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Tuesday, February 18

18th Feb - European bad news, so EUR breaks higher

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe’s Banks Fret About Stress TestsWSJ
The ECB on Wednesday will host a public hearing at its Frankfurt headquarters on the draft framework regulation for its new euro-zone banking supervisor. The framework will set out how the ECB will cooperate with national authorities within the new supervisor, which starts in November. But most of the chatter is likely to be about what happens before that.

Spanish Bad Loans Hit Record; Surge Most In A YearZH

Ukraine: too little, too late from Ukraine’s oligarchsbeyondbrics / FT
As the death toll from Tuesday’s deadly clashes between Ukrainian anti-government protestors and riot police rose to more than ten, and Kiev’s main square was lit by flames, the country’s powerful oligarchs called for an end to the bloodshed.

Rating Action Preview: Focus on AustriaMarc to Market
Some risk that Fitch cut its outlook on Austria's AAA rating to negative from stable.

UK Inflation Slumps Below BoE Target (But Price Pressures Are Building) – ZH
UK inflation falls below BoE target for first time since Nov 2009 – Reuters

Pound Slides Against Euro After Inflation Slows; U.K. Bonds Rise – BB

Swedish Consumer Price Decline Adds Pressure on Riksbank Rate – BB

Germany, France seek to revive transaction tax plan – Reuters
Transaction tax would cost UK savers 3 billion pounds – Reuters
Financial Transactions Tax would cost UK pensions billions – The Telegraph
EU finance tax to wipe £3.6bn off UK savings – City AM

Fed Issues Final Rules for Foreign Banks NYT
Fed Tees Up Its Role as De Facto Global Banking RegulatorWSJ
The Fed is expected to flex its Dodd-Frank muscle today, drawing large foreign banks into the Fed’s regulatory regime and outlining new requirements big banks must take to manage risk.

New York Fed report shows households adding debt – NY FED
Student debt is terrible, in charts – WaPo
Student Loans Hit Record $1.08 Trillion – ZH
NY Fed: Household Debt increased in Q4, Delinquency Rates Improve – Calculated Risk
'Who’s Borrowing Now? The Young and the Riskless!' – Economist’s View

Homebuilder Confidence Nosedives – Bespoke
NAHB: Builder Confidence declines sharply in February to 46 – Calculated Risk
Sharp fall in US NAHB Housing Index not all due to bad weather – Danske Bank

Too Early To Call Abenomics a Failure – WSJ
Bank of Japan surprises with easing move – Danske Bank
Bank of Japan holds fire despite soft GDP, expands loan programs – Reuters

Is renewed surge in credit forcing PBoC to tighten further? – Danske Bank
PBOC Drains Funds Using Repos for First Time in 8 Months – BB

An EM credit crunch, not a sudden stopalphaville / FT
The crisis in the emerging markets’ “fragile 8″ , which threatened to sweep all before it a few weeks back, seems to have settled down almost as quickly as it erupted onto the scene.

Emerging Markets at Risk From Carry Trade Unwinding, BofA SaysBB
Emerging Markets Are Biggest Risk to StabilityWSJ
The MSCI Emerging Market index has recovered almost 5% from this year’s low on Feb. 5.  But major fund managers still see danger lurking, with emerging markets cited as the biggest risk for financial stability by almost 80% of those surveyed over the past month by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

From Brics to blocs: a new matrix for EM investingbeyondbrics / FT

FX Board: "Stockholm" syndromeTradingFloor

Country Market CapsBespoke

FX Traders Facing Extinction as Computers Replace HumansBB
Swaps Pioneers Recall Wild West Days as Trades Go DigitalBB
Electronic dealing, which accounted for 66 percent of all currency transactions in 2013 and 20 percent in 2001, will increase to 76 percent within five years, according to Aite Group LLC

I love the smell of carry trade in the morningalphaville / FT
BofAML dissecting “an international leverage binge, yet another carry trade, the third in 20 years,” by issuers of corporate bonds in emerging markets…Which makes investing in EM not so much about EM — as about what the Fed will be doing as it exits policy.

Central banks are better off being ‘reassuringly vague’George Magnus
Time to stop obsessing about central banksalphaville / FT
George Magnus, former chief economist at UBS, says central banks can’t do much more to support the economy and it’s time to stop obsessing about their every policy manoeuvre because it’s counterproductive.

Suomi vs. Ruotsi kuvinaRoger Wessman

Eurokriittisiä pelkää jo jopa Angela MerkelErkki Havansi / US

Voiko hyvinvointivaltio perustua vapauteen?Petrus Pennanen / US

Rappio, romahdus, SdpTE
Euron kannatus hupenee RanskassaVerkkouutiset