Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s post is here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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LAST WEEK
Banks
Battered As Yen-magedddon Sends Stocks To Worst Week In 2 Months
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
U.S.
Bank Earnings, IMF, China GDP, Golf
Suffering
bank investors search for bright spots
Weighing the Week
Ahead
– Jeff
Miller
The
economic calendar is moderate. Fed Heads are out in force. More significant is
the start of “earnings season.” There is always speculation about earnings, but
this time is special. I expect a focus on the question: Will earnings spark a
break in the trading range for stocks?
Greater
risk appetite - Oil prices rebound, currencies pick up and risk premiums
decline. Risk appetite for emerging economies has increased * US: Already over?
- The job market’s dynamic momentum has been confirmed, with robust job
creations, low unemployment rate, rebound in the participation rate and wage
growth. ISM surveys point to a rebound in activity, an improvement that should
be sustained, based on particularly upbeat “production” and “new orders”
components. Rate expectations – which are too low according to Boston Fed
President Eric Rosengren – should begin to pick up. * Japan: Gloomy Tankan - The
Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey indicates a worsening in Q1 activity. In addition
this is likely to continue in Q2, as the anticipation index fell down to almost
zero, its lowest level since Q2 2013.
Chinese
data, Fed speeches and inflation figures will dominate next week. Chinese GDP
growth (Q1) is likely to show the lowest reading since the global financial
crisis. The Fed speeches will most likely confirm that the FOMC is split on how
long to keep rates steady. Inflation figures for US, UK, China, the Euro area
and the Nordics will be published throughout the week. Last but not least, we
expect a slightly more dovish tone from the Bank of England.
US
CPI, private consumption * UK BoE * China CPI
Pressure
points are building in global markets as the risk rally appears exhausted * The
downward pressure on EUR/DKK and DKK rates are likely to continue in coming
months * Negative interest rates have shown its limitations in Japan while the
Riksbank signals that the
transmission
mechanism is broken * We are in a weak USD environment as we are at the bottom
of the ‘USD smile’ * Core euro yields should fall further on ECB QE, low
inflation expectations and political risks * We are positive on EM equities relative
to DM equities.
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Deterioration
in risk sentiment dominates FX markets. Brexit uncertainty comes more to the
fore… and the yen strongly outperforms this week. AUD and NZD lower because of
rising risks of rate cuts. Improving outlook in China supports Asian
currencies.
Forex
traders are in a state of technical limbo as EURUSD has stalled at the heightss
without making a break higher and USDJPY has bounced after a protracted and
dramatic plunge. Commodity currencies meanwhile wobbled but were not exactly
flattened but markets look nothing if not choppy and uncertain from this
vantage.
Speculative
Positioning
– Marc
Chandler
Specs
Shift to Net Long Canadian Dollar and Set New Record Gross Long Yen
Little
Technical Evidence that Greenback's Slump is Over