Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s post is here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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on Twitter
LAST WEEK
Weekly Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
Succinct summation
of week’s events
– The Big Picture
Weekly Market Review - ZH
Stocks Spike On
"Good Jobs" As Crude Crashes
NEXT WEEK
US
Schedule for Week – Bill McBride
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
5
Things to Watch on the US Economic Calendar – WSJ
Week Ahead – BB
Fed
Minutes, U.S. Services, Yellen and Draghi to speak, Wisconsin holds
presidential primary
Wall St Week Ahead – Reuters
Investors
to sift for clues in Fed tug-of-war
Weighing
the Week Ahead – Jeff Miller
The calendar continues
in something of an alternating mode. Last week had plenty of important data;
this week has little. Instead we get multiple speeches from Fed Presidents and
Governors and the release of the last FOMC minutes. Little data plus lots of
Fed news is a natural draw for the punditry. This week they will be asking: Is
the Fed too optimistic?
EcoWeek – BNP
Paribas
Global: Monetary
gradualism in an effort to support confidence - Faced with uncertainty about
the global economy, Janet Yellen sends a dovish message. Eurozone data send
conflicting signals in the first quarter: good in terms of activity and sales,
mixed in terms of sentiment. Rebound in Chinese PMI brings some relief. US: You don’t change a winning team - The
first quarter is on track to once more be a disappointment. Whether it will or
will not be followed by the usual rebound is anyone’s guess. The Fed, not being
in the guessing business, is easing its policy. Japan: The year starts off slowly - 2015 ended on a negative note
and the first data released for Q1 do not indicate a short term rebound in
growth either. Conversely a fall in Q1 GDP seems very likely. France: Significant reduction in the
2015 fiscal deficit - In 2015, France’s fiscal deficit reached 3.5% of GDP
(preliminary estimate), marking a significant improvement from 2014 (-0.5
points). Higher GDP growth and slower growth in public spending account for
this better than expected result.
Week Ahead: How
dovish is the Fed?
– Nordea
Fedspeak
will set the tone in the week ahead. Recent speeches have sent signals in all
directions, so we will be looking to Yellen (Thu) and the FOMC minutes (Wed) to
straighten out the Fed's intentions, which are most likely dovish. In the Euro
Area, the ECB publishes data on loan and deposit interest rates (Mon), which
will give important indications of whether new rate cuts are in the pipeline.
Finally, China releases data on its FX reserves, which we expect to show
stabilisation (Thu).
Week Ahead – Danske
Bank
Tue:
US ISM Services Wed: Fed minutes Thu: ECB minutes. Fed speeches all week.
Strategy – Danske
Bank
Dovish
major central banks and a weaker dollar continue to support global risk
sentiment * Furthermore, we see an emerging recovery in the highly important
Chinese construction sector * This should support commodity (notably metals)
dependent currencies and equity markets * We remain positive on the euro area govies
in light of weak inflation expectations and scaling up of the ECB QE programme.
Week Ahead – Handelsbanken
UK Week Ahead – Handelsbanken
Global Week Ahead – Scotiabank
Weekly Market
Outlook
– Moody’s
[free
registration required]
Macro Weekly: Is
global inflation turning? – ABN AMRO
Recent
inflation reports in the US and eurozone have been firmer, commodity prices are
up and global goods deflation has eased. Although headline inflation will turn
up later in the year, underlying inflationary pressures will likely remain
subdued. Global economic growth remains lacklustre, while overcapacity in
China’s industrial sector will remain a disinflationary force. Wage growth is
moderate in the US and weak in the eurozone and some of the recent rise in
consumer prices is driven by special factors.
FX Weekly: USD out
of favour
– ABN AMRO
Dovish
comments from Fed Chair Yellen weigh on the US dollar. Dollar has been weak
across the board with commodity FX in favour. Weaker US data will likely weigh
on the dollar going forward. RBA to keep OCR unchanged, carry trades trend to
persist.
Speculative
Positioning – Marc Chandler
FX
Outlook – Marc Chandler
Weekly
Market Summary – The Fat Pitch