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Monday, March 18

18th Mar - Nato quarrel, European banks #4048


EUROPE
  NATO
Germany Won’t Raise Military Spending, Defying Trump WSJ
The German government is poised to renege on its pledge to raise military spending, the latest gesture of defiance by Chancellor Angela Merkel toward President Trump.

Germany on course to miss defence spending targetFT
Stage set for fresh US spat as finance minister rebuffs plans for big increase

US warned over retreating from European security role FT
French minister says pullback by Washington could come back to haunt it

  BANKS
ECB Watch: Could tiering save bank profitability?
Nordea
As negative rates will continue for longer, focus on the harmful side effects has increased. A tiered reserve system could be an option, but we remain unconvinced the ECB would go for such a system, at least unless the outlook deteriorates further.

After Danske, Next Dirty Money Route Gets Scrutinized in Denmark BB
Nordea highlights suspicious payments from Russia to Caribbean * Nordic banks are under pressure to improve compliance setups

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank Poised to Announce Merger TalksBB
German lenders could announce exploratory talks on Sunday * Government is said to signal it’ll accept job and cost cuts

Germany’s Big Banking Merger Smacks of Despair BB
It just highlights how ill Europe's banking system is. It’s unclear how the deal will fix either firm's weaknesses.

Germany’s Big Banking Merger, in Charts BB
What would a combination of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank look like?

Big German Banks, Stumbling, Decide to Get Bigger BB
It smacks of desperation. And it probably won’t work.


OTHER
Gary Shilling: A Recession Is Coming, And Maybe a Bear Market, TooBB
History shows that equities normally drop about 21 percent when the economy contracts.


REGULARS
Five Things to Start Your Day AsiaBB

Eco Day Asia BB
One Fed Hike, Capitalism: Adapt or Die, China's Funding * Southeast Asia’s low inflation puts analysts on rate-cut watch * Australia to roar back to black, but election spending is risk

Five Things to Start Your Day Europe BB

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels BriefingFT
Caputova’s lesson: Her win might set a template for like-minded politicians in the EU’s east — and beyond

Brussels EditionBB

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Spending money — Will they ever Brexit? — Law and disorder

Danske DailyDanske Bank
Markets waiting for the Fed to adjust their policy expectations downwards

Eco Day EuropeBB
ECB’s Key Tool, One Fed Hike, Japan’s Falling Exports * Economists still foresee one more Fed rate increase in 2019 * Southeast Asia’s low inflation puts analysts on rate-cut watch

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Equities Advance, Dollar Slips, Key Events Awaited

Five Things to Start Your Day US BB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

US OpenZH
Global Stocks Hit 5 Month High, Ignore Reports Of Trump-Xi Meeting Delay, 737 MAX Subpoena

Eco Day USBB
One Fed Hike, Canadian Budget, One-Handed Economists * Key ECB stimulus tool is put on trial for creating problems * Southeast Asia’s low inflation puts analysts on rate-cut watch


FINNISH
AamukatsausNordea
Brexitin lisäksi tulevalla viikolla huomio kiinnittyy Fedin kokoukseen ja euroalueen ostopäällikköindekseihin | Myös Englannin, Norjan ja Venäjän keskuspankit ovat kokousvuorossa | USA:n teollisuussektorilta saatiin odotuksia heikompia tilastoja