EUROPE
A
positive headline number, further weakening manufacturing data. What to make of
this morning's German industrial data?
What’s up with
Germany?
– ABN
AMRO
The
German economy has slowed sharply and looks to be in recession. The underperformance of the German economy
reflects its heavy reliance on exports, particularly capital goods. Meanwhile,
households have stepped up savings, leading to a slowdown in consumer spending.
A much-needed transition towards domestic demand is badly needed for Germany
and the eurozone. The large current account surplus is the flip side of a
domestic savings glut. Germany has room to increase government spending, cut
taxes and raise wages
Eurozone:
Tentative green shoots – ING
First-quarter
Eurozone growth was weak, but March data seems to suggest a rebound is in the
offing. With improving consumer sentiment and international trade off lows, the
second quarter could come a bit stronger, provided that a ‘hard Brexit’ is
avoided
ECB Watch: Easing
discussion
– Nordea
The
ECB April meeting will continue to analyse the future economic outlook and what
that implies for the details of future policy actions. While no concrete
decisions will be announced, the discussion is expected to be active.
Prospect
of a hawkish central bank leader coincides with an economic slowdown in Europe,
potentially spooking markets
The ECB Proves
Central Bankers Are Bad Capitalists – BB
The
Corporate Securities Purchase Program has distorted the cost of money, allowing
companies to make questionable decisions.
UNITED STATES
PAYROLLS
The
US labour market chugs along – Pictet
US
jobs report provides more cheer – ING
Jobs
Rebound Reassures on Growth But Comes With Caveats – BB
Labour
market back to normal – Nordea
Payrolls
Top Estimates With 196,000 Rise as Wages Cool – BB
OTHER
US
and Europe queue for a rollercoaster ride as lessons of the past are forgotten
All Brakes and No
Engine, Central Banks Seek New Inflation Ideas – BB
Prices
keep falling short, spurring rethink at Fed and beyond * Debate ranges from
target tweak to ‘rip it up and start again’
China Monthly:
Another soft landing
– Nordea
A
number of disappointing data at the beginning of the year has fueled concerns
about a sharp slowdown in China. We think the government's increased efforts to
stimulate the economy from all fronts will manage another soft landing this
year.
REGULARS
Five Things to
Start Your Day Europe – BB
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk
FirstFT Daily
Briefing
– FT
Brussels Briefing – FT
Brussels Edition – BB
Who
Controls the Pot of Money?
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Westminster
echo chamber — How to call Europe — Fight night in France
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Brexit,
NFP and white paper in Norway
Eco Day Europe – BB
ECB's
Economic Boost, Russian Inflation, British Taxes * China and the U.S. claim
progress has been made in trade talks * Investors await for signs of
overheating in U.S. jobs market
Daily Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Trade
Talk and German Industrial Output Lift Sentiment
Five Things to
Start Your Day US
– BB
US Open Rundown – RANsquawk
US Open – ZH
Global
Stocks Rise On, What Else, "Trade Talk Optimism"
Eco Day US – BB
U.S.
Jobs Day, Trade-Talk Progress, New Inflation Ideas * Economists are looking for
a stabilization in U.S. payrolls * China hails progress on trade, though deal
not ready yet
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
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