Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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LAST WEEK
US
Stocks Hold Doha-Dud Gains As US Macro Crashes Most In 14 Months
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Fed
Meeting, U.S. GDP, Primaries, Brazil
Greece,
Terror and Trade
Upside
limited for 2016 even as earnings bottom
Weighing the Week
Ahead
– Jeff
Miller
The
economic calendar has more news, including a meeting of the FOMC. Earnings
season is in full swing. Despite all of the substantive news, the punditry
loves to discuss markets, especially when they are challenging the old highs.
Many will be asking: Will stocks (finally) set a new record high?
EcoWeek – BNP
Paribas
Editorial: Mario Draghi’s
refutes criticism from Germany: “Monetary policy has been the only policy in
the last four years to support growth” * China:
The authorities are broadening their scope of action on the fiscal policy front
in order to stimulate domestic demand. Government deficit and debt have
increased, and if the sovereign risk remains very good, it is under mounting
pressure due to the slowdown and the rise in contingent risks. * US: In March, core inflation slowed a
bit, for reasons that remain hard to be definitive about. Some factors plead
for inflation to stabilise (oil prices, past appreciation of the USD,
expectations). Others call for further improvement (the narrowing output gap,
the normalising labour market).
Central
bank action will continue also next week. The Fed is unlikely to be ready to
signal it is preparing another rate hike, but the Bank of Japan is set to
introduce more stimulus. The data calendar looks interesting as well, with GDP
releases from the US, the UK and the Euro area, while also Euro-area inflation
numbers will be released. In the Nordics, labour market data will be
scrutinized in both Sweden and Norway.
Fed
to maintain rates unchanged in line with expectations and pricing * BoJ to cut
rates, increase QE * US PCE core inflation to fall to 1.5% from 1.7%
The
emerging market rally has further to go on the Fed, China and balances * The
oil recovery is the result of expectations of improving demand, not a supply
freeze * The BoJ is set to ease next week but helicopter money may be the end
game * The ECB remains sidelined in the currency war but EUR/USD should still
fall into the UK’s EU referendum * Emerging market currencies and equities set
to outperform developed markets
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The
ECB kept policy on hold, while signalling that the door is still open for
further policy easing. Meanwhile both the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey and its
Survey of Professional Forecasters suggest that its past policy measures are
bearing fruit. April business surveys suggest the eurozone economy will stay on
a path of ongoing moderate recovery.
trad
Higher
oil prices supported related currencies and boosted investor sentiment. Risk of
near term rate cut in Australia and New Zealand has declined. US dollar under
pressure ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. JPY has stabilised ahead of BoJ
monetary policy meeting
Speculative
Positioning
– Marc
Chandler
Speculators
Continued to Reduce US Dollar Exposure at What may be the Bottom
Dollar's
Technical Tone Improves