Bershidsky:
Economic Nationalism Made Eastern Europe More Resilient – BB
Germany’s
economic troubles are more painful for some ex-Communist countries than for
others.
Bershidsky:
Europeans Want the EU to Act Like a Superpower – BB
The
bloc’s new leaders are underestimating their citizens’ appetite for strategic
independence.
Bershidsky:
EU Pipeline Ruling Helps Ukraine Thwart Russia – BB
Putin
wants to use the natural gas transmission system to squeeze the Ukrainian
government. A European court just made that harder.
The
Jack Bauers of Europe Love Facial Recognition – BB
As
regulators wake up to the threat of this intrusive and flawed technology,
governments and police are pushing back with an unconvincing public-safety
defense.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Ashworth:
Mario Draghi Reaches Again for the Bond-Buying Bazooka – BB
More
QE will be largely meaningless in terms of economic impact, but the ECB simply
cannot afford to let the euro strengthen.
Monetary
policy decisions
– ECB
Introductory
statement to the press conference (with Q&A) – ECB
Details
on purchases of assets with yields below the deposit facility rate – ECB
Changes
to new targeted longer-term refinancing operations – ECB
Two-tier
system for remunerating excess liquidity holdings – ECB
ECB
staff macroeconomic projections, Sep 2019 – ECB
ECB Cuts Rates, Revives QE to Lift Growth as Draghi Era Ends – BB
QE
plus rate cut comes despite resistance from core governors * Bonds rallied
before giving up gains, euro erased initial drop
ECB cuts rates and tells governments to act – FT
Fresh
stimulus package for eurozone as growth forecast downgraded
El-Erian:
ECB’s Open-Ended Push Leaves It More Isolated – BB
The
central bank’s aggressive move makes it shoulder even more of the economic
burden.
Ashworth:
Draghi Throws Everything But the Kitchen Sink at Europe's Problems – BB
The
soon-to-depart ECB president has delivered another monetary master class,
providing a jolt of stimulus but leaving wriggle room for his successor.
Editorial:
Draghi’s Last Gasp Won’t Be Enough – BB
With
its latest easing, the ECB has bumped against the limits of what it can do. It
badly needs help from governments.
Draghi
Gives Banks Pain Relief as ECB Negative Rates Deepen – BB
Central
bank exempts some deposits from negative rate costs * Bank stocks slip as rate
concerns outweigh relief plan
Martinuzzi:
Draghi Kicks Banks Where It Really Hurts – BB
A
longer spell of negative rates will be painful for lenders. But it’s no excuse
to postpone more cost cuts.
Draghi
Faced Unprecedented ECB Revolt as Core Europe Resisted QE – BB
France,
Germany, Netherlands opposed immediate QE resumption * ECB Markets Chief Benoit
Coeure was also against the move
Palace
Revolt at the ECB, Legitimacy of Policy out the Window – Wolf
Street
Draghi’s
desperate shenanigans thicken.
Authers:
Draghi’s Utmost Is Still Not Enough – BB
Trump
was impressed; the market wasn’t. The euro zone needs fiscal support.
Falling
short of ‘whatever it takes’ – ABN
AMRO
The
ECB announcements were broadly in line with expectations * Despite the
open-ended nature of the programme, the size of the QE programme is very small
and, as such, the macroeconomic impact of these measures will be relatively
modest * QE will likely last for the foreseeable future, and a step up in the
pace looks likely at some point.
ECB
Watch: Less than meets the eye – Nordea
The
ECB announced a package of easing measures, but Draghi’s detailed message was
less dovish than the initial easing announcement implied. We think more easing
will be in store in December, which will keep downside pressure on bond yields.
Understanding
ECB's tiering system
– Danske
Bank
The
introduction of the tiering system is set to result in the weighted deposit
rate at the ECB being around -28bp, which effectively is tighter than the
current rate just shy of -40bp. That also means that despite the 10bp cut in
the deposit rate, the banks' weighted deposit rate overall in the euro area is
set to rise.
Mario
Draghi passes the baton – BNP
PARIBAS
Market
expectations were elevated but the Governing Council did not disappoint. The
comprehensive nature of the package, with
the introduction of
state-dependent forward guidance,
take away the
need to envisage
additional measures in the
foreseeable future * ECB watching
has been narrowed
to monitoring the
gap between inflation
and the ECB
target * Given certain
negative side effects
of the current
monetary mix, which
are acknowledged by
the Governing Council,
fiscal policy, where leeway
is available, is
now requested to
step up to
the plate, so
as to foster
growth and speed
up convergence of inflation to target * The policy baton has
been passed
UNITED STATES
FOMC
Preview
– Danske
Bank
Another
Fed cut without pre-committing to further easing
US
Fed policy: Insurance against failure – ING
“Mid-cycle easing” will remain the theme as
the Federal Reserve delivers another 25bp interest rate cut on Wednesday. It
will be justified as insurance to mitigate the trade and global headwinds
facing the economy. Rising inflation and a strong consumer mean anyone
expecting a more dovish message will be left disappointed
OTHER
MONETARY POLICY INEFFECTIVENESS
Gongloff:
Big Central Bankers Have Big Problems – BB
The
Fed and ECB are being forced to act, even if it won’t do any good.
Ashoka
Mody: Draghi’s Dangerous Farewell – Project
Syndicate
The
risks of further monetary stimulus measures by the ECB outweigh the benefits.
Additional stimulus will either amount to less than anticipated or will not be
sustained – yet it could still undermine the eurozone's financial system and
public finances in far-reaching ways.
El-Erian:
Fed and ECB Are Stuck in a Shrinking Corner – BB
Everyone’s
looking to the central banks for results that monetary policy can’t deliver.
more
China
Leading Indicators
– Danske
Bank
Weakness
but still not a hard landing