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Wednesday, May 30

30th May - Modest calm in Italy




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EUROPE
Parallel Currency - Revisiting Justified? – Klaus Kastner
Before the introduction of the Euro, every country had a parallel currency. It was called 'local currency'.

Spain snap elections in sight – Pictet
Political instability in Spain has added to turmoil in peripheral euro area countries.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB's Whatever-It-Takes Toolbox Means Italy Has to Blink First – BB
The ECB of 2018 is far more powerful than in the 2012 crisis * Central bank’s biggest backstop tool comes with conditions

European Lenders Brace for Change at the ECB – BB
SSM chair and vice chair are among departures at start of 2019 * Shakeup comes just as supervisors have to deal with Brexit

  ITALY
Editorial: What Europe Should Do About Italy – BB
The EU needs to show flexibility and restraint.

Italy's Establishment Faces Populist Push With No Champion – BB
League, Five Star are polling close to combined 60 percent * Pro-European parties are in retreat since March’s election

Commentary: The EU’s Italian nightmare – Reuters

Politicians push for July election as Italy seeks exit from crisis – Reuters

The Italian market panic - drivers and near-term outlook – Danske Bank
The Italian bond sell-off reached unprecedented levels yesterday and is starting to have significant global ramifications as we saw during the euro debt crisis in 2012. 

Jan von Gerich: Loss of market access would have dire consequences – Nordea
A loss of market access would force Italy to ask for outside help or start printing its own currency. Both would be very problematic scenarios. In any case, Euro-area break-up fears would balloon and markets would go into a crisis mode.

Italy Bonds Pass Auction Test in a Sign of Easing Market Jitters – BB
Both five- and 10-year sales oversubscribed, but pricing mixed * Political risk is still a ‘thick fog:’ ADM Investor Services

Italy Needed a Bond Victory. It Got a Whimper – BB
Wednesday’s auction was at best a mixed bag.

FAQ:  What Happened to Rome? – Marc Chandler

Lucrezia Reichlin: What Italy’s Crisis Means for Europe – Project Syndicate
Though Euroskeptics have failed to form a new Italian government, both Italy and the European Union are entering a new phase of deep uncertainty. In the absence of a robust growth agenda that addresses Italy's structural economic weaknesses, another euro crisis could be in the offing – and this one would be far worse than the last.

Italy Heads for Confrontation with Itself, Financial Markets, and Europe – PIIE
President Sergio Mattarella has put Italy on a path of political confrontation domestically and most likely with financial markets and the rest of Europe.

Italian debt under fire – Pictet
Risk of contagion from the volatile Italian bond market leading us to become bearish on euro peripheral debt.

PIMCO:  Short Italian Bonds, ECB Sees "No Need" To Intervene In Italy – ZH

Euro Spikes, Italian Yields Slide After 5-Star Calls On Savona To Withdraw Candidacy – ZH

For Italian Bonds, These Are The 12 Charts That Matter The Most – ZH

Goldman Admits It Has No Idea What Happens Next In Italy – ZH


OTHER
The Euro: Only as strong as its weakest link – ING
The Italian political crisis has heaped more pressure on EUR/USD and has re-introduced the topic of a Eurozone crisis onto the FX risk map. While we cannot now rule out EUR/USD falling to the 1.10/12 area this summer, we would say that current EUR pricing already includes a substantial 4% political risk premium


REGULARS
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk

Market Briefing: Daily Markets Overview – Yardeni Research

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT
Italy crisis, trade war rebooted, Sorrell’s return

WSJ City – WSJ
The Early Winner from Italy’s Political Chaos, U.S. Jeopardizes Trade Talks with China

WSJ Economics – WSJ
U.S. Threatens Tariffs, Italy Rattles Markets

“Best of the web” daily charts – Lukas Daalder

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Italian Reprieve, Euro Bounces, Trade Tensions Rise

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Budget scoop — Oettinger unleashed — Parliament’s (rap) battle

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

US Open – ZH
Global Stocks, US Futures Rebound As Italian Bond Panic Eases; Euro Jumps


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Italian korot rajussa nousussa, Saksan korot laskivat, pörssit punaisella | Espanjan ja Saksan inflaatioluvut luovat tunnelmia euroalueen inflaatiolle | Euro heikentyi dollaria vastaan