Here
are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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EUROPE
The
practicalities of EU QE – alphaville / FT
Actually, it’s a €1.5tn question… at least according to SocGen. But it’s
not very clear if that matters considering the barriers to euro area QE are so
high.
Socialists
Could Win European Elections, Poll Predicts – WSJ
This May’s European elections could see a reversal of forces in the European
Parliament, with the center-left becoming the largest group and anti-EU parties
also gaining ground.
Ex-Czech President
Klaus warns Europe is in ‘same blind alley’ – TradingFloor
Former Czech President delivers damning verdict on EU * Klaus warns Europe in 'blind alley'
towards disaster * Euro 'one-size fits all' could never work
The Troika and
financial assistance in the euro area: successes and failures – Bruegel
A systematic evaluation of financial assistance for Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus. All four
programmes, and in particular the Greek one, are very large financially
compared to previous international programmes because macroeconomic imbalances
and the loss of price competitiveness that accumulated prior to the programmes
were exceptional. Yet programmes were based on far too optimistic assumptions
about adjustment and recovery in Greece and Portugal.
Bruegel Think Tank
Says Greece Needs New €40 Billion Bailout – WSJ
Greece should get a new €40 billion bailout and the euro zone should be
prepared to forego interest payments from the government if if the
country’s debt remains too high, economists at a Brussels think tank argued on Thursday.
Spanish Bad Loans Hit Record; Surge Most In A Year – ZH
Euro PMIs disappoint - more pressure on the ECB – Danske Bank
European PMIs: growth ahead, despite a negative surprise – TradingFloor
UNITED STATES
Special: FED 2008
Transcripts – MoreLiver’s
FOMC MINUTES
Beneath Fed’s United Front, Points of Dissension Emerge – WSJ
Little guidance on the eventual new guidance – alphaville / FT
Minutes and Thoughts on Forward Guidance – Marc to Market
New York Fed report shows households adding debt – NY FED
Student debt is terrible, in charts – WaPo
Homebuilder Confidence Nosedives – Bespoke
EMERGING MARKETS
EM crises: get used
to them – beyondbrics / FT
EM crises are here to stay. That’s according to Joseph Capurso, currency
strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The good news? EM
crises don’t always mean a regional or global recession. In fact, they are
rather common, and their impact can be limited.
An EM credit crunch,
not a sudden stop – alphaville / FT
The crisis in the emerging markets’ “fragile 8″ , which threatened to
sweep all before it a few weeks back, seems to have settled down almost as
quickly as it erupted onto the scene.
Emerging Markets at
Risk From Carry Trade Unwinding, BofA Says – BB
Emerging Markets Are
Biggest Risk to Stability – WSJ
The MSCI Emerging Market index has recovered almost 5% from this year’s
low on Feb. 5. But major fund managers
still see danger lurking, with emerging markets cited as the biggest risk for
financial stability by almost 80% of those surveyed over the past month by Bank
of America Merrill Lynch.
I love the smell of
carry trade in the morning – alphaville / FT
BofAML dissecting “an international leverage binge, yet another carry
trade, the third in 20 years,” by issuers of corporate bonds in emerging
markets…Which makes investing in EM not so much about EM — as about what the
Fed will be doing as it exits policy.
What if China Does Land Hard? – WSJ
Over the last two weeks, several major investment houses have published
reports exploring the idea of a hard economic landing in China. They include “We
don’t expect it to happen” caveats. But what if it did happen? Would the rest of the world tank as
well?
OTHER
What
I Learned From Ray Dalio – Morningstar
Lessons from the world's greatest macro investor.
Time to stop
obsessing about central banks – alphaville / FT
George Magnus, former chief economist at UBS, says central banks can’t
do much more to support the economy and it’s time to stop obsessing about their
every policy manoeuvre because it’s counterproductive.
Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold? – IMF
Debt and Growth: There is No Magic Threshold – Economist’s View
IMF Paper Refutes Rogoff, Reinhart Debt Study – WSJ
IMF Note on Global Prospects and Policy Challenges – IMF
IMF Warns G-20 of Deflation Risk, Emerging-Market Turmoil – Businessweek
FINNISH
Arvaa kuka populisti? (osa 4) – Juhani
Huopainen / US
Komissaarit avautuvat: tuomiopäivän uhka oli
tosi – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Talouskomissaari
Olli Rehn todisteli tammikuussa "tuomiopäivän profeettojen" olleen
väärässä, kun euro ei hajonnutkaan. Nyt kuukautta myöhemmin hän "uskaltaa
jo tunnustaa" itsekin, että uhkakuvat euron tuomiopäivästä olivat
sittenkin aiheellisia. Toinenkin komissaari avautuu – ja todistaa, että
väärässä olivatkin "Maastrichtin oikeauskoiset".
Euron kannatus hupenee Ranskassa – Verkkouutiset
Suomi vs. Ruotsi kuvina – Roger Wessman
Tätä Soini aikoo vaatia Kataiselta – Verkkouutiset
Perussuomalaiset
asettaa ehdoiksi EU:n tukipolitiikan ja kehitysavun, kun valtion taloutta
laitetaan kuntoon.
Ensimmäinen kattava EU-gallup – Verkkouutiset
Sosialistit
nousevat ohi EPP-keskustaoikeiston. Keskustan Alde-ryhmä menettää kolmanneksen
paikoistaan. Kokoomuksen EPP putoaa toiseksi suurimmaksi.
Kunnat kuntoon! – Suomen
Perusta
Suomen
Perusta -ajatuspajan artikkelikokoelmassa Kunnat kuntoon! Puheenvuoroja kuntien
ongelmista ja mahdollisuuksista kunta- ja sote-uudistusta, kunnallista
hallintoa ja kuntien talousongelmia käsitellään useista eri näkökulmista. Onko
olemassa optimaalista kuntakokoa? Mistä kuntien menoista voitaisiin säästää?
Tavoitteena Euroopan Yhdysvallat – IL
Komission
varapuheenjohtaja näkee euroalueen liittovaltion alkiona.