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EUROPE
Benoît Cœuré: Rebalancing in the euro area: are
we nearly there yet? – ECB
ECB preview: Willing and able, but not ready – Nordea
The ECB remains willing
and able to act, but will not be in any rush to do so at the January meeting.
Despite the plunged oil prices, longer-term inflation expectations have not
fallen to new lows. The door will be left wide open for more measures at the March
meeting, but no firm signals about imminent easing are likely to be in store.
There is a risk Draghi will use too much time on justifying how much the ECB is
already doing, and thus cause a small rise in bond yields and the euro.
Juncker ‘not going to give up on Schengen’ – Politico
5 reasons Germany’s influence is fading – Politico
Brussels Briefing: Is Angela Merkel in trouble? – FT
Zloty Tumbles as Polish Bonds Slide on S&P
Cut – BB
UNITED STATES
So You Think A Recession Is Imminent, Yield
Curve Edition – Tim
Duy
Don't discount the yield
curve just yet. I think it is signaling something important about the limits of
monetary policy "normalization." But it is also a signal that
recession concerns are overblown. Even in a zero short rate world, the long end
needs to plunge much deeper before the yield curve becomes a concern.
The 2010 FOMC transcripts are out – FT
Retail Sales decreased
0.1% in December – Bill
McBride
December core retail
sales disappoint – Pictet
Fed: Industrial
Production decreased 0.4% in December – Bill
McBride
Preliminary January
Consumer Sentiment increases to 93.3 – Bill
McBride
Raft of weak U.S. data
points to sharply slower growth – Reuters
Economic Growth in U.S.
Cracking Under Strain of Global Slowdown – BB
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Turn Higher
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Nervousness rules, equities and oil
lower again * Today focus on US retail sales and industrial production * US
short rates drop to December lows * EUR bid as ECB casts doubt over inflation
measures
Morning Markets – TF
Asian equities opened with a hop and
a skip in their step spurred by the US equities rally but that soon gave way
after a tepid oil rally reversed and China disappointed again with yet more
poor data.
Daily Shot – TF
In China the
offshore-onshore yuan spread widens again and the question is whether Beijing
will react to that. Low commodity prices are a big challenge in countries like
Peru. India suffers as capital outflows increased as global risk aversion
worsened.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Osborne sees “essential
pieces” of renegotiation falling into place and warns EU referendum is “crucial
decision of our lifetimes” * Commission official suggests February summit could
be decisive in securing UK-EU deal * The Sun calls on Theresa May to lead
Brexit campaign * Wilders: Brexit would create ‘enormous incentive’ for others
to follow * EU Home Affairs Commissioner: Refugee relocation scheme has not
delivered the expected results * Reuters: ECB governing council members don’t
see further ECB easing in near future * Merkel under pressure from her party to
raise issue of prolonged low rates with ECB * German Constitutional Court to
hold second hearing into legality of ECB OMT on 16 February * Eurozone and
Greece confirm IMF to remain involved in Greek bailout
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Poles to Parliament —
Refugee policy fails — Davos preview
US Open – ZH
Global Risk Off: China Reenters Bear
Market, Oil Tumbles Under $30; Global Stocks, US Futures Gutted
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
Worries about China's
economic health and the protracted weakness in crude oil prices remain the two
most potent forces at play in the world's financial markets. Once again their
pernicious influence has dragged Asian and European equities lower hobbled
forex and propelled vols to new levels of fear.
FINNISH
Kaksi hutia riittää taivuttamaan Riksbankin * Öljyn
hinnanlasku tasaantui eilen * EKP:n sisällä erimielisyyksiä elvytyksen
suuruudesta * USA:n vähittäismyynti ja teollisuustuotanto julkaistaan tänään