Google Analytics

Wednesday, March 21

21st Mar - Fed hikes, FB and stress

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

The euro area’s deepening political dividevoxeu
Two European elections – in Germany on 24 September 2017 and Italy on 4 March 2018 – warn that the peoples of Europe are drifting apart. Much of the recent deepening of these divisions can be traced to Europe’s single currency, the euro. This column argues that the political divide in Europe may now be hard to roll back absent a shift in focus to national priorities that pay urgent attention to the needs of those being left behind.

The structural decline in the Eurozone’s growth potentialING
The euro crisis had a negative effect in some member states that lasts to this day, with potential economic output in a structural decline

What Does Europe Care About? Watch Where It Spends
The European Union says it wants to focus on new priorities. First it will have to cut spending in sectors that have long enjoyed support.

Germany Rules Out Economic Shift Amid Pressure From Trump
In an interview, Germany’s new finance minister says the government won’t consider large income and corporate tax cuts

Weidmann sceptical of stability mechanism reform proposalsBundesbank

Leonid Bershidsky: Trump's Tariff Is a Gift to Swing StatesBB
It's not just the current president. A new study shows how his predecessors turned protectionism into political profit.

US Chart of the week – Statistical issues
Weak US Q1 GDP growth revives debate about seasonality issues, as solid macroeconomic signals suggest that growth will rebound sharply.

As shutdown looms, Congress crafts massive funding bill
Congressional leaders laboring to complete the bill face a midnight Friday deadline to avoid a government shutdown.

Steven Englander: The Right Questions to Ask at Fed Press Conferences
The best queries are framed in terms of how monetary policy will respond to different shocks.

Fed preview: First of four
Jay Powell's first FOMC meeting as chairman will end with a rate hike, but the accompanying statement's tone and forecast update will be key for markets

Economic Projections

Fed Raises Rates, Steepens Path of Hikes as Outlook StrengthensBB
Split FOMC continues to see three rate increases in 2018 * Policy makers boost economic growth forecasts for 2018, 2019

Raises By 25bps, Signals 2 More Hikes In 2018 But Raises Rate Trajectory For 2019 - ZH

Well that’s one reason to buy yen… - FT

Timing the consensus fade
Kevin Muir
Indexing consensus trades and measuring realized volatility. As volatility increases, so does the probability of liquidations?

Deutsche Bank Plunges To 16-Month Lows, Bank Credit Risk SpikesZH

Bank Credit Risk Flashes Red As Libor-OIS Spike Spooks Global Funding MarketsZH

Morgan Stanley: "Soaring Libor Is The Story Of The Year, Not The Fed"ZH

Tyler Cowen: We Fear What We Can't Control About Uber and FacebookBB
That response to technology can lead to overreaction and bad regulation.

“Signs of systemic mismanagement” at FacebookFT

Will #deletefacebook become a thing?Joshua Brown

Under Fire and Losing Trust, Facebook Plays the VictimBusinessweek
All privacy problems are product problems, and the company has a ton of those.

Tech's Footprint May Be Stomping Over the MarketBusinessweek
The sector plays a bigger role in the economy than it did in the dot-com days, but now the crowded trade has to make room for politics.

It's Not Just Facebook. The Big Tech Revolt Has Begun, Says NomuraBB
Factors from populism to regulation converge in backlash * Fallout could sweep beyond confines of equity markets

Zuckerberg Issues Statement: "We Made Mistakes"ZH

Leonid Bershidsky: Mark Zuckerberg Has No Way Out of Facebook's QuagmireBB
There's simply no way to fix the fake news and data abuse problems without destroying the social network's business model.

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Facebook faces probe, Kalanick’s new job, economics fail

Facebook’s Lax Data Policies, U.S. to Ramp Up Curbs on China, Sentiment Still Dim on Brexit

WSJ EconomicsWSJ
Trump Targets China | Fed Likely to Raise Rates | G-20 Splits on Trade

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Bullmann victorious — Digital tax day — Pushy Germans

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

Global Markets On Edge, Dollar Slides Ahead Of FOMC Amid Ongoing Facebook Rout
Aamukatsaus Nordea
Fed kokoustaa ja nostaa korkoa tänään | Suomen työmarkkinaluvut olivat vahvoja | Ison-Britannian inflaatio oli hieman odotuksia heikompaa

Aamukatsaus Danske Bank