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EUROPE
Dutch Referendum: Devil is not in the Details – Marc
Chandler
UNITED STATES
How low will US profits go? – ABN
AMRO
Corporate profit growth
has been falling, partly as a result of the downturn in the energy sector and
stronger US dollar. Pressure from these factors should ease somewhat in the
coming time. However, higher labour costs, which have been holding down profits
are likely to persist in the near term. We expect profit growth to continue to
decline in the coming year, albeit at a more modest pace than in 2015. However,
declining profit growth in the coming year is not signalling the start of a
recession.
How long can the US companies keep hiring? – ABN
AMRO
US service sector shows
signs of expansion but underlying components continue to show uncertainty. US
job report shows hiring reaches highest level since before the recession but we
think that job growth will slow. Weakness in eurozone’s industry compensated by
strong consumption.
Fed Has Little Reason to Hike Rates – Tim
Duy
The Fed is on hold for
at least a few months until the data provides a more definite reason to justify
another hike. With any luck, if the Fed continues to hold steady now, maybe
they will get the chance to chase the long-end of the curve higher later -
which is exactly what they need to be able to "normalize" policy.
MINUTES
5 Things to Watch for in
the Fed Minutes – WSJ
El-Erian: What to Watch
For in the Fed Minutes – View
/ BB
Minutes of March FOMC
meeting – FED
Minutes: Some
"Favored April Hike", Everyone Blamed "Global" Risks – WSJ
Fed uncertain when it
will raise interest rates again, documents show – WaPo
Many participants argued
"asymmetry made it prudent to wait” – Bill
McBride
Fed's Cautious Approach
on April Hike Raises Stakes for June – BB
Fed Officials Leaning
Against Rate Rise in April – WSJ
Fed debated April hike
but caution reigned due to global fears – Reuters
OTHER
April financial forecasts: Fed tightening
postponed – Nordea
The Fed’s Yellen has
taken a surprisingly dovish stance, and we postpone our next Fed hike until
December. In response to Fed’s soft message, we lower our bond yield forecasts
but see a steeper curve and now expect less USD strengthening than before. The
rebound in emerging market currencies is still not complete.
EM FX: April 2016 financial forecasts – Nordea
EM FX has continued to
improve since our latest update and our EM10FX spot index is now up more than
4% on the year. We stick to our forecast that the worst weakening is behind us,
that the trend in the first half of 2016 will be more sideways and that most EM
currencies will strengthen towards more fundamental equilibrium levels from the
second half of this year.
Majors & Scandies: April 2016 FX forecast – Nordea
We continue to think DM
will continue to perform decently despite headwinds from EM, but we have been
forced by a surprising shift in the Fed’s reaction function to reassess our USD
forecast. Our FX forecasts are revised as we now see the Fed/ROW policy
divergence theme going for vacation – but only for a while. We have therefore
postponed our forecast for further USD strength.
World Economic Outlook, April 2016: Analytical
Chapters – IMF
Press Briefing of the WEO – IMF
PANAMA
PAPERS
Panama partners in crime
– Golem
XIV
Why Murray Needs the
Scorecard Before He Can Name The Players – naked
capitalism
Nordea, Panama and the
”automatic” exchange of information – Matti
Ylönen
EU vows to act quickly
on Panama Papers – Politico
Who you trust with the
data and who you don’t – FT
Panama Papers And Greece
– Klaus
Kastner
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
New financial forecast: Fed
tightening postponed * Classic risk off in bonds * Safe haven currencies ended
the day higher
Morning Markets – TF
Risk-off remains in effect but Asian
stocks have managed to apply a tourniquet in the form of a positive Chinese
services reading for March which saw the world's second-largest economy report
a strong showing from its factory belt despite ongoing slowdown fears.
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Greenback Finds A Little Traction
Daily Comment
– Macro
Man
Once more unto the breach, dear
friends
Daily Comment
– Polemic’s
Pains
EU - Image is Everything.
Daily Shot – TF
Signals from Russia
point at a possible change in sentiment. Russian business sentiment remains
terrible but at least it is no longer worsening.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View / BB
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Hollande: Whatever the
result of the UK referendum, EU needs to adopt more flexible model of
integration * EU to present radical shake-up of EU asylum policy as Frontex
warns of terrorists exploiting porous borders * ECJ rules extradition must be
delayed if suspects face risk of inhuman treatment * Icelandic PM resigns
amidst fall out from Panama Papers tax avoidance revelations * ESM Chief eyes
agreement on Greek bailout review by “early May” as Germany reiterates desire
to keep IMF involved * Timmermans hopes for resolution to Polish constitutional
crisis without further EU involvement
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Brussels commuter hassle
— Dutch have their say
US Open – ZH
Stocks Rebound In Calm Trading On
Back Of Stronger Crude, Dollar
Frontrunning – ZH
The JPY remains strong
even as the recent risk appetite downdraft eased overnight as Abe comments
supported. Elsewhere market conviction is lacking and defaulting to reacting to
swings in risk appetite.
Shinzo Abe has come out firmly
against any intervention on the stronger yen and that is likely to propel JPY
stronger against its major peers.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Brexit
& EURUSD: dollariin turvaan, vai dollarille turpaan? * Fedin kokouksen
pöytäkirja julkaistaan * USA:n palvelusektorin luottamus piristyi * Intian
keskuspankki leikkasi ohjauskorkoa