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Source: Thomson
Reuter
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Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Roundup – A
View From My Screens
Roundup – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
The T Report: Risk-Off – TF
Market Advisors
Tomorrow’s Tape: Jobless Claims, Disney, Groupon
Earnings – WSJ
US: Obama's
Re-Election Party Cut Short By Biggest Market Plunge In 1 Year – ZH
Reference
Debt crisis:
live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
EUROPE
Eurozone core
economies under pressure – Sober
Look
Markit’s
European indices bad, while Draghi warns that the crisis is spreading to Germany
Do not forget all the progress made – Nordea
A lot of
progress has been seen already, which should not be forgotten. That said,
plenty of work remains, and as long as weak economic performance continues,
confidence is unlikely to return for good. Many painful years are still in
store.
EU to be federalised in the long run, Merkel
says – euobserver
"Of
course the European Commission will one day become a government, the EU council
a second chamber and the European Parliament will have more powers. But for
now, we have to focus on the euro and give people a little bit of time to come
along," she said.
The convergence between the core and the
periphery economies in the Eurozone – Sober
Look
In effect
the painful periphery adjustments are forcing the core to adjust as well,
contributing to the convergence.
Finnish economy - headwinds increasing – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The
government has based its budget on an assumption of 1% GDP growth in both 2012 and 2013, which
could turn out to be too optimistic. There is no immediate pressure to alter
the budget but households are likely to be under pressure in 2013, when VAT and
a few other taxes are raised at the same time as unemployment is rising.
UNITED STATES
JPMorgan: Close
to 100% of US tax revenues are already eaten up by mandatory spending on
entitlements and other programs, and interest. However, electoral results
suggest the country is in no mood to address entitlement issues right now, will
defer them to another day, and continue to shift towards a high-Federal debt
economic model that bears some resemblance to Europe and Japan. (full post-election thoughts-piece pdf)
Of all the
proposed Fiscal cliff changes, ending the payroll tax cut and starting a series
of healthcare tax increases are done deals in my view. This will result in a
Fiscal Clifflet at a minimum. Moreover, the Republicans have to know that
reducing spending also weakens economic growth, something for which President
Obama could be blamed.
Bungee cord at the ready, will US politicians
jump? – alphaville
/ FT
Democrats
have a track record of getting fiscal legislation through a Republican-led
House by cutting deals. Will they be able to pull off the same trick when it
comes to averting a slew of budget cuts and tax increases that will otherwise
kick in at the end of the year?
Economists Worry About Fiscal Cliff Resolution – WSJ
Forecasters
are worried that since the levers of government are in essentially the same
hands as before the election, lawmakers may be hardening themselves against any
form of compromise to deal with a threat many economist say could bring a new
recession.
Team Macro
Man believe that the path to falling policy uncertainty began this week and the
fiscal cliff may have to be downgraded to "road hump".
FIRE IN THE DISCO! – The Reformed
Broker
First, let
us discuss the Cliff that no one else seems to want to acknowledge - The
Earnings Cliff! This is a very real phenomenon that is very dangerous for both
stocks and the economy as a whole - corporations facing a deceleration in
earnings growth or an outright drop in year-over-year profits DO NOT INCREASE
SPENDING AND HIRING.
OTHER
The Four Regimes (And 40 Years) Of Equity
Valuation – ZH
UBS: Stocks tend to experience very long periods (5-20 years) of either
anemic or exceptional returns… Investment Regimes are defined by secular
multiple expansion or contraction… Over the past two years, the key metric for
valuing stocks has shifted from investment grade to non-investment grade
yields. Given the fiscal situation in both the U.S. and Europe, we believe that this regime will
likely persist until structural imbalances are meaningfully addressed by
policymakers.
Economic and Market Outlook – Nordea (pdf)
If markets
go more into risk-off heading into the winter, long-term investors should be
looking to switch more into risk-on trades.
The impact of commodity index rebalancing – Sober
Look
The overall
impact will be a net inflow into energy commodities, and a net outflow from
agricultural commodities and from base metals.
IN FINNISH
Eduskunta II –
Satiiri veljeskunnista – Olli
Pusa / US Puheenvuoro
Olli Pusa: Renkien
kaappaus – pusa.fi
(pdf)
Suomalaisista työeläkejärjestelmää mainostetaan maailman parhaaksi.
Sitä on jopa ehdotettu suomalaiseksi vientituotteeksi EU:ssa. Olen 30 vuoden
aikana erilaisissa tehtävissä läheltäkin seurannut työeläkejärjestelmän
tapahtumia ja epäilys näiden mainospuheiden paikkansapitävyydestä on suuri.
Työeläkejärjestelmä onkin monella tapaa epäonnistunut, ajastaan jälkeen jäänyt
rakennelma. Sen ongelmia ei vain uskalleta sanoa ääneen.
Suomen talous ei ole
kasvanut vuoteen – euroetana