Previously on MoreLiver’s:
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EUROPE
Denmark: GDP growth disappointed in 2015 but the outlook for the coming
years is slightly brighter Sweden:
Despite strong GDP growth, low inflation is likely to prompt further monetary
easing Norway: Slowdown in the oil
industry has been offset by public and consumer spending
Finland: Economy to stop contracting but not likely to recover much in
2016
Brexit is named one of
the biggest risks for GBP in 2016 - but it may turn out a bigger risk for the
EUR, so bet on lower EUR/GBP on Brexit scenario. Position for a stronger GBP in
H1 as the BoE-Fed pricing to converge. Biggest risk for GBP is BoE "behind
the curve" due to housing market and external balances.
MIGRANT
CRISIS
EU Is Temporarily Closed
Until Solidarity Returns – euinside
EU aid to Turkey fails
to stem migrant flow – FT
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
Financial markets are
stumbling into the new year. The Fed is sticking to its story. Given that
January is off the table for a rate hike, we have two and a half months of data
- including three employment reports! - to see if the Fed has it right this
time.
Officials mentioned five
measures in their December minutes
JOBS
PREVIEW
5 Things to Watch in the
December Jobs Report – WSJ
U.S. Jobs Data Take on
Added Importance With Markets in Turmoil – BB
OTHER
Barely six months after the last round of financial market turmoil in
China, the market is getting another rollercoaster ride. After just four
trading days in 2016, the Chinese stock market has fallen 12% and the CNH lost
2% vs. the USD. We see panic selloffs and lack of consistent and transparent
policy regulation as the main triggers rather than a looming economic hard
landing. More intervention is expected from Beijing but the volatility could
remain for days or weeks.
George Soros Sees Crisis
in Global Markets That Echoes 2008 – BB
Soros: It's the 2008
crisis all over again – CNBC
Is this really 2008 all
over again? – The
Economist
REGULARS
U.S. Stocks Hit by Global Fears
China Rattles Markets Around the
Globe
Lower Chinese equities, weaker CNY,
lower oil prices… Just another day in 2016 * Another bad day in China * Risk-off
with geopolitical risks sending yields lower * Record-low oil prices burden NOK
further
Trading across all Chinese equity
markets was halted less that 30 minutes after today’s open in an unnerving
replay of last August’s market meltdown. The plunge has jolted global markets
into a deep state of risk aversion and bolstered safe-haven assets such as gold
the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.
Is it Too Early To Talk about Annus
Horribilis?
Labour market remains the shining
star in US economy * Other indicators suggest US economy is slowing * FOMC
minutes: Fed needs to see confirmation that inflation will actually rise before
additional rate increases * Gradual pace of rate hikes most appropriate
strategy for Fed
Global markets were rattled
by the People's Bank of China's weakening of the yuan on Thursday by the most
since the crisis of August last year in a bid to stimulate growth as the
economy stalls. The bank's action spooked world markets sending the S&P 500
crude oil and currencies exposed to China sharply lower.
Cameron appeals to
German Chancellor and public in bid to secure support from ‘key ally’ * Banks
warn of Brexit disruption but suggest it might not be the end of the UK as an
international financial centre * Sarkozy: Some EU powers must return to member
states * ORB poll finds 7 point lead for UK leaving the EU, though over 20% of
voters say they are undecided * Merkel’s sister party calls for a “complete
U-turn” on refugee policy * Irish Taoiseach claims Brexit may cause border
controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic to return * Former Italian
PM: Europe must be changed, not destroyed in the name of easy votes * Catalan
separatist parties hold one last meeting to try and avoid re-run regional
elections * Asylum claims in UK hit largest number on record * EU and US splits
over securitisation concern investors
Commission on tour —
Cameron in Budapest — Refugee goldrush
Global Stocks Crash After Spiraling
Chinese Devaluation Unleashes Worldwide Chaos And Selling
Another meltdown in
China overnight after a weak session yesterday for US equities has risk appetite
on the defensive after neither US data nor the FOMC minutes made an impression.
This has seen USDJPY push on the key 118.00 area and EURUSD interacting with
1.0800 overnight.
The word
"crisis" is back in vogue as China's economic woes spread carnage and
fears of contagion across markets on Thursday. Another steep plunge in Chinese
stocks triggered a trading halt and currency intervention by China's central
bank while a further slide in oil prices heightened the sense of crisis.
FINNISH
Riksbank
joutuu interventioimaan valuuttamarkkinoilla * Kiinan pörssit ehtivät olla
torstaina avoinna vain puoli tuntia * Kiina-huolet painavat öljyn hintaa *
Euroalueen inflaatio pysytteli ennallaan
Suomen synkkä tulevaisuus (7) Sisäinen devalvaatio – Osmo
Soininvaara