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EUROPE
Italy, Greece, Financials, European Stocks,
Peripheral Bonds Plunge – ZH
ECB Stimulus Is Working, Council Members Say
Before Meeting – BB
More ECB easing just a
matter of time – ABN
AMRO
Poland Faces Barrage as Defiant Leaders Collide
With Europe – BB
Poland's Planned Mortgage Conversion Is `Pure
Evil,' Belka Says – BB
MIGRANT
CRISIS
The Refugee Surge in Europe:
Economic Challenges – IMF
Refugees to Provide
Economic Boost to Europe, IMF Study Says – BB
Merkel faces rising
Bavarian discontent on refugees – Politico
Cologne puts Germany’s
‘lying press’ on defensive – Politico
German president backs
Merkel in rejecting limit on refugees – Politico
Austria caps refugee
numbers – Politico
EU to shift refugee
burden to northern states – FT
How the EU plans to
overhaul ‘Dublin Regulation’ on asylum claims – FT
On scrapping the ‘first
country of entry’ rule – Open
Europe
UNITED STATES
Bridgewater's Dalio: Fed's next move toward QE,
not tightening – CNBC
OTHER
World faces wave of epic debt defaults, fears
central bank veteran – The
Telegraph
Exclusive: Situation
worse than it was in 2007, says chairman of the OECD's review committee
Jan von Gerich: Don’t sell everything – Nordea
The recent market
turbulence has raised worries of something bigger brewing, especially as
central banks are perceived to have only limited ammunition left to tackle
another crisis. While equity market sell-offs can cause macroeconomic shocks,
usually the direction goes the other way. It would be premature to conclude we
are heading to another recession, and a mere stabilization of oil prices could
be sufficient to turn risk appetite. Still, in the very short term, safe assets
will prevail.
Amy Yuan Zhuang: China Outlook: Financial risks
dominate this year – Nordea
We have kept our GDP
forecasts unchanged for 2016 and 2017. Despite the stock market double dip at
the beginning of the year and renewed depreciation pressure on the CNY, the
risk of an outright economic crisis in China is limited. Massive economic
policy easing will prevent growth from sliding to sharply. Financial market
instability will be the largest risk this year, as confidence in Beijing’s
regulation capabilities is fading.
Helge J. Pedersen: Falling oil prices will not
lead to global recession
– Nordea
Concern over the global
growth outlook has led to a tough start in the financial markets in 2016. The
stock markets have plunged and oil prices have continued the downward spiral
that started in mid-2014 when the price was around USD 110/barrel. The price is
now below USD 30/barrel, a low since 2003.
FX: Persistent market volatility should support
funding currencies – Pictet
The risks implied by the
Fed’s tightening cycle and the new Chinese monetary regime, among other things,
will favour funding currencies over carry currencies in the next twelve months.
Capital flight from China worse than thought – FT
The flow of capital out
of China and other emerging markets was significantly worse than previously
thought in 2015, according to new estimates.
Charting the Markets: Global Stocks Sink to 2
1/2-Year Low – BB
Japan enters a bear
market, energy shares drop for a 4th day and flight to safety benefits U.K.
gilts.
Saudi Arabia Said to Ban Betting Against Its
Currency – BB
Saudi Arabia Unleashes Capital Controls: Bans
Bets Against Dollar Peg
– ZH
Oil's Nightmare Scenario Dominates Davos – BB
Glencore, UBS and IEA
don't expect recovery any time soon * Industry faces new scenario: `a lot lower
for a lot longer'
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View
/ BB
Bank Gloom and Trading
Insights
REGULARS
U.S. Stocks Rise, Barely
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Tuesday’s ‘Rally’ Didn’t Take the
Pressure Off
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Oil keeps crashing, no appetite for
risk, even though China could ease * US CPI inflation to take another step
upwards * Risk appetite gone in the wind * China could expand stimulus
Morning Markets – TF
GBPUSD hit a seven-year low
overnight and is now in reach of a key psychological barrier at 1.40. The IMF
helped propel Asian equities towards a hideous session after it downgraded
global growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 on the back of China woes and the
ongoing rout of oil.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Markets Resume New Year Slide
Daily Shot – TF
Emerging Markets
currencies have been hit by a relentless selloff amid a broad shift to risk
aversion across asset classes. Currencies including the Mexican peso the Indian
rupee and others have been hit hard. Meanwhile the US dollar continues to rally
posing the question of whether the Federal Reserve is looking back at its
December rate hike with regret.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
European Commission to
propose scrapping rule allowing EU member states to return asylum seekers to
first country of entry * MEPs warn billions of EU aid spending mismanaged * Polish
Prime Minister defends controversial domestic reforms in front of MEPs * Merkel
to face cold reception from Bavarian sister party over her refugee policies * Support
for Merkel and her party continues to slide in wake of continuing migration
crisis * Polish Finance Minister says joining the euro is not a priority * Varoufakis
claims Germany blocked Chinese investment into Greece * IMF warns tide of
refugees is testing EU’s political systems * Cameron calls for EU to relax
trade rules with Jordan to help Syrian refugees
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Davos Special Edition —
EU ambassador musical chairs
US Open – ZH
Markets In TurmOIL: Futures Plunge,
Japan Enters Bear Market, Crude And Commodity Currencies Crash
Frontrunning – ZH
Failure to stage a rally
in major asset markets ahead of key support levels overnight raises the risk
that markets could lurch into full deleveraging mode with further carnage in
JPY crosses and the other usual suspects. So it’s stand or fall today for risk
appetite.
John J Hardy Saxo Bank's
head of FX strategy kicks off the European session with the starkest of
warnings: "This is no time to be a hero. There's further risk of market
meltdown. The position is pretty scary across asset classes."
FINNISH
Riksbank
tienristeyksessä * USA:n inflaatio hivuttautuu ylöspäin * Saksan
rahoitusmarkkinoiden luottamus heikkeni * Brasilian keskuspankki kiristää
rahapolitiikkaa tänään
IMF: Pakolaiskriisin hintalappu Suomelle EU:n korkeimpia –
TE
Elo: Suomen irtauduttava Schengen-alueesta – Verkkouutiset
Rydman: Komission suunnitelmat nakertavat EU:n
uskottavuutta – Verkkouutiset