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EUROPE
Ifo German Business Climate
Edges Downwards – CESifo
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Vítor Constâncio: The new ECB Macroprudential
Bulletin – vox
Since the Crisis,
macroprudential policy has become a necessary complement to monetary policy.
The ECB is striving to be a major contributor to the growing body of thought
about the role and instruments of this new policy area. In this column,
Vice-President Vítor Constâncio introduces the new bi-annual ECB
Macroprudential Bulletin aimed at widening awareness about the Bank's
macroprudential policy mandate, enhancing transparency, and informing about
current ECB discussions and approaches in the field.
CSPP: ‘Public undertakings’ could derail success
of the programme – ABN
AMRO
Much depends on the
interpretation of a ‘public undertaking’, which states that not government
ownership but dominant influence is the key criterion. The Issue share limit
for ‘Public undertakings’ is limited to 33% * Together with the 70% issue share limit for
other corporates, this could limit the CSPP programme size to just EUR 373bn
The ECB’s Corporate QE Revives an Old Hazard – ECB
Criticisms applied to
the ECB's sovereign QE are conspicuously absent when it comes to corporate bond
buying
Press release Financial integration in Europe – ECB
Financial re-integration
trend moderates, but ambitious capital markets union will boost benefits of
integration
Financial integration in Europe, 2016 – ECB
Sovereign risk and bank risk-taking – ECB
UNITED STATES
Fed caught in 'negative
feedback loop,' Goldman's Beinner says * Treasuries tumble on improved outlook
for jobs, inflation
FOMC preview – Danske
Bank
June hike unlikely as
Yellen emphasises downside risks
Narayana Kocherlakota: The Fed's Inflation Fail – View
/ BB
The central bank may be
losing its grip on inflation expectations.
FOMC preview – Marc
Chandler
Global Tensions
Lessened, but Bound to Increase Ahead of June FOMC Meeting
OTHER
FX: USD strikes back – Nordea
The short term odds
favour USD; if rates rise sharply - USD strength temporary, if rates fall - we
could see another lasting bull run. Positioning not universal - CHF and JPY best
shorts, while GBP good to buy...
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
FOMC and BoJ meetings this week, GDP
flash estimates * This week: A cautious FOMC, more action from BoJ and flash
GDPs * Worst weekly selloff in Bunds and Treasuries * GBP continues to rise
Morning Markets – TF
Equity markets across Asia started the
week on a sour note as an embattled yen continues to weaken against the dollar
and traders awaited the week's standout event - Thursday's Bank of Japan
monetary policy meeting.
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Dollar Pares Pre-Weekend Gains
Against Euro and Yen
Daily Market Comment
– Macro
Man
Monday morning bullet points
Daily Shot – TF
The risks of the UK
leaving the European Union via a June referendum are weighing on British
investment and job creation, and UK sovereign credit default swap spreads have
widened. Short GBP positions are building up. Elsewhere, US manufacturing is in
its worst shape since 2009, according to Markit Economics, and the
futures-implied probability of a US rate hike is seen at 20%, though some
believe it should be higher.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Obama warns UK would be
“in the back of the queue” for trade talks in the event of Brexit * Home
Secretary admits EU makes it harder to control immigration as Justice Secretary
says EU membership poses threat to UK’s public services * Gove: If we vote to
stay in the EU, we accept losing our veto forever * Obama says EU-US trade deal
may not be concluded “for quite some time” unless it is wrapped up before he
leaves office * Far-right candidate wins first round of Austrian presidential
election * EU finance ministers split on tax transparency plans * UK to discuss
deploying naval patrols in Libyan waters with US and key EU partners * Greece
examines contingent legislation in effort to complete current bailout review
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Far-right rises in
Austria — Obama in Europe — Tusk risk
US Open – ZH
Futures Rebound Off Lows Following
Chinese Intervention; Oil Dips Ahead Of Fed, BOJ
Frontrunning – ZH
A huge rally in USDJPY
on Friday may have been more inspired by record JPY longs more than real
anticipation of new BoJ easing this week. Elsewhere a rally in sterling also
looks linked to positioning ahead of this week’s two key market events
Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Thursday’s BoJ announcement.
The Bank of Japan may
finally be waking up to the fact that without fiscal support it really can't do
much on its own as yen strength once again begins to gather before a pivotal
meeting on Thursday.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Tällä
viikolla luvassa Fedin kokous ja USA:n BKT-luvut: Fed nostaa vasta jouluksi * Euroalueen
talouskasvu kiihtyy hivenen * Japanin keskuspankki todennäköisesti kasvattaa
osto-ohjelmaansa torstaina
Euroalueen
keskuspankit alkavat pian lapioida uunituoretta rahaa eurovaltioiden ja
pankkien lisäksi suoraan yrityksille. Mitä EKP rahakokeillaan saakaan aikaan,
tuskin se edistää markkinataloutta. EU-sopimusten mukaan pitäisi.