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EUROPE
Anatole Kaletsky: Roman Europe? – Project
Syndicate
As the EU disintegrates,
Germany has shown that it cannot provide the leadership needed to save
it. With the UK, France,
and Spain unwilling or unable to take on the role, that leaves Italy, which is
resuming its historic role as a source of Europe’s best ideas and leadership in
politics, and also, most surprisingly, in economics.
Schaeuble Channels Meghan Trainor: No – Marc
Chandler
Europe Monthly – Daiwa
Despite the swoon in
financial markets at the start of the year, euro area GDP growth likely remained
steady in Q1. But extra stimulus, particularly from fiscal policy, will be
required to prevent lowflation and negative rates becoming a permanent feature
of the euro area economy.
Russia Economic Review – Daiwa
Despite failed talks in
Doha, the relative stability of oil prices and the rouble has been maintained.
Domestic demand remains weak, but real wage growth in February provides cause
for optimism.
The former Italian prime
minister and European commissioner blames cynical national governments for
endangering the unity of the bloc.
Marine Le Pen hopes Britain inspires others to
quit EU ‘swamp’ – Politico
The National Front
leader plans a visit to the UK before the referendum.
Denmark’s second-biggest
party also eying a rethink on the EU.
PIIGS
The Euro's Next Existential Crisis – View
/ BB
So long as at least one
of the four rating agencies judges Portugal to be worthy, its government debt
remains eligible to participate in the ECB's bond-buying program. But if the
country drops to sub-investment grade at all four, the ECB’s own rules forbid
it from buying any more Portuguese government securities
Spain Political Deadlock May Spur New Elections
and Market Woes – BB
Greece Faces New IMF Curve Ball to Unlock Aid:
Scenarios – BB
Creditors' demand for
fiscal `contingency measures' is thorny * Risk resurfaces of ruptures in the
ruling Syriza party
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Why Eurozone Inflation Expectations Are Going Up
and Down at the Same Time –
WSJ
Investors believe in
slightly higher inflation in the near term, but are increasingly gloomy about
the central bank's power to stoke up prices over the longer run
German parliament to
invite Draghi to testify on ECB policy: sources – Reuters
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
Fed preview: Dovish expectations and the lurking
hawk – TF
Investors believe the
Fed is stuck and is only able to raise rates slowly – perhaps only once in
2016. Everyone is perhaps a bit too comfortable. A hawkish surprise – maybe
this week or in June – could be ahead.
El-Erian: What to Watch for at the Fed Meeting – View
/ BB
FOMC preview: Fed to open the door for a June
rate hike? – Nordea
A Fed rate hike is
highly unlikely at this week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes tomorrow. We
expect the FOMC again to refrain from making an explicit risk assessment,
indicating an extended policy pause. The risk, however, is tilted towards a
mildly hawkish statement, opening the door for a rate hike in June.
EURUSD: cataloguing the Fed’s fears – Nordea
While the Fed has become
PhDs in pessimism, their long list of worries will be looking less problematic
in coming months. In Europe, we are likely to see more negative effects due to
the appreciation of the EUR while Eurostoxx banks suggests downside risks to
loan growth later in 2016. We remain in the sell-on-rallies camp regarding
EUR/USD.
What happens if the Fed gets less dovish? – Cam
Hui
Despite the dovish tilt
of the Yellen Fed, BCA Research pointed out that the Fed seems to go through a
stop-start hawk-dove policy loop - and we are currently nearing a dovish
extreme.A reversion to a more hawkish tone in its communications would
therefore be no big surprise.
5 Things to Watch at the Fed Meeting – WSJ
OTHER
John Hardy: FOMC likely to avoid impact BoJ
merely to tinker – TF
Policymakers at the US
Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will find themselves with little room to
manoeuvre when they meet this week. Watch for a Fed statement on Wednesday that
seeks to avoid impact and for the BoJ merely to tinker or do nothing at its
meeting on Thursday.
Wolfgang Münchau: The revenge of globalisation’s
losers – FT
Its failure in the west
is down to democracies’ inability to cope with the economic shocks
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Soft calendar today * Modest
disappointments from Germany and Sweden * Longer yield continue to rise * GBP
gains more as valuations stretched
Morning Markets – TF
Weaker oil prices weighed on
sentiment in Japan dragging the benchmark Nikkei 225 lower. The Shanghai
Composite clawed back into the black after surrendering early gains and Hong
Kong's Hang Seng index retreated. In Australia leading miners dragged the
benchmark S&P/ASX200 lower. Meanwhile many investors in Asia are sidelined
as they await the outcome of key central bank meetings this week – the Fed on
Wednesday and the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on
Thursday.
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Greenback Mostly Softer, Sterling
Shines
Daily Market Comment
– Macro Man
Mind the gap
Daily Shot – TF
The Bank of Japan has a
range of tools at its disposal when its policymakers meet on Thursday, and the
bank is likely to act as inflation expectations have dropped. Aggressive BoJ
easing action could prove painful for holders of a massive net long position in
JPY. In the FX markets,the euro looks too expensive based on the rate
differentials and the US dollar undervalued for the same reason.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View / BB
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
May calls on UK to
remain in EU but leave European Convention on Human Rights * Foreign Affairs
Committee sees Brexit negotiations taking more than two years but eventual
agreement in mutual interest of UK and EU * Labour Remain campaign to focus on
workers’ rights * France moves to delay EU trade talks with Latin American bloc
* Obama urges Europe to step up defence spending * Government procurement
proves major sticking point in EU-US trade talks * Greece targets agreement on
bailout review as cash position worsens * King of Spain in last-ditch talks
with political leaders to avoid repeating elections * Austrian daily
editor-in-chief: “Political life as we knew it is now a thing of the past” * Norway
to give extra cash to asylum seekers who return home
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Playbook presidential
primary — TTIP teeters
US Open – ZH
As Fed Meeting Begins Futures Are
Flat In Sleepy Session; Apple Earnings On Deck
Frontrunning – ZH
Currency traders are
reluctant to commit to fresh positions ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting where
anticipation is muted and the Bank of Japan's meeting Thursday where
uncertainty about the potential for fresh policy moves is far greater.
The iron-ore rally has
alarmed authorities in China sufficiently to take action but while that has
punctured the monster move since early April bargain-hunting investors have
turned their attention elsewhere.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Öljyä
korkoihin * Saksan talouselämän luottamus pysytteli pitkälti ennallaan *
USA:sta julkaistaan nippu lukuja tänään * Markkinoilla valmistaudutaan Fedin
huomiseen kokoukseen
Euroopan kuolema – Revalvaatio
Raimo Sailas: Talouteemme
on tulossa menetetty vuosikymmen – HS
Pääministeri
on arvioinut, että tarvittavat menojen leikkauspäätökset on nyt tehty. Valitettavasti tätä on vaikea uskoa.