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Friday, September 15

15th Sep - BoE's hawkish tilt and US data

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France and Germany call for right to suspend EU passport-free area – Open Europe
Nail euro zone problems first, fix institutions later, ministers say – Reuters

The Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme and TARGET balances – ECB
Scenarios for QExit – Pictet

Bank of England Can't Afford to Mix Messages Anymore – BB
BOE Hawks May Be Aiming For Reset, Not Lift Off – BB
Bank of England unlikely to raise rates only once: Vlieghe – Reuters
One-Time BOE Dove Sees Case for Imminent Rate Hike – BB
The Pound Surges to a Post-Brexit High – BB
Pound Soars, Gilts Sell Off as Bank of England Turns Increasingly Hawkish – WSJ

December Fed hike close to 50/50 as US inflation rises – TF
Tim Duy: Fed May Have Too Much Faith in Inflation Forecasts – BB
Fed to announce QT and still signal one more hike this year – Danske Bank

Retail Sales Tumble, Worst Since Jan 2016 As Online Sales Slump – ZH
Retail Sales decreased 0.2% in August – Bill McBride
U.S. retail sales post biggest drop in six months – Reuters
U.S. Retail Sales Fall After Weaker Results in Prior Months – BB
Industrial Production Crashes Most Since May 2009 - Harvey Scapegoated – ZH
Industrial Production Decreased 0.9% in August – Bill McBride
U.S. industrial output, sapped by Harvey, falls for first time since January – Reuters
U.S. Factory Output Declines as Harvey Hits Refining, Chemicals – BB
UMich Consumer Confidence Slides On Loss Of 'Hope' – ZH

Why I Love Writing About the Markets – Ben Carlson
Bank of Japan preview: On hold as political uncertainty increases – Danske Bank
Yield Outlook - Central banks gradually turning more hawkish – Danske Bank
FX Forecast Update: A tale of three central-bank camps – Danske Bank

Morning Report APACTF
There are signs this morning that the market is becoming a little more conditioned to the provocations of North Korea with the indices neither rising nor falling. However JPY was in the ascendant and South Korean stocks were hit

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
N Korea’s retaliation, closing in on cancer, Britain’s Irish question

North Korea Missile Tests Markets; Risks of Low Inflation

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Strong US CPI, new missile launch has limited impact on the markets * CBR to cut rates today * Sterling is off and away * North Korean spillover to rates seems limited

Morning MarketsTF
Asia-Pacific equity markets were largely unruffled on Friday by North Korea's second missile launch over Japan in less than three weeks. Meanwhile the British pound extended gains in year-high territory after the Bank of England sounded a hawkish note on Thursday. Higher-than-expected US CPI weighed on Wall Street stocks on Thursday.

From the FloorTF
The Bank of England's surprisingly hawkish signals on Thursday sent sterling higher. The rally was only aided by governor Mark Carney's comments that he is preparing for a rate hike, and Saxo bank head of FX strategy John J Hardy says that resistance at 1.35 looks soft.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Short Note Ahead of the Weekend

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Orbán’s migration victory — Catalonia tensions — Juncker meets YouTubers

US PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day BB

Markets Ignore North Korea Missile Launch; Send Pound Soaring, Yen Tumbles


FX UpdateTF
The market was caught the wrong way around on sterling when the Bank of England stepped up its rate hike credibility, and the sterling rally may have considerable room to run. Elsewhere, a reasonably strong US CPI failed to drive much USD strength – a warning for bulls.

Venäjän keskuspankki kokoustaa tänään | Pohjois-Korea teki ohjuskokeen, markkinareaktiot vaisut | USA:n inflaatioluvut olivat odotuksia vahvemmat

Orpon onnekas osaSakari Heikkinen