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EUROPE
The Commission appears
to be making up for inaction in Hungary by picking on Poland.
German exports and the Eurozone – Simon Wren-Lewis
Mark Mazower: Lessons from the past are key to
Europe’s survival – FT
Thinking about EU
evolution is near impossible yet never has it been more vital.
Ifo Business Climate
Index Drops Markedly – CESifo
Germany: Ifo business
climate down, now closer to reality – Nordea
MIGRANT CRISIS
Europe’s migration crisis of 2016 – VoxEU.org
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard: The
migrant crisis will continue to top headlines in 2016. This column takes a
detailed look at the EU’s response to dealing with migration, concluding that
everything points towards failure as the likely outcome.
Executives voicing
concern German chancellor may be forced out * Dutch finance minister warns
against upper limit for refugees
EU weighs extension of Schengen border controls – Politico
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
How domestic economic strength can prevail over
global weakness – ECB
Speech by Mario Draghi,
President of the ECB, 25 January 2016
Wolfgang Münchau: Mario Draghi’s inflation
targets miss the mark – FT
The ECB keeps failing
because it is not fully committed
CRISIS COUNTRIES
Greece is Still in a Hot Spot – Marc
Chandler
Citi: Which Italian Banks Are Most Exposed To
Soaring NPLs – ZH
A Fix for Italy's Banks Can't Wait – View
/ BB
Renzi and the EU: Troublemaker – The
Economist
Italy’s prime minister
is picking fights with Germany and the EU
UNITED STATES
El-Erian: What the Fed Will and Won't Do This
Week – View
/ BB
Martin Enlund: Fed - Move Slow and (still) Break
Things – Nordea
Do policymakers really
know what they are doing? Combining former chief Bernanke's jokes with Wu-Xia's
research supports the out-of-consensus idea (fear) that the Fed may already
have tightened as much as it did during the previous four major tightening
cycles. Fed may thus not only have to deal with China, EM, oil and the Snowzilla,
it may also need to come to terms with the Shadow Policy Rate.
Market rout could blow Fed off course if
consumers blink – Reuters
OTHER
Delegates mull Trump
presidency, UK vote and borders crackdown
How Wall Street Finds
New Ways to Sell Old, Opaque Products to Retail Investors
Oil and stock prices – Bruegel
The recent positive link
between oil and stock prices has been puzzling for most observers. While a
decrease in the price of oil was traditionally seen as a net positive for oil
importing countries such as the United States, the concurrent declines in the price
of oil and the US stock market suggest that the relationship may be different
in the current environment.
When The Fed Put Fails – ZH
Proxy hedges from BofAML
Juhani Huopainen: Is the global market bottom
getting closer? – TF
Crude oil is probably
close to its multiyear low * Unfortunately, emerging markets and key FX pairs
are not yet supportive * Equity market correction is too deep for a bull market
* Trade this swing higher, but don't expect new highs before markets go sour
again
This is Why Junk Bonds Will Sink Stocks: Moody’s – Wolf Richter
“Some very critical things
are hidden.”
Aurelija Augulyte: FX: risk-off. Off? – Nordea
Was it a dead-cat bounce
in the Markets, or the beginning of the reversal? The USD rose this year with
USD rates falling - the opposite should occur upon market sentiment recovering.
Yet not necessarily against the EUR and JPY...
What's Worrying the Davos Elite? Plenty – BB
A polarized U.S.
presidential race; question marks over China’s economic management; and a
once-dominant German chancellor suddenly under threat.
Kuroda Gives No Hint of BOJ Appetite to Expand
Stimulus – BB
A New Mindset for a Shifting Global Economy – BB
El-Erian: As companies
and investors painfully discovered in 2008, liquidity can be most elusive when
you need it most.
OFF-TOPIC
The very laws of physics
imply that artificial intelligence must be possible. What’s holding us up?
Tim Powers is one of the foremost practitioners of the secret history
genre, in which real historical events are revealed to have surprising
fictional explanations.
Why Robots Mean Interest
Rates Could Go Even Lower In The Future – BB
Technology gains will hurt workers and boost productivity * Automation to
put `a lid on' inflation, says UBS's Weber
The Sex Machine – Boston
Magazine
Jon Gross is having more sex than you. Way, waaaaay more sex, and with
way more people’s spouses. So how exactly did this middle-aged New England
plumbing-supplies salesman find the secret to free love, make friends with porn
stars and multimillionaires, and become America’s king of swingers?
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks End Volatile Week With
Another Gain
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Here’s What the Markets Will Be
Watching This Week
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Rates recover with oil jump, risk sentiment
drives rates – expect further recovery * Ifo to watch today * Fed to play its
part on Wednesday * EUR safe haven unwind puts pressure on EUR/USD
Morning Markets – TF
What bear market? There was no sign
of the creatures in Asia markets today with the jump in oil prices giving
bourses around the region a welcome lift. Shares made good gains in Tokyo
helped by speculation about Bank of Japan easing. Australia's benchmark
S&P/ASX 200 even soared back above 5000 points.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Recovery Pauses in Europe
Daily Shot – TF
Friday's stunning rally
in crude oil prices lifted shares sharply and crude now drives much of the
sentiment across markets. But overall market sentiment remains terrible and
contrarian investors suggest that risk assets will climb a "wall of
worry."
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Follow Open Europe’s
#EUWargames live online * Sunday Times: UK on course to secure “safety
mechanism” for non-euro member states * Britain considers taking in up to 3,000
unaccompanied young refugees already in Europe * Rajoy rejects mandate to form
new Spanish government * Centre-right candidate triumphs in Portuguese
presidential election * Belgium raises doubts about FTT plan * Italian Finance
Minister warns on rules limiting banks holding of domestic sovereign debt
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Schengen’s last chance —
Populist polls — Le Pen off-grid
US Open – ZH
Oil Slides Dragging Global Stocks,
US Futures Lower, After Saudi Aramco Supply Comments
Frontrunning – ZH
It’s a big week for
central banks again this week with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday the chief
focus though the RBNZ meeting the same day is also important and there is some
chance that the Bank of Japan makes a move at its Friday meeting.
The central-bank
convergence narrative is being taken as gospel but the hope that this means the
Fed will not hike more than once in 2016 could be an erroneous one.
FINNISH
Fedin
vuoro piristää markkinatunnelmaa, korostaa inflaation merkitystä, kasvu
hidastuu tilapäisesti * Raakaöljyn hinta nousi jyrkästi perjantaina Fed korostaa
inflaation merkitystä
Välttäkäämme uutta
liittovaltiokierrosta – Peter
Nyberg
Meneillään
olevalla euroalueen pakolaiskriisillä ja euroalueen ongelmilla on vahva
yhteinen syntyhistoria.
Finland and Its Northern Peers in the Great
Recession – ETLA
The report focuses on
the relative macroeconomic performance since the global financial crisis of six
Northern European countries with a special emphasis on Finland. While fiscal
and monetary policies have definitely impacted on macroeconomic outcomes in the
six countries examined, as a whole they do not appear to be the key driving
forces of the differences observed between the countries.
Jan Hurri: Taasko se alkaa?
Riskiraha karkaa nyt Italian pankeista – TalSa
Pääomaa
pakenee Italian pankeista kuin varoituksena uudesta pankkikriisistä. Tästä
varoituksesta on leikki kaukana, sillä Italian pankkiriskien ja velkamäärien
rinnalla Kreikka oli alkulämmittelyä.
Pankkimies Suomen paluusta
markkaan – Uusi
Suomi
Sanna Ukkola: Aatekauppiaat – YLE
Uusi
alku – Paavo
Väyrynen
Väyrynen
tekee pesäeroa puolueeseen – IS
Paavo
Väyrynen ja lopun alku – Markku
Huusko
Väyrynen
kertoo hetkestä, jolloin hänellä kärähti pinna Sipilään – IS
Väyrysen
purkaus – ensimmäinen kritiikki omilta Sipilälle – IS
Väyrynen:
Valta liberaaleilla ja lestadiolaisilla – IL
Vähittäiskauppa
jouluk. +1.5% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen
tuottajahinnat -0.3% Q4 YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden
tuottajahinnat jouluk. -2.6% YoY – Tilastokeskus