Google Analytics

Friday, September 15

15th Sep - BoE's hawkish tilt and US data




Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter


EUROPE
France and Germany call for right to suspend EU passport-free area – Open Europe
Nail euro zone problems first, fix institutions later, ministers say – Reuters

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
The Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme and TARGET balances – ECB
Scenarios for QExit – Pictet

  BANK OF ENGLAND
Bank of England Can't Afford to Mix Messages Anymore – BB
BOE Hawks May Be Aiming For Reset, Not Lift Off – BB
Bank of England unlikely to raise rates only once: Vlieghe – Reuters
One-Time BOE Dove Sees Case for Imminent Rate Hike – BB
The Pound Surges to a Post-Brexit High – BB
Pound Soars, Gilts Sell Off as Bank of England Turns Increasingly Hawkish – WSJ


UNITED STATES
  FEDERAL RESERVE
December Fed hike close to 50/50 as US inflation rises – TF
Tim Duy: Fed May Have Too Much Faith in Inflation Forecasts – BB
Fed to announce QT and still signal one more hike this year – Danske Bank

  MACRO DATA
Retail Sales Tumble, Worst Since Jan 2016 As Online Sales Slump – ZH
Retail Sales decreased 0.2% in August – Bill McBride
U.S. retail sales post biggest drop in six months – Reuters
U.S. Retail Sales Fall After Weaker Results in Prior Months – BB
Industrial Production Crashes Most Since May 2009 - Harvey Scapegoated – ZH
Industrial Production Decreased 0.9% in August – Bill McBride
U.S. industrial output, sapped by Harvey, falls for first time since January – Reuters
U.S. Factory Output Declines as Harvey Hits Refining, Chemicals – BB
UMich Consumer Confidence Slides On Loss Of 'Hope' – ZH


OTHER
Why I Love Writing About the Markets – Ben Carlson
Bank of Japan preview: On hold as political uncertainty increases – Danske Bank
Yield Outlook - Central banks gradually turning more hawkish – Danske Bank
FX Forecast Update: A tale of three central-bank camps – Danske Bank


REGULARS
Morning Report APAC – TF
There are signs this morning that the market is becoming a little more conditioned to the provocations of North Korea with the indices neither rising nor falling. However JPY was in the ascendant and South Korean stocks were hit

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT
N Korea’s retaliation, closing in on cancer, Britain’s Irish question

WSJ City – WSJ
North Korea Missile Tests Markets; Risks of Low Inflation

“Best of the web” daily charts – Lukas Daalder

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea
Strong US CPI, new missile launch has limited impact on the markets * CBR to cut rates today * Sterling is off and away * North Korean spillover to rates seems limited

Morning Markets – TF
Asia-Pacific equity markets were largely unruffled on Friday by North Korea's second missile launch over Japan in less than three weeks. Meanwhile the British pound extended gains in year-high territory after the Bank of England sounded a hawkish note on Thursday. Higher-than-expected US CPI weighed on Wall Street stocks on Thursday.

From the Floor – TF
The Bank of England's surprisingly hawkish signals on Thursday sent sterling higher. The rally was only aided by governor Mark Carney's comments that he is preparing for a rate hike, and Saxo bank head of FX strategy John J Hardy says that resistance at 1.35 looks soft.

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Short Note Ahead of the Weekend

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Orbán’s migration victory — Catalonia tensions — Juncker meets YouTubers

US Playbook – Politico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

US Open – ZH
Markets Ignore North Korea Missile Launch; Send Pound Soaring, Yen Tumbles

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF
The market was caught the wrong way around on sterling when the Bank of England stepped up its rate hike credibility, and the sterling rally may have considerable room to run. Elsewhere, a reasonably strong US CPI failed to drive much USD strength – a warning for bulls.


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Venäjän keskuspankki kokoustaa tänään | Pohjois-Korea teki ohjuskokeen, markkinareaktiot vaisut | USA:n inflaatioluvut olivat odotuksia vahvemmat

Orpon onnekas osa – Sakari Heikkinen