Google Analytics

Thursday, March 2

1st Mar - Huge rally (hawkish Fed, Trump behaved)

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

EU Court Says It Can’t Rule Over EU-Turkey Migrant Deal – WSJ
Austria plans to stop giving food and shelter to rejected asylum seekers – Politico
Euro Rates Watch – Is Spain set to become semi-core? – ABN AMRO

Commission outlines 5 scenarios for future of EU in white paper –
Brexit’s shadow on white paper – Politico
What Juncker said, what he meant – Politico
France, Germany support Juncker’s white paper options – Politico
Leonid Bershidsky: Forcing the EU to Make the Biggest DecisionBB

Fillon Reveals Facing Criminal Charges, Stays In Presidential Race – ZH
Fillon, under formal investigation, says won’t quit – Politico
Therese Raphael: France's Election Is Giving the World Déjà vu BB

The globetrotter confined - the hardening of Geert Wilders –
Election preview, part 2 –
Election Update: Election manifestos and price tags – ABN AMRO
2017 general election – a complicated jigsaw – RBC

This Is Now the Third-Longest Economic Expansion in U.S. History – WSJ
Q1 GDP Estimates Tumble: GS, Atlanta Fed 1.8%, JPM 1.5%, BoA 1.3% - ZH

Fed Watch – Next Fed rate hike now seen in March – ABN AMRO
Tim Duy: Timing of the Next Fed Rate Hike Is Now a Balancing Act – BB
Fed’s Brainard: "Rate Hike Likely Appropriate Soon", USDJPY surges – ZH

Trump's Address To Congress: Key Highlights And Full Text – ZH
From Rebellion To Pouting Pelosi: "We Bleed The Same Blood" – ZH
Trump softens immigration stance, takes measured tone in speech – Reuters
Trump’s Softer Tone Masks Hard Road Ahead for Agenda in Congress – BB
Speech Revives Campaign Themes But Details Remain Scarce – BB
Factbox: Main themes of Trump's speech to Congress – Reuters

Trump Asks Congress to Unite Behind Health Care, Tax Overhauls – WSJ
Speech Leaves Executives Optimistic, Wanting More Details – WSJ
Wall Street Reacts: "Presidential, Low On Details" AddressZH
Editorial: Scapegoater in Chief BB
Mohamed El-Erian: Markets Need to Hear More Details From Trump – BB
Jonathan Bernstein: Trump Strikes a Better Tone. So What? – BB
Few details from Trump – Fed to hike already in March? – Nordea 
Trump’s fiscal stimulus package may well be delayed – Pictet

March Preview: Beware the IdesMarc Chandler

Morning Report APACTF
The US economy expanded by 1.6% for 2016 its worst performance since 2016 and the Dow snapped its record 12-day winning streak ahead of the president's address to Congress.

Trump softens tone, Uber chief caught on camera, and the 85-page nightmare

Trump Seeks Unity, Food Feels a Sterling Squeeze, Billion Dollar Bet on the Pound

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Hawkish Fed, conciliatory Trump, Chinese momentum * Plenty of manufacturing PMI data on the calendar * Fed March rate hike odds spike to around 80% * USD rallies on Fed repricing

Morning MarketsTF
In his first speech to Congress US president Donald Trump displayed a softer and more ¨'presidential' tone and thereby calmed some of his critics. But his address lacked details about his future tax policy.

From the FloorTF
Market expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next month have jumped to around two-thirds probability, and further hawkish noise overnight from New York Fed president William Dudley bolstered that view. US president Donald Trump's speech on Tuesday to a joint session of Congress set a less combative tone, which was met with relief in markets, though the address was still thin on details of the new administration's tax plans.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Greenback Bounces, More Fed than Trump

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

10 things you need to know before the opening bellBI

Global Stocks, US Futures Surge, Bonds Tumble On "Presidential" Trump Speech, Hawkish Fed Speakers


FX UpdateTF
The USD jumped higher as the New York Fed’s Dudley waxed hawkish on the need for hiking rates thus drastically raising March Fed rate hike odds. Trump’s speech was short on specifics but sounded supportive of some kind of border tax perhaps adding fuel to the USD rally.

Fedin korko-odotuksilla vain yksi suunta * Fed funds –futuurien indikoima maaliskuun koronnoston todennäköisyys pomppasi 80 prosenttiin * Ranskan helmikuun inflaatio alitti odotukset * USA:sta odotetaan vahvoja teollisuuden luottamuslukuja

Jan Hurri: Liittovaltio tai ero – tätä EU ei uskalla sinulta kysyäIS
Suomalaisten selkeä enemmistö kannattaa EU:n talous- ja rahaliittoa ja euroa, koska ei ehkä ymmärrä – eikä ainakaan kannata – seurauksia