Citi Credit Weekly Aug-2 2013:
…both Italian and Spanish government bonds’ haircut levels at the ECB are clinging on to the “AAA to A” category thanks only to a lone A rating (on negative outlook) from DBRS. Thanks to the ECB’s even more surprising recent increase in haircut levels for BBB governments, a one-notch downgrade from DBRS would result in a five-to-tenfold increase in margins payable.In credit, we love it when banks go out and raise equity, but that is not always an option. If even Deutsche reckons the best way to cope is by shedding €300bn in assets (presumably with a bias to better-quality ones), what does that imply for the periphery?
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News roundup – Between The
Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Investors Bet On Battered
Markets – WSJ
Europe Morning
MoneyBeat – WSJ
MORNING BRIEFINGS
The EU Sentix Investor
Confidence Index will shed further light on the nascent Eurozone recovery while
the US Employment Trends Index, and US consumer credit also make it on to the
shortlist of numbers to watch today.
European markets are
likely to open higher Monday. Traders will eye today's EU Sentix confidence
data for further cues. Meanwhile, data showed that Chinese trade surplus
widened more than forecast, while Japan's GDP was revised upwards in Q2.
Danske Daily –
Danske Bank (pdf)
With few important
data releases today, focus will be on the US decision on Syria, as Congress is
likely to vote this week on whether to carry out a strike…Fed’s Williams (non-voter,
dove) is due to speaks… Italian politics may also again attract attention as the
senate committee starts expulsion proceedings against former PM Berlusconi. The
issue risks splitting the Italian coalition government in two.
Bond yields fall on
weaker than expected US payrolls * US employment report disappoints * No consensus on Syria during G20 summit * Retail sales &
consumer confidence numbers from the US this week * Plenty of issuance ahead
Aamukatsaus –
Nordea
Euroteollisuus köhii vieläkin * USA:n
työllisyyskasvu petti…mikä painoi jenkkikorkoja ja heikensi dollaria
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
EUROPE
Monetary policy and financial stability under
one roof – ECB
Keynote Speech at the
6th Policy Roundtable of the European Central Bank: “The future of global
policy coordination”, Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 6
September 2013
UNITED STATES
Why Janet Yellen, Not Larry Summers, Should
Lead the Fed – Joseph
Stiglitz / Opinioator
Are We There Yet? – FED
A speech delivered by
Charles Evans on September 6, 2013, at the AgFirst Summit
Is The U.S. Dollar Set To Spike? – Asia Confidential
Does America’s energy
boom change everything? * Possible impact on Asia & beyond * Potential
problems with thesis
Is This As Good As It Gets? – ZH
Not only is the macro
surprise index near its normalized highs (suggesting there is not much room for
further positive surprises here) but each time the pace of apparent improvement
has been so fast, the US equity market has faded lower as
"hard" data simply does not support the hope in the markets and
"soft" data.
Why the credit market matters to US equities – Humble
Student
If Financials, which
had been providing the bulk of the earnings growth for the market, start to
falter, then what happens to stock prices (unless other sectors start to pick
up the pace)? For now, credit conditions hold the key to earnings growth and therefore
the outlook for US equity prices.
ASIA
Evidence mounts that China had escaped the
worst of emerging markets rout
– Sober
Look
Economists React: China Exports Up Again in
August – WSJ
OTHER
FX Comment: goldilocks – Nordea
Thoughts on the Week Ahead – Marc to
Market
1) Australia drove out
the Labor government 2) China reported a larger than expected August trade
surplus 3) results of the Moscow election
Things That Make You Go Hmmm... – Grant
Williams / ZH
Like Ben
"Barrel'o'Monkeys" Bernanke
G-20 Ignores Elephant in Room: Unstable Global
Financial System – WSJ
Goldman's Quick Answers To Tough EM Questions – ZH
Is
Forward Guidance Already Dead? – ZH
bofAML suggests that recent evidence shows the effectiveness of forward
guidance is diminishing... already.
FINNISH
Heikki
Koskenkylä: Holtittoman rahankäytön on loputtava – PS
Eurokriisi on jatkunut jo neljä vuotta, eikä
loppua näy. Suomen talous on heikentynyt jatkuvasti ja pysynyt pinnalla vain
mittavalla velkaelvytyksellä. Talousasiantuntija Heikki Koskenkylä arvioi, että
Suomella on edessä pitkä ja raskas sopeutuminen, eikä Euroopasta ole
odotettavissa vetoapua.
Ykkösaamu: 07.09.2013 – YLE
Perussuomalaisten puheenjohtaja Timo Soini on
Jari Korkin vieraana.
Työn
tarjonta ja työttömyys – Akateeminen talousblogi
Asuntojen
myyntiajat pidentyneet – Piksu
Jussi
Niinistö: Eurokriisi ei ole ohi – PS