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EUROPE
Has the euro been a failure? – CER
November’s conference, which brought together 50 leading economists,
considered whether the euro was a failure. A host of questions were
debated.
Angela Merkel: Europe is vulnerable in refugee
crisis – Politico
Understanding Euroscepticism – Europp
How British hostility to
the EU contrasts with opposition elsewhere in Europe
Jan von Gerich: Finland: Forget Fixit, rather
fix it – Nordea
There has been a row of
misunderstandings circulating about the stance of Finland towards the euro and
a possible referendum on whether Finland should leave the euro. Finland is not
about to leave the euro, nor is a referendum on the Finnish membership about to
take place. While the Finnish economy is suffering inside the currency union,
the Finnish people realize an exit would be a risky jump into the unknown.
Strategy 2016 Sweden: Riksbank's finger glued to
the trigger – Nordea
Swedish growth will
continue to outperform peers. Inflation will stay below target. The Riksbank
shocked markets by warning about FX intervention at a quite weak SEK level. We
think the fear factor will keep SEK within the comfort zone and there will be
no Riksbank action. But risks are tilted towards FX interventions and some
additional rate cut. Should the Riksbank need to intervene, we expect it to be
on an ad hoc basis and that it first will dip its toes, rather than go for the
full bazooka.
Euro-area Outlook: Recovery set to continue
while politics get messier
– Nordea
Conditions are in place
for continued recovery in 2016/17, mainly driven by private consumption. The
ECB will keep driving with a heavy foot on the gas pedal (although traction is
limited) and fiscal policy turns slightly expansionary. One major risk is
weaker demand from Emerging Markets. And then there is politics: reformers are
facing headwinds and the EU is struggling to find common answers to current
challenges.
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Buck the Selloff
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Market Bulls Look to Earnings for a
Lift
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
PBoC goes nuclear, Fed officials
upbeat, markets price ~1.5 Fed hike * PBoC intervening heavily, closing CNY-CNH
gap * Oil prices continue their descent * Fed officials sounding fairly
optimistic
Morning Markets – TF
It was a mixed picture in Asian
markets today. There was no repeat share rout in China which brought widespread
relief. China's equities even regained a little of the ground lost during
recent falls. However China-driven anxiety and commodity weakness still weighed
on sentiment in Hong Kong Tokyo and Sydney with equities down on all three
bourses.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Sterling's Slide Extended on Dismal
Industrial Output Figures
Global Daily – Brexit risk premium still to build – ABN
AMRO
Brexit risks are set to come more in
focus in markets * Prime Minister Cameron has hinted at referendum in H2 * A
vote for Brexit seems a higher risk than commonly judged * Sterling has
weakened significantly against the dollar…but this reflects rate spreads, with
the Brexit premium still to come
Daily Shot – TF
China remains in the
center of attention. e PBoC has once again intervened in the currency markets
and it seems that Beijing is unhappy about the recent capital outflows
declining FX reserves and its inability to depreciate the currency in an
orderly fashion.
US Open – ZH
Futures Jump After Oil Rebounds From
11 Year Low On Turkish Terrorist Attack
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
The narrative is beginning
to shift from 'if' to 'when' and while we are not there yet a slide to
$20/barrel oil is looking increasingly on the cards.
FINNISH
Korot
2016: Perusta näkemyksesi EKP:n osto-ohjelmaan * Kiinan keskuspankki rajoittaa
juanin heikkenemistä * Pelot Kiinan ympärillä hellittivät maanantaina * Ensi
yönä julkaistaan tiedot Kiinan ulkomaankaupasta