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Saturday, February 22

22nd Feb - W/E: Best of the Week

Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The practicalities of EU QEalphaville / FT
Actually, it’s a €1.5tn question… at least according to SocGen. But it’s not very clear if that matters considering the barriers to euro area QE are so high.

Socialists Could Win European Elections, Poll PredictsWSJ
This May’s European elections could see a reversal of forces in the European Parliament, with the center-left becoming the largest group and anti-EU parties also gaining ground.

Ex-Czech President Klaus warns Europe is in ‘same blind alley’TradingFloor
Former Czech President delivers damning verdict on EU * Klaus warns Europe in 'blind alley' towards disaster * Euro 'one-size fits all' could never work

The Troika and financial assistance in the euro area: successes and failuresBruegel
A systematic evaluation of financial assistance for Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus. All four programmes, and in particular the Greek one, are very large financially compared to previous international programmes because macroeconomic imbalances and the loss of price competitiveness that accumulated prior to the programmes were exceptional. Yet programmes were based on far too optimistic assumptions about adjustment and recovery in Greece and Portugal.

Bruegel Think Tank Says Greece Needs New €40 Billion BailoutWSJ
Greece should get a new €40 billion bailout and the euro zone should be prepared to forego interest payments from the government if if the country’s debt remains too high, economists at a Brussels think tank argued on Thursday.

Spanish Bad Loans Hit Record; Surge Most In A Year – ZH
Euro PMIs disappoint - more pressure on the ECB – Danske Bank
European PMIs: growth ahead, despite a negative surprise – TradingFloor

Special: FED 2008 Transcripts – MoreLiver’s

Beneath Fed’s United Front, Points of Dissension Emerge – WSJ
Little guidance on the eventual new guidance – alphaville / FT
Minutes and Thoughts on Forward Guidance – Marc to Market

New York Fed report shows households adding debt – NY FED
Student debt is terrible, in charts – WaPo
Homebuilder Confidence Nosedives – Bespoke

EM crises: get used to thembeyondbrics / FT
EM crises are here to stay. That’s according to Joseph Capurso, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The good news? EM crises don’t always mean a regional or global recession. In fact, they are rather common, and their impact can be limited.

An EM credit crunch, not a sudden stopalphaville / FT
The crisis in the emerging markets’ “fragile 8″ , which threatened to sweep all before it a few weeks back, seems to have settled down almost as quickly as it erupted onto the scene.

Emerging Markets at Risk From Carry Trade Unwinding, BofA SaysBB
Emerging Markets Are Biggest Risk to StabilityWSJ
The MSCI Emerging Market index has recovered almost 5% from this year’s low on Feb. 5.  But major fund managers still see danger lurking, with emerging markets cited as the biggest risk for financial stability by almost 80% of those surveyed over the past month by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

I love the smell of carry trade in the morningalphaville / FT
BofAML dissecting “an international leverage binge, yet another carry trade, the third in 20 years,” by issuers of corporate bonds in emerging markets…Which makes investing in EM not so much about EM — as about what the Fed will be doing as it exits policy.

What if China Does Land Hard?WSJ
Over the last two weeks, several major investment houses have published reports exploring the idea of a hard economic landing in China. They include “We don’t expect it to happen” caveats. But what if it did happen? Would the rest of the world tank as well?

What I Learned From Ray DalioMorningstar
Lessons from the world's greatest macro investor.

Time to stop obsessing about central banksalphaville / FT
George Magnus, former chief economist at UBS, says central banks can’t do much more to support the economy and it’s time to stop obsessing about their every policy manoeuvre because it’s counterproductive.

Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold? – IMF
Debt and Growth: There is No Magic Threshold – Economist’s View
IMF Paper Refutes Rogoff, Reinhart Debt Study – WSJ

IMF Note on Global Prospects and Policy Challenges – IMF
IMF Warns G-20 of Deflation Risk, Emerging-Market Turmoil – Businessweek

Arvaa kuka populisti? (osa 4)Juhani Huopainen / US

Komissaarit avautuvat: tuomiopäivän uhka oli tosiJan Hurri / TalSa
Talouskomissaari Olli Rehn todisteli tammikuussa "tuomiopäivän profeettojen" olleen väärässä, kun euro ei hajonnutkaan. Nyt kuukautta myöhemmin hän "uskaltaa jo tunnustaa" itsekin, että uhkakuvat euron tuomiopäivästä olivat sittenkin aiheellisia. Toinenkin komissaari avautuu – ja todistaa, että väärässä olivatkin "Maastrichtin oikeauskoiset".

Euron kannatus hupenee RanskassaVerkkouutiset

Suomi vs. Ruotsi kuvinaRoger Wessman

Tätä Soini aikoo vaatia KataiseltaVerkkouutiset
Perussuomalaiset asettaa ehdoiksi EU:n tukipolitiikan ja kehitysavun, kun valtion taloutta laitetaan kuntoon.

Ensimmäinen kattava EU-gallupVerkkouutiset
Sosialistit nousevat ohi EPP-keskustaoikeiston. Keskustan Alde-ryhmä menettää kolmanneksen paikoistaan. Kokoomuksen EPP putoaa toiseksi suurimmaksi.

Kunnat kuntoon!Suomen Perusta
Suomen Perusta -ajatuspajan artikkelikokoelmassa Kunnat kuntoon! Puheenvuoroja kuntien ongelmista ja mahdollisuuksista kunta- ja sote-uudistusta, kunnallista hallintoa ja kuntien talousongelmia käsitellään useista eri näkökulmista. Onko olemassa optimaalista kuntakokoa? Mistä kuntien menoista voitaisiin säästää?

Tavoitteena Euroopan YhdysvallatIL
Komission varapuheenjohtaja näkee euroalueen liittovaltion alkiona.