.
GERMANY
Right-Wing Surprise: Anti-Euro Party Surges
Before Election – Spiegel
"Grand Coalition" Led by Merkel – Mish’s
Not Going to Happen,
Expect a Shocker in Germany Election
UNITED STATES
Don’t bash Larry for this – Rivast
FOMC members fret
over deflation risks – Sober
Look
FED TAPERING
Fed Officials Face
Cliffhanger September Meeting After Mixed Jobs Report – WSJ
Employment Reports
Muddies the Policy Outlook – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
I still look for tapering at the next meeting, albeit tapering-light…The
Fed will worry that delaying tapering now will only put them at risk of having
to taper more aggressively later, and such a scenario would be interpreted by
financial markets as stepping up the timing of the first rate hike. They can get the first move out of the way
this month with a small cut to the pace of asset purchases and then reassess
the situation over the next six weeks.
Update: Four Charts
to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering – Calculated
Risk
To Taper or Not to
Taper, That is the Question (After a Weak Jobs Report) – WSJ
WSJ's Hilsenrath:
September FOMC Meeting "Cliffhanger" – Calculated
Risk
Fed’s Evans sticks to strong forecast despite
misses – MacroScope
/ Reuters
EMERGING MARKETS
Daniel Gros: A few
years ago, when the US Federal Reserve embarked on yet another round of
“quantitative easing,” some emerging-market leaders complained loudly. But the
real reason why capital flowed into emerging markets over the last few years,
and why the external accounts of so many of them have swung into deficit, is
the euro.
Strategy: EM biggest case for positive surprise
in 2014 – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The capital-freeze
index: Stop signs – The
Economist
Which emerging markets are the most vulnerable to freeze of capital
inflows?
EM fund flows: the
exodus continues – beyondbrics
/ FT
G20
The G20 Leaders'
Declaration – G20
Failure On All Fronts
No Progress from G-20 Leaders – Spiegel
The G-20 summit ended
worse than expected on Friday -- with acrimony, division and name-calling over
Syria. The conference, which was originally conceived as an economic forum,
also failed to deliver results on global recovery.
G20 to Emerging
Markets: We Feel Your Pain – CFR
G-20 Needs to
Reinvent Itself to Be Relevant – View
/ BB