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EUROPE
Brexit FAQ – Nordea
We have prepared answers
to 11 questions we frequently get on Brexit. We continue to think that the UK
will remain in the EU. In our view, Brexit would mean a lasting drag on UK
economic growth in both the short and long term. We would expect increased
volatility but not a financial crisis. Brexit would be GBP-negative in the
short term, but we doubt that the effect will last longer than a week or so,
and in the longer run, the EUR might be the loser.
Brexit Eclipsing Fed-ECB Split as Top Risk for
Euro: Analysis – BB
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Europe's Banks Can't Do
Draghi's Bidding – View
/ BB
ECB Risks Trashing
Corporate Bond Liquidity – View
/ BB
UNITED STATES
Martin Enlund’s FX: KFC? – Nordea
The Fed decided to worry
about everything in March. Will the FX policy divergence theme remain alive
(but clearly less kicking) or will it be killed off as has been the case with
the GBP? We provide some thoughts in this FX nugget. KFC: Kould Fed (actually)
Cut?
Yellen Pivots Toward Saving Her Legacy – Tim
Duy
Rising risks to the outlook placed Yellen’s
legacy in danger. If the first rate hike wasn’t a mistake, certainly follow up
hikes would be.
Economic surprises drive the Fed's reaction function – BB
Solid jobs growth
continues and manufacturing cycle has turned – Danske
Bank
ISM Manufacturing index
increased to 51.8 in March – Bill
McBride
Consumer Sentiment in
U.S. Edges Down Amid Economic Concerns – BB
Manufacturing in U.S.
Expands for First Time in Seven Months – BB
MARCH
JOBS REPORT
3 Numbers: Another solid
US jobs report expected – TF
NFP Preview: More ammo
for FOMC hawks? – TF
US labour market preview
– ABN
AMRO
Solid employment growth
but not enough for the Fed – Nordea
Last Minute Payrolls
Preview – ZH
March Jobs Report – The
Numbers – WSJ
Payrolls +215K Beat
Expectations, Earnings & Unemployment Rise – ZH
215,000 Jobs, 5.0%
Unemployment Rate – Bill
McBride
The March Jobs Report in
14 Charts – WSJ
Economists React:
Jobless Rate ‘Increased For All The Right Reasons’ – WSJ
Jobs Report: Everything
You Need to Know – WSJ
US labour market no
longer tightening – ABN
AMRO
Strong U.S. jobs report
unlikely to sway cautious Fed – Reuters
Goldman After Jobs
Report Sees Three Rate Hikes In 2016 – ZH
Payrolls Increased
215,000 in March as Wages Picked Up – BB
OTHER
Helicopters are easy to fly – Simon
Wren-Lewis
MARCH MANUFACTURING
PMI
South Korea – Markit
China – Markit
Japan – Markit
Taiwan
– Markit
Indonesia
– Markit
Malaysia
– Markit
Russia
– Markit
Turkey
– Markit
Poland – Markit
Netherlands – Markit
Spain – Markit
Italy – Markit
France – Markit
Germany – Markit
Eurozone – Markit
Greece – Markit
United Kingdom – Markit
China: PMI upside
surprise not that surprising – Nordea
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
PMI, UR, NFP, ISM - today is all
about the abbreviations * Solid jobs report – but not enough for the Fed * Continued
negative Euro area inflation, ECB's new purchase rate * EUR/USD above 1.14
Morning Markets – TF
A horrible reading from the Tankan
Survey overnight sent the Nikkei into a calamitious plunge that casts serious
doubt on the Bank of Japan's negative-rates strategy and helped drag the rest
of Asia down despite a surprise boost in Chinese PMIs.
Daily Market Comment
– Macro
Man
With the Fed's mandate outsourced to
China, it's hard to care about payrolls
Daily Shot – TF
The European Central
Bank is challenged by disinflationary pressures with Spain Italy Germany and
the Eurozone as a whole in deflation.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View
/ BB
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
New TNS poll finds UK
split right down the middle on EU membership * Spain posts big miss on 2015
budget deficit targets and blames regional governments * Greece unable to meet
deadline to send back first migrants to Turkey * Greek bailout talks may yet
drag on and could be delayed by UK’s EU referendum * Italian Industry Minister
quits over conflict of interest allegations
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Juncker pokes Poland —
Germany on alert — May one force be with you
US Open – ZH
Japan Stocks Plunge; Europe, U.S.
Futures, Oil Lower Ahead Of Payrolls
Frontrunning – ZH
The Fed has established
a clearly dovish stance on the pace of future rate hikes. But the market has
taken this to an extreme as less than 1 rate hike is priced in for the next 12
months. This makes strong upside surprises in today’s key US data releases the
most interesting scenario to test the mettle of the USD bears.
Today marks the release
of the latest US nonfarm payrolls print but Saxo forex head John Hardy wonders
what the impact of even a very strong report will be given the Federal
Reserve's reluctance to further normalise policy.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Mannaa
taivaalta * Tänään katseet kohdistuvat USA:n työllisyysraporttiin * Euroalueen
inflaatio jäi negatiiviseksi * Kiinan teollisuuden ostopäällikköluvut
yllättivät positiivisesti
Matti Viren: Perustulo ei
ole järkevä hanke – US