Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
Two Months to Europe's Suicide – euinside
Up until a year ago it
was taboo to even think it was possible that a country should leave the euro
area, while in the last week alone so much was said about a possible death of
the European Union that there is even an exact date set. The Union has two more
months to live.
EUR rates: No limits to negative rates? – Nordea
Draghi’s signals
yesterday confirm that more easing will be in store, which should ensure short
rates will fall even deeper into negative territory and stay there for a long
time. We see less downside potential in longer yields, but expect also long
yields to stay at even more depressed levels throughout our forecast horizon,
with only a minor rise towards the end of 2017.
UNITED STATES
Four Fed Rate Increases in 2016? Its Peers Say
No – View
/ BB
Markets out of sync with the US economy – Nordea
Recent market
developments are difficult to reconcile with the fact that the fundamentals of
the US economy remain solid. The message from our favourite leading indicators
is that there is virtually no chance of a recession in 2016. However,
acknowledging that economic downturns are notoriously hard to predict, we
highlight in this note what we would need to see in terms of data to change our
call and predict a US recession.
OTHER
Steen's Chronicle: Excuses change nothing but
everyone feels better – TF
What a lousy start to
the year – two years of gains annihilated within three weeks. Everybody is in a
tizzy about China but that isn't what they should be worried about.....
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
Draghi, Oil Give Markets a Boost
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Without a Recession, Stocks Should
Recover
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Draghi surprises changing sentiment,
equities rebound with oil, EUR lower with Bunds * We expect ECB to cut rates
and increase PSPP buying in March * Draghi sends euro yields tumbling, scarcity
issues to re-emerge * EUR plummets on dovish Draghi
Morning Markets – TF
ECB president Mario Draghi helped
kick start Asian equities into action overnight and with oil also rallying
risk-on seems to be back in vogue for today at least.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Collective Sigh of Relief Ahead of
the Weekend
Daily Shot – TF
Major stock markets as
well as the oil price bounced back after the ECB's press conference yesterday.
However crude oil which is now the key driver behind equity and credit markers
is still priced at only about $30/barrel and the near-term fundamentals behind
WTI remain terrible.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Cameron not in a hurry
to secure deal with EU but calls on business to back him when he does *
French PM: Refugee crisis
puts the “very idea of Europe” in question * Ireland to oppose scrapping
‘Dublin’ asylum seeker rules * Polish nationalist party initiates campaign for
referendum on taking in refugees * Polish Defence Minister claims UK will
permanently post 1,000 troops in Poland * War of words between Italy and
European Commission continues * Draghi gives strong hint of further ECB
stimulus in March * IMF calls for pension cuts and debt relief in Greece,
issuing a challenge to all sides * Commission to launch crack down on corporate
tax avoidance
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Austria’s tough decision
— Merkel isolation — What Cameron wants
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Surge, Oil Soars As
Hopes For Central Bank Stimulus Return
Frontrunning – ZH
We are seeing a wobbly
attempt at a comeback in risk appetite after a very dovish ECB performance
yesterday and fresh noise on BoJ easing potential overnight but so far the
bounce has underwhelmed and there is a lot more wood to chop before we can call
this a full comeback in risk sentiment.
Yesterday's European
Central bank meeting has lit a fire under global sentiment with traders
expecting new stimulus measures to prop up a very soft year (so far) in risky assets.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View
/ BB
Gladiators, Blockchains
and Structured CDs
FINNISH
EKP:lta 10+10-elvytys sekä maalis- että kesäkuussa *
Riskinottohalukkuus nousussa Draghin puheiden jälkeen * Euroalueen
luottamusluvut viittaavat kohtuulliseen kasvuun