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Monday, April 29

29th Apr - Higher, but slower #4077

2019 EU Parliament electionsDanske Bank
We think the EU elections will be less of a shock event than many fear. Polls point to some erosion of the political centre, with Social Democrats and Conservatives losing their absolute majority for the first time since 1979. But this should easily be offset by gains for the Liberals and Greens, paving the way for broader alliances and more diverse debates in the parliament. Although the political centre could be more fragmented after the 2019 elections, the overall sentiment in the European Parliament should remain pro-EU.

More FDR for GermanyING
Even hawkish German economists are finally discussing changes to the debt brake but, unfortunately, a lot more needs to happen before this discussion enters the political arena. Perhaps Germany needs a lesson from Franklin D Roosevelt...

Danske Bank scandal buried in EuropeCityUnslicker
The board members of the EBA are other National Bank regulators and they have concluded that their own banks may well be doing this, so it is best to make sure there is no punishment for this, as they and their own countries will be next.

Spain's Election Is a Radical OpportunityBB
A coalition between the Socialists and the centrists looks a long shot, but the benefits for the country’s economy would be considerable.

The Spanish Election Is a Triumph of LogicBB
In a fragmented political environment, the old left-right divisions still matter.

What Macron Is Doing RightBB
He’s listening to the people, and so far insisting on economic reform.

Wolfgang Münchau: The unbreakable, unsustainable eurozoneFT
Without an ECB to do the heavy lifting in the next crisis, real reform will be needed

Polar powers: Russia’s bid for supremacy in the Arctic OceanFT
As climate change opens northern shipping lanes, Moscow is spending billions to dominate the region

US Politics: Four scenarios for 2020 and beyondING
1) President Trump is re-elected. He retrenches his views on international trade and multilateral institutions. 2) A non-Trump Republican wins, likely leading to another round of tax legislation, along with establishing protections for privacy 3) A centrist Democrat wins. Increased federal spending on both infrastructure and healthcare, as well as increased efforts to establish a national single payer service. 4) A populist Democrat is elected. Significant fiscal expansion fuelled by increased corporate tax rates, which includes both support for environmental projects (funding a ‘Green New Deal’) as well as redistributive spending.

Japan's Mega ‘Golden Week’ to Cloud View of Sputtering EconomyBB

Key Events This Extremely Busy WeekZH
Even Volatility May Rise From The Dead

Five Things to Start Your Day AsiaBB

Eco Day AsiaBB
Global Economy's Test, 1995 on Fed's Mind, Taiwan Cash * Spain economy likely to be boosted by socialist Sanchez’s win * India slips further behind China over first five years of Modi

Five Things to Start Your Day EuropeBB

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels BriefingFT
Spain’s shattered right hands Sánchez victory: The result was a vindication of the candidate’s moderate, low-key campaign strategy

Brussels EditionBB

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Sánchez wins big in Spain — France first, Balkans second? — Juncker’s secret

Danske DailyDanske Bank
Spain could see government without Catalan separatists

Eco Day EuropeBB
China to Boost Europe, Trade Talks, A Data-Heavy Week * Rebound in no. 2 economy will benefit euro area, Goldman says * U.S., China return to table in another round of trade talks

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler

Five Things to Start Your Day USBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

US Futures Drift Lower As Chinese Stocks Extend Worst Drop Of 2019

Eco Day USBB
Fed's 1990s Playbook, Trade Talks, Carney Isn't Sorry * Central bank may end up seeing 1995-96 rate cuts as template * U.S., China face unresolved issues as Trump-Xi meeting awaited

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