25th Mar - Quiet #4052

EUROPE

Jan von Gerich: Manufacturing recession deepens – Nordea

The Euro-area industry has been pushed into a real bad place, while the broader economy appears to be resisting the downward pressure better. These data add to downside risks for the Euro-area economy and increase headache for the central bank.

Jan von Gerich: Germany: Hope – Nordea

The Ifo index rebounded, questioning the very negative message given by the PMIs last week. Ifo suggests that after a substantial fall, confidence could be stabilizing. Manufacturing confidence continued to fall, keeping risks firmly to the downside.

Germany: Some balm for the soul – ING

Finally, after six consecutive drops, the Ifo index just sent a tentative signal of relief for the German economy

Weidmann Hits French Roadblock on Path to Replace Draghi at ECB – BB

Lunch with the FT, Wolfgang Schäuble: ‘I’m pretty stubborn’ – FT

The German politician on fighting for ‘Grexit’, clashing with Merkel — and what he thinks about austerity now

Europe and China – Marc Chandler

UNITED STATES

Fed’s New Abnormal Marks a Watershed Moment in a Low-Rate World – BB

U.S. central bank no longer expects to tighten beyond neutral * Low inflation continues to challenge old theories of economy

The yield curve inverted – Scott Sumner

Treasuries Buying Wave Triggers First Curve Inversion Since 2007 – BB

Gap between 3-month and 10-year U.S. yields vanishes Friday * Move follows Fed policy shift, gloomier economic signs

El-Erian: There’s Danger in Misreading the Inverted Yield Curve – BB

It doesn’t necessarily signal that a recession is on the way.

OTHER

China’s Xi Recruits Italy’s Populists for Global Spending Spree – BB

Accord is signed in Rome for Italian role in Belt and Road * U.S., European allies have cautioned on China’s reach

Italy signs deals worth 2.5 billion euros with China – Reuters

Big Tech competes to be the Netflix of gaming – FT

Google, Apple and Microsoft want to use the cloud to let people play any game at any time on any device

A Beginner's Guide to Modern Monetary Theory – BB

An overview of a once-fringe school of economic thought that’s suddenly of the moment.

REGULARS

Five Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB

Eco Day Asia – BB

Populists Run 68% of GDP, China Stimulus, Trade Jaw-Jaw * Property boom could be reason employees are distracted at work * Australian 10-year bond yield drops to a new record low

Five Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB

EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

Brussels Briefing – FT

Brussels Edition – BB

Brussels Playbook – Politico

No collusion! — May on the wane — Macron’s friends and foes

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Recession fears make a comeback

Eco Day Europe – BB

Euro-Area Stimulus, Turkey Probes Banks, Yuan Talk * China is promising to lower tariffs ahead of trade talks * Australian 10-year bond yield drops to a new record low

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Monday Blues: Equities Pare Quarterly Gains

Five Things to Start Your Day US – BB

US Open Rundown – RANsquawk

US Open – ZH

Asia Crumbles, Futures Hug 2,800 As Traders Await New Recession Signals

Eco Day US – BB

Fed ‘About Right’, Moore Criticism, Trade Talks Return * Economists agree with U.S. central bank’s policy pivot * Trump’s latest Fed governor pick draws swift pushback

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Tänään julkaisuvuorossa ovat Saksan talouselämän luottamusluvut | Euroalueen ja etenkin Saksan teollisuuden näkymät painuivat entistä synkemmiksi | Huolet maailmantalouden hiipumisesta painoivat markkinoita

Moderni rahateoria (MMT) -reunamerkintöjä – Jussi Lindgren

Politiikasta tulikin viihdettä? – Peter Nyberg