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Thursday, November 15

15th Nov - US Close

Both EURUSD (testing bear channel resistance @ 1.28) and SPX near 'critical' levels. Europe is considered to be in a recession and the 2013 does not look any easier. Sweden is also worsening, but at least they have monetary policy left: EURSEK near resistance levels currently. Friday comes with triple-witching expiration in US, and next week the US will have a long weekend. I believe it will be an interesting day to end the week.


Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups and Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: Industrial Production Seen Up Slightly WSJ
US: Low Range, Medium Volume, High Anxiety – ZH

Reference
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros
 
EUROPE
Has summit deal on EU budget become impossible?Brussels blog / FT
 
Tide turning in Euro-zone credit ratings?Nordea

  RECESSION
CEPR: Euro-Zone Economy Suffers Recession Since 3Q 2012 – WSJ
Recession now, stagnation in 2013 for euro zone – Reuters
The Euro area is in recession – Nordea
Europe’s Recession – Dr Ed’s Blog
Eurozone Back in Recession in Q3 – TIME
The eurozone in recession in ‘all senses of the word’ – alphaville / FT
German economy feels chill of eurozone recession – euobserver
French Economy Survives for Now – WSJ

  PIIGS
Steen's Chronicle: Social tension is now the elephant in the roomSaxo Bank
We have been surprised how little impact the strikes on the streets of Greece, Portugal and Spain have had on policymakers. But this is finally changing: Eurogroup considers direct transfers to Greece.

Greece: End of the EU road? Saxo Bank

IMF Draws Line in Sand on Greek DebtWSJ

Is Rajoy considering an IMF-only bail-out?alphaville / FT

Spain Will be Forced to ChooseCarnegie

The Greek debt trap: missing the wrong targetbruegel

  NORDIC
Sweden: The labour market continues to show resilienceNordea

Finland: Flash GDP – No recessionNordea

More rate cuts in the pipelineNordea (pdf)
We adjust our forecast for the Riksbank’s repo rate. The reasons are surprisingly low inflation and a hike in our unemployment forecast.

EURSEK – 8.70 in 3 monthsNordea (pdf)
Lower repo rate gives weaker SEK: Growth is deteriorating and the Riksbank lower its reporate to 0,75% * Limited effects on the SEK from today´s level * We alter our 3-month EURSEK forecast from 8,50 to 8,70

  ECB
Monthly Bulletin, November 2012ECB (pdf)

Statistics Pocket Book, November 2012ECB (pdf)

The euro as a trusted means of paymentECB
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the joint ECB-MNB conference on “Cost and efficiency of retail payments: Evidence, policy actions and role of central banks”, Budapest, 15 November 2012

The monetary policy of the European Central Bank and its transmission in the euro areaECB
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Università Bocconi, Opening of the academic year 2012-2013, Milan, 15 November 2012
 
UNITED STATES
Fed’s Lacker: Consumers, Businesses Under Cloud of Uncertainty Until Congress Fixes BudgetWSJ

Distinguishing Between a Fed Threshold and Trigger WSJ

Fed’s Williams: Expect QE3 to Continue Well Into 2013WSJ

ASIA
Markets cool on China’s new leadersbeyondbrics / FT

China: (Mis)reading Xibeyondbrics / FT

OTHER
Daily QuickieHistorySquared
IMF on Credit Growth and Crises; Corporate Bond Bubble Chart; Xi Jinping’s Backers

October 2012: The Month in ChartsAlpha Now / Thomson Reuters
October proved to be a tale of two market environments, as the benign, upbeat ‘risk on’ mood of early in the month gradually gave way to a growing degree of risk aversion and even fear by the final trading day of the month.:

Global morning call – ThursdayNordea (pdf)
or read the summary

G10 Weekly: Strategic Scandi OutlookNordea (pdf)
Swedish macro landscape and policy outlook, Norwegian relative outperformance

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