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EUROPE
Juhani Huopainen: A new year dawns, a new euro
crisis beckons – TF
UK’s EU-referendum and
France’s presidential polls will be key in Europe * Greece to provide the usual
crisis scenario, a repeat of 2015 * Angela Merkel stumbles, but does not fall -
a policy shift could be coming
Portugal's Bank Bail-In Sets a Dangerous
Precedent – View
/ BB
As Europe belatedly gets
around to repairing its weakest banks, investors who have lent to financial
institutions by buying bonds face a brave new world.
The end of Schengen? – The
Independent
Restrictions by Denmark
and Sweden are 'threatening Europe's passport-free zone'
Raoul Ruparel: What to watch in Europe in 2016 – Open Europe
Euro area: The ECB will not like these inflation
numbers – Nordea
Denmark’s central bank stepped up FX
intervention in December
– Danske
Bank
UK: Reduced Brexit risk if a deal is reached in
February – Nordea
The latest poll from
YouGov on voting intention in the planned in-out referendum on EU membership
shows an exact 41% to 41% tie. Even though voters seem evenly split in Britain
at this stage it’s too early to draw any conclusions from the polls. There is
still no “Brexit” plan and we don’t even know when the referendum will actually
take place. We believe that the Prime Minister David Cameron will reach a deal
on his reform proposals at the European Council meeting in February.
UNITED STATES
5 Things to Watch in the Fed’s December Minutes – WSJ
OTHER
John J Hardy: What
to watch after that rocky start for FX in 2016 – TF
After
a rocky start, four things may dominate 2016 * Pace of Fed hikes is crucial * Markets'
ability to withstand QE removal to be tested * Saudi Arabia could depeg the
riyal from the dollar * Will China renminbi devaluations continue apace?
IMF Survey: The Global Economy in 2016 – IMF
Top goal: a sustainable
path for global growth * Emerging markets, developing economies face tougher
conditions * Geopolitical tensions magnify economic challenges
Jan von Gerich: Strategy 2016: More divergence
in bond spreads – Nordea
Supply and demand
dynamics suggest Dutch and Irish bonds will be among the winners in 2016, while
Austrian and especially Finnish bonds will fare much worse. The pecking order
of the semi-core is thus about to see further changes. Spanish bonds will
continue to feel the heat of political risks in the near term, but offer
potential over Italian bonds longer out.
Martin Enlund: Strategy 2016: What could derail
the USD in 2016? – Nordea
The USD has been gaining
on a trade-weighted basis since 2011, and it has been on an absolute tear for
the past two years. Our main scenario is one involving further gains of the
greenback also in 2016. Which are the “Gray Swans” which could derail the
dollar this year?
PBoC should stop the silliness and float the RMB – Lars
Christensen
The Enigmatic Yen--It is
More than an Equity Story – Marc
Chandler
Great Graphic: The Euro
Touchstone – Marc
Chandler
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Fall Hard After China
Rout
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
What a Rough Start to the Year Means
for Stocks
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
China, US and geopolitics weighing
on markets * No increase in Euro-area inflation * Risk-off sends global yields
lower * Riksbank ready to weaken SEK with FX interventions
Morning Markets – TF
China's steadied the
ship with a $20 billion injection but the end of a six-month ban next Monday on
institutional sales has left markets fearing an even bigger exodus.
Focus is Squarely on
Equities, Dollar and Yen Firmer
Daily Shot – TF
Chinese equities have dragged global
markets through the mud since Monday's open and the selloff continued into the
New York session. What's going wrong in the Middle Kingdom?
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
BBC: Cameron to give
ministers free rein in EU referendum campaign * Merkel rejects call by sister
party to cap refugees at 200,000 * Britain’s aid spending far outstrips that of
France and Germany * European Commission to review Polish government’s actions
on constitutional court and media – but no formal investigation yet * Denmark
reintroduces checks on its border with Germany * Channel Tunnel runner granted
asylum in the UK * Rajoy asks Socialists for support to form new Spanish
government * Creditors expected to seek changes to Greek government plan for
pension reform * Leader of Catalan anti-system party gives up seat as deadline
to form new regional government approaches
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Poland’s PR pushback —
Migration rumbles
US Open – ZH
Stocks Resume Rout After
Massive Chinese Intervention Fails To Lift Shanghai, Calm Traders
Frontrunning – ZH
The action in EURUSD has been
bottled up in a narrow range since the December 3 ECB shocker but now it looks
like time to test the lower edge of the range around 1.0800 possibly on another
weak Eurozone CPI print today.
While stocks were
plummeting yesterday the reaction was particularly strong among Germany's
biggest equities opening up a potential short-term trade.
FINNISH
Valuuttavuosi
2016 – mitä luvassa? * Riksbankin pääjohtajalle valtuudet päättää
valuuttainterventioista * Kiinan teollisuussektorin vaikeudet todennäköisesti
lisäävät elvytystoimia * USA:n teollisuuden luottamus putosi heikoimmalle
tasolleen sitten finanssikriisin
Heikko Eurooppa – kenen syytä se on – Tyhmyri