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Monday, March 5

5th Mar - Germany gets a government, Italy voted

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Europe’s Center Holds, but Just BarelyWSJ
Italian parliamentary vote, German coalition deal reflect populists' advances, wider dissatisfaction with establishment

Faced with U.S. tax cuts, France, Germany hasten harmonization: Merkel

Germany, France to start work on new EU projects, says MacronPolitico
French president calls on Germany to ‘bring the European project forward’ once new grand coalition is in place.

Eurozone: Hitting top speedING
We remain comfortable with our Eurozone GDP growth forecast of 2.4% this year but the pace of growth will slow a bit in the second half while political uncertainty will force the ECB to tread carefully

Euro-Area Economy Looked a Little Less Buoyant in FebruaryBB
PMI falls, Trump’s tariffs knock investor confidence lower * ECB Governing Council holds policy meeting this week

EU Plans to Tax 2%-6% of Tech Giants' Sales, Le Maire Tells JDDBB

ECB preview: Angry birdsING
The tension between a small but vocal minority of hawks and the still large majority of doves seems to be increasing. Next week’s ECB meeting will offer some new insights on who is currently on top in this bird fight

Merkel Wins Fourth Term as Germany’s SPD Backs Coalition – BB
German Social Democrats back new Merkel-led coalition – Reuters
Finally a government after SPD clears the way for Merkel’s fourth term – WaPo

Angela Merkel’s Real Work Is Starting Now in Her Fourth TermBB
Trump tariffs, China, Macron demand German leader’s attention * Unresolved party reforms could mean bumpy ride

Leonid Bershidsky: Merkel's Legacy Isn't Flashy, But It's LastingBB
She'll leave a more open, happier country to her successor -- likely one of her choosing.

Italians Head to Polls as Populists Challenge Mainstream PartiesBB
Berluconi’s bloc seen as only force with chance of majority * Di Maio’s Five Star could become top populist party in Europe

Italy Populists Break Establishment Grip In Quest for Power – BB
Country faces stalemate as no clear winning party or alliance * Five Star, League surge as Berlusconi, Democratic Party falter

Italy faces political gridlock as 5-Star surges in electionReuters

Italy: Populism strikes backNordea
Populist parties performed strongly in Italian elections, while no single coalition seems able to reach a majority. Government formation will be difficult and new elections cannot be excluded. Financial markets should exhibit some worries.

Italian Election Monitor: Eurosceptic shiftDanske Bank
Election result appears to be a hung parliament, as earlier polls pointed to already. Anti-establishment parties such as the Five Star Movement and Northern League nevertheless registered strong gains, but none of the three major political blocs seem to be able to secure an outright majority

Italy Populists Break Establishment Grip, Quest for Power Opens BB
Country faces stalemate as no clear winning party or alliance * Five Star, League surge as Berlusconi, Democratic Party falter

Wall Street Responds: "Anti-Establishment Forces Are On Fire"ZH

Ferdinando Giugliano: Italy Takes a Step Back From EuropeBB
The winners in the country's election have promised policies that put them on a collision course with Italy's EU partners.

Italy Populists Break Establishment Grip, Quest for Power OpensBB
Country faces stalemate as no clear winning party or alliance * Five Star, League surge as Berlusconi, Democratic Party falter

Waiting for MattarellaMarc to Market
There will be a great deal of posturing and declarations, but the following yesterday's election, the next step is in President Mattarella's hands.

Italy: what’s next and Goldman just soured on "European and market stability"ZH

Italy: Hung parliament, left without obvious short-run solution to gridlockING
Without an outright winner but with a populist twist in parliament, forming a new government will be complicated. Expect tactical positioning by party leaders and clarity about the presidents of the two Houses, before an attempt at a coalition is made

Leonid Bershidsky: Italy's Election Was Quite Traditional, ActuallyBB
The nation's voters favor weak central governments for a reason.

EUR: Looking through Italian politicsING
The outcome of the Italian elections doesn't alter our bullish EUR/USD view. The hung parliament is not enough to offset the positive Eurozone economy cyclical story and the ECB's steps towards policy normalization

In 2002, President Bush Imposed 30% Steel Tariffs; This Is What Happened Next ZH

The Good Donald, the Bad Donald and the Ugly MarketBB
Stock investors' reaction to the president's plan creates an internal conflict.

Making US Steel Great AgainING
US hot-rolled coil prices have been trading $100/mt above Europe in anticipation of trade duties. President Trump's announced 25% tariff will affect 30% of US demand, a considerably lower portion than the tariff impact in aluminium. The impact on costs for the consumer will vary by product

Trump's Steel Tariff Shakes Global Trade Order, EU Group WarnsBB

Trump Trade Crackdown Shows ‘America First’ Happening at Last BB
Goldman says steel tariffs could signal trouble for Nafta *U.S. also working on investigation of China’s IP practices

BOJ's Kuroda Joins Queue of Central Banks Looking Toward ExitBB
Kuroda says logical to think ahead if inflation hits target * Clearest signal yet from Kuroda on thoughts of exit strategy

BNP Paribas: The Trade War PlaybookZH

Key Points From China Government Work Report for 2018BB

Monthly economic update: Still pumpingING
Global economic growth is going from strength to strength and price pressures are building. Yet central banks in aggregate are still ‘printing money’ and fiscal policy is increasingly stimulative. This suggests global activity is subject to upside risk and the potential for an old style ‘boom-bust’ cycle may be rising. Central banks will need to tread carefully and markets should prepare for potentially unexpectedly sharp changes in monetary policy.

An abridged, illustrated history of volatilityFT

Part 1: Global InflationDanske Bank
US stimulus and closing output gaps pose upside risk

Part 2: Eurozone InflationDanske Bank
- Upside risks from oil prices and rising wage pressures

Part 3: Scandi InflationDanske Bank
The diverging Phillips curves in Norway and Sweden

Part 4: EUR Fixed IncomeDanske Bank
6 Misaligned rates and inflation markets

Part 5: FX and inflationDanske Bank
US inflation outperformance + comfy Fed = weaker USD

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Steeling for trade wars, Oscars turn 90, billionaire bolt-holes

Populist Surge Leaves Italy’s Immediate Future Uncertain, White House Bats Away Tariff Warnings

WSJ EconomicsWSJ
Tariffs and Trade Wars | U.S. Emerging as World’s Top Oil Producer | Italy’s Election Leads to Uncertainty

“Best of the web” daily chartsLukas Daalder

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Italian Election Weighs on Italian Assets, but Little Systemic Risk Seen

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Italy swings right — New front in Selmayrgate — Robot cartels

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day BB

Jittery Markets Rebound From Sharp Losses, Italy Slumps On Anti-Establishment Surge


Aamukatsaus Nordea
Mitä tekee Trump - Tuontitullit keskiössä | Italian vaalit ennakoivat vaikeita hallitusneuvotteluita tai jopa uusia vaaleja | EKP kokoustaa torstaina

Aamukatsaus Danske Bank