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Monday, March 26

26th Mar - Dip and Reverse




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EUROPE
A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area – IMF
A macroeconomic stabilization fund financed by annual contributions from countries used to build up assets in good times and make transfers to countries in bad times, as well as a borrowing capacity in case large or persistent shocks exhaust the fund’s assets.

A Compass to Prosperity: The Next Steps of Euro Area Economic Integration – IMF

Inside the Secret Plot to Reverse Brexit – BB
For the first time, a group of rebels is going public with its plan to derail Britain’s decision to leave the EU.

Germany wants to make Trump a trade offer he can’t refuse – Handelsblatt
Germany's new economics minister wants to offer concessions to Washington by cutting European car-import tariffs. But the rest of the EU isn’t so sure about the deal.

How far from EU admission standards are western Balkan states? – FT
Region is poorer than bloc’s members but there is time to make up some of the GDP per capita gap


UNITED STATES
U.S. Recession May Come Just in Time for Trump’s Re-Election Bid – BB
2020 is an economic ‘inflection point,’ Zandi of Moody’s says * Fading fiscal stimulus, rising interest rates seen as risks

Trump Tightens Screws on Putin But Says He Wants to Get Along – BB
President likely to expel Russian diplomats on Monday * Move would align Trump with European allies critical of Putin


MARKETS / OTHER

  MARKET TODAY:
Dow Soars 500 Points, Erases Friday's Drop – ZH
Dow Jumps Most In 30 Months, Dollar Dives, Cryptos Crash As Bonds Barely Budge – ZH

  STRATEGY:
JPMorgan: "We See Risk Of Institutional Capitulation"
– ZH

Morgan Stanley: "We Can Already See The Writing On The Wall"
– ZH

Deutsche: "We Are Entering An Environment Where Everything Wants To Sell Off"
– ZH

This Is What It Sounds Like...When the Regime Dies – Macro Man

This Cycle Will End – The Simple Math Of Forward Returns – Lance Roberts

Aaron Brown: Stocks Will Need More Than GDP Growth to Prosper – BB
Equities have become disconnected from fundamentals.

Higher volatility does not have to equal lower stocks – Kevin Muir

  FACEBOOK
Facebook Plunges After FTC Probe, German Sanctions Headlines – ZH
Facebook Hits 8-Month Lows, Ignores Market Rebound – ZH

  OTHER
BlackRock bets on algorithms to beat the fund managers – FT
Larry Fink’s firm hopes to build a ‘quant’ powerhouse through its active equities arm

Matthew Levine: Hardworking Hedge Funds Might Have the Upper Hand –
BB
Funds that accessed Edgar filings performed better than ones that didn't, but the data isn't so clear-cut.

FT Collections: Rethinking macroeconomics – FT

Kim Jong Un Is Making a Surprise China Visit, Sources Say – BB
First trip outside isolated state since taking power in 2011 * Mysterious move comes weeks after Trump agreed to meet Kim

  TRADE WAR
Trump Wanted a Trade War. Here's What One Looks Like – BB

Training not tariffs: How to protect US free trade victims – ING
Instead of unleashing a trade war against China and criticising European trade policies, US workers would be better off if Trump adopted European-style labour policies

China Signals It Could Ease Treasury Purchases to Counter Trump – BB
Nation “looking at all options,” ambassador to U.S. says * Beijing had been considering scaling back Treasury holdings

China to Intervene in Stocks After Tariffs Trigger Rout – BB

China: losing patience on US trade protectionism – ING
China has sent a strong message by announcing its own tariffs following the latest US$60bn tariff plan from Washington. What are the implications?


Trump Veers Into Uncharted Trade Territory as China Waits –
BB
Investors await details of China tariffs and levies on steel * Analyst sees a ‘huge amount of uncertainty’ over next steps

Fears of Trade Wars and Other Wars – Ray Dalio

China steps up effort to avert US trade war –
FT
U.S., China Quietly Seek Trade Solutions After Days of Loud Threats –
WSJ
US, China Said To Near Deal To Avert "Tit-For-Tat" Trade War – ZH
Mnuchin ‘Hopeful’ Truce Can Be Reached With China on Trade – BB
China urges WTO members: put U.S. tariff 'beast back in the cage' – Reuters
U.S. seeks China trade moves on autos, financials, chips: source – Reuters
China's premier pledges market opening in bid to avert U.S. trade war – Reuters


REGULARS
FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT
Stormy 60 Minutes, Uber quits SE Asia, orange snow

WSJ City – WSJ
U.S. and China Quietly Seek Trade Solutions, Can Markets Handle a Trio of Negative Forces?

WSJ Economics – WSJ
China Tariffs | Korea Trade Pact | New York Fed Prez | Health Insurance Subsidies

“Best of the web” daily charts – Lukas Daalder

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Equity Meltdown Aborted, Dollar Eases

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Commission’s take out the trash day — UK’s plan for Irish border — Trump’s Stormy Sunday

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

US Open – ZH
S&P Futures Soar, Global Stocks Rebound As Trade War "Perfect Storm" Fears Fade


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Tiistaina saadaan luottamuslukuja Ruotsista ja Suomesta | Torstaina vuorossa ovat Saksan ja USA:n inflaatioluvut | Maanantai on datarintamalla hiljainen päivä

Aamukatsaus – Danske Bank