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Wednesday, April 17

17th Apr - Still bullish #4071


EUROPE
German Economy Heads for Worst Growth in Six YearsBB
Government’s new 2019 forecast compares with 2.1% a year ago * Slowdown is prompting calls for Germany to increase spending


UNITED STATES
US politics watch: Four scenarios for 2020ING
With the US Presidential election now just 18 months away and new candidates officially joining the race to unseat President Trump, we look at four different paths to the White House- and their implications for the economy and financial markets


OTHER
Skip the Party for China’s Economy BB
Relatively healthy growth belies the country’s systemic problems.

Getting Exchange Rates RightProject Syndicate
Standard calculations of a country’s real effective exchange rate (REER) ignore global value chains that spread production processes across countries. Taking this factor into account leads to more accurate REER calculations, which can have profound policy implications.

Dynamic fiscal limits and monetary-fiscal policy interactions ECB
In normal times, large public spending shocks may engender perverse debt dynamics and cause economic contractions.  At the ZLB, a muted trade-off between stabilization and sustainability instead expands the fiscal margin, especially if coupled with a commitment to a more active monetary policy during normal times.

Monetary policy spillovers, capital controls and exchange rate flexibility, and the financial channel of exchange ratesECB
The  financial channel of exchange rates highlighted in recent work reduces the extent to which local policymakers decide to exploit the monetary autonomy in principle granted by flexible exchange rates in specific circumstances.


REGULARS
Five Things to Start Your Day AsiaBB

Five Things to Start Your Day EuropeBB

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels EditionBB

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
MEPs say goodbye — UK says not yet — Continent of swingers

Danske DailyDanske Bank
Chinese economy surprises

Eco Day EuropeBB
China's Economy Holds Up, Italy Populism, Japan Exports * Trump stirs alarm that he’s handing China a new trade weapon * U.S., Japan begin talks on goods including agriculture, autos

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

Five Things to Start Your Day USBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

US OpenZH
Global Stocks Rise Following Blowout Chinese Data

Eco Day USBB
Fed’s Policy Stance, Trump Trade Alarm, EU Tariffs List * Powell adopts whites-of-the-eyes stance shunned by Yellen * Trump stirs alarm he may be giving China a new trade weapon
 

FINNISH
AamukatsausNordea
Kiinan BKT odotuksia vahvempi, liian aikaista ennakoida käännettä parempaan | Saksan ZEW-indeksi palasi nollan yläpuolelle | Tänään saadaan euroalueen lopullinen inflaatiojulkaisu maaliskuulta ja Britannian inflaatioluvut maaliskuulta