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EUROPE
Getting a Handle on Italy's Banks – Marc
Chandler
Deutsche Bank Warns ECB Further
QE Will Push Stocks Lower
– ZH
MIGRANT
CRISIS
Editorial: How to Manage
Europe's Refugee Emergency – View
/ BB
Juncker drops Greece,
bets on Macedonia – Politico
Denmark’s refugee asset
grab – Politico
Asylum-seekers paid the
Netherlands €500,000 in three years – Politico
UNITED STATES
FOMC preview: Fed to sound mildly dovish – Nordea
The Fed will take a
“wait-and-see” attitude at this week’s FOMC meeting. Although the central bank
is likely to sound mildly dovish, acknowledging the increased risks to the
outlook posed by the recent tightening of financial conditions, it is unlikely
at this point to give any clear hints about the likely outcome of the March
meeting. For now, our baseline scenario is still that the next hike will be in
March, but it has become a close call.
Tim Duy: The Five Scenarios Now Facing the
Federal Reserve – BB
Choppy markets could
mean a central bank in “risk management” mode.
Chances of a Fed Rate Increase Fall After Market
Selloff – BB
5 Things to Watch at the Fed Meeting – WSJ
The Federal Reserve may have made a huge mistake – WaPo
Paul Krugman: Fed’s Fumble – hike was a mistake? – NYT
OTHER
Cheaper Oil May Hurt More Than Help Importers,
Citigroup Says – BB
Sovereign wealth funds
cut EM investments $50 billion in 2015 * Oil exporters may post 1st current
account deficit since 1998
In charts: why oil prices are influencing global
equity markets – FT
Length of correlation
between the two is set to shape investment allocation decisions
How do global investors differentiate between
sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old – BIS
When global investors go
into emerging markets or get out of them, how do they differentiate between
economies? Has this behaviour changed since the crisis of 2008 to reflect a
"new normal"? ... we find an old normal in which a single global risk
factor drives half of the variation in returns and a new normal in which that
risk factor becomes even more dominant. Surprisingly, in both the old and new
normal, the way countries load on this factor depends not so much on economic
fundamentals as on whether they are designated an emerging market.
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Scuttle Last Week’s
Gains
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Can Apple Save the Day When It
Reports Profits?
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Risk aversion is back; oil prices
down * Steadfast US shoppers? * Safe-haven flows dominate bond markets * EUR and
JPY stronger on lower oil prices
Morning Markets – TF
Oil's relentless slide knocked
stocks lower overnight on Wall Street and again on Tuesday in an Asian session
awash with red especially on China's Shanghai Composite.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
It may Feel Bad, but Its Different
Daily Shot – TF
As crude oil and
equities tango in ever-increasing synchronicity the black stuff dips below
$30/barrel once more and leading global indices are being hammered. Meanwhile
Chinese capital outflows look very alarming Hong Kong stocks pose an
interesting conundrum and why are equities ignoring the benefits of cheap oil?
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
EU Wargames: EU
migration and striking a deal on services most contentious points in
post-Brexit world * UK and Germany in discussions over earnings threshold for
access to welfare * EU member states consider extending internal border checks
for up to two years * Draghi hits out at critics and hints at further easing * Europol
warns that IS has developed capability for more attacks in Europe * On-going
refugee crisis exposes divisions within CDU/CSU camp * Creditors give Greece
little wiggle room on implementation of bailout
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Danish debate — French
road rage — Schengen scenarios
US Open – ZH
Last Hour Panic Selling Sends
Chinese Stocks Crashing To 13 Month Low; Crude, Stock Futures Tumble Then
Rebound
Frontrunning – ZH
Risk sentiment crumbled
once again in the US yesterday taking the usual suspects in currency land for a
trip south including emerging market currencies and CAD. It’s clear that the
market wants to hear comforting words at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
The developing
correlation between oil and equities is strengthening as investors are
beginning to fear a large-scale energy sector credit event.
FINNISH
Saksan luottamus horjuu kehittyvien talouksien heikkouden
vuoksi * Irak pumppasi öljyä ennätystahtiin joulukuussa * Öljyn hinnanlasku
kasvatti turvasatamakysyntää * USA:n kuluttajien luottamus pysyy korkealla
Risto Pennanen: Turistit vievät tilaa pakolaisilta – TalSa
Rikollisten masinoima maahanmuuttoaalto estää EU-maita
auttamasta niitä, jotka apua kaipaisivat kaikista kipeimmin. EU:n on otettava
ohjakset omiin käsiinsä.
Pörssiyhtiöt menettäneet
miljoonia valetoimitusjohtajille – YLE
FBI: Valetoimitusjohtajat vieneet
lähes kaksi miljardia euroa – YLE
TALOUSPOLITIIKAN ARVIOINTINEUVOSTO
Talouspolitiikan
arviointineuvosto repii auki hallituksen keinopakettia – YLE
Kilpailukykypaketin
ja pakkolakien laskelmat eivät ole kohdallaan, lisäksi leikkaukset koulutukseen
syövät Suomen tulevaa kasvua. Näin lataa Talouspolitiikan arviointineuvosto
kritiikkiä hallituksen sopeutustoimista. Sen sijaan suurta kuvaa eli
sopeutustoimien mitoitusta ja aikataulua kiitellään.
Professorit pakkolakien
työllisyysvaikutuksista: Epärealistisen suuria – TalSa
Hallituksen
pitäisi välttää koulutuksen laatuun ja tutkimukseen kohdistuvia leikkauksia.
Näin arvioi viidestä professorista koostuva talouspolitiikkaa arvioiva
neuvosto.
Hallituksen talouslinjaukset
saavat sapiskaa talouspolitiikan arviointineuvostolta – HS
Neuvosto
arvioi pakkolakipakettia ”riskialttiiksi” ja kummeksuu verolinjauksia.
The EU’s Fiscal
Targets and Their Economic Impact in Finland – ETLA
Tuloverotuksen vaikutus työn tarjontaan – VATT