Here are
the links to review the past week and get ahead with the next one (previous Weekly Support here).
Quick last week: Thanksgiving holiday week in US. China’s monthly PMI surprised to the upside, while
European PMI’s continued being bad – but Germany’s IFO surprised to the upside. No
success in the talks on Greece’s next bailout (masked as ‘extension’
because of political embarrassment) – promised to finish them on Monday... Cyprus bailout agreed – luckily all the
Russian tax evaders will now be bailed out with the help of EU’s tax payers. EU
budget talks collapsed and will continue after the holidays. The markets were
bullish during the week, as I had anticipated. The EURUSD strength is somewhat
surprising given the bad news. Perhaps good to repeat my long-term
view from 21-Oct.
Quick next
week Greece hopefully solved on Monday (means real decision postponed, extension provided to kick the can past German elections), critical fiscal cliff negotiations in US, no killer econ data events - but plenty of less important numbers every day, with US GDP on Wed probably being the main event. Unless surprises happen, moderately bullish week in stock markets and EURUSD is ahead.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
LAST WEEK
Prices
Weekly Scoreboard
– Between
The Hedges
Weekly
Eurozone Watch – Global
Macro Monitor
Week in
Review – Global Macro Monitor
US market
portrait week 48 – Portfolio
Probe
U.S. Equity Sector ETF Performance – Global Macro Monitor
U.S. Equity Sector ETF Performance – Global Macro Monitor
Summary for Week ending 23-Nov – Calculated Risk
Data was positive last week, especially the housing data. Housing starts were at the highest level in four years, but are still very low - and both comments are important. Housing (residential investment) is now a tail wind for the economy, and housing can increase significantly from here.
Data was positive last week, especially the housing data. Housing starts were at the highest level in four years, but are still very low - and both comments are important. Housing (residential investment) is now a tail wind for the economy, and housing can increase significantly from here.
The Weekender –
beyondbrics / FT
Succinct summation of week’s events – The
Big Picture
Weekly Bull/Bear Recap – Rational
Capitalist Speculator
(audio) MarketBeat Week – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
How retail
stocks fare after Black Friday as well as the looming fiscal cliff.
Weekly Rewind – A View From My Screens
Politics this week – The Economist
Weekly Rewind – A View From My Screens
Politics this week – The Economist
Business this week – The
Economist
NEXT WEEK
Schedule for Week of 25-Nov – Calculated Risk
Negotiations concerning the "fiscal slope" in the US will be back in the headlines this week. And, in Europe, the discussion on funding for Greece will resume on Monday.
Negotiations concerning the "fiscal slope" in the US will be back in the headlines this week. And, in Europe, the discussion on funding for Greece will resume on Monday.
Next Week’s Tape: Cyber Monday, Retail Earnings – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
Monday
marks the biggest online shopping day of the year, dubbed Cyber Monday. And in
a relatively light week for corporate earnings, several retailers and food
companies are among those due to report their latest quarterly results.
S&P 500 Earnings Week Ahead – Reuters
Wall Street Week Ahead– Reuters
Political
wrangling to pinch market's nerves, volatility is the name of this game.
(video) US Week Ahead: Retailers hope shopping
spree continues – Reuters
Global Week Ahead: Continued focus on
policymakers – Nordea
(pdf)
Focus is
likely to be on the US fiscal cliff debate and Greece. Revised US Q3 GDP is the most important data release.
Overall we expect no major data surprises compared to consensus estimates.
Weekly Preview – BNY
Mellon
Weekly Focus – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Signs of global recovery underpin market sentiment: In the US, fiscal cliff negotiations continue after the Thanksgiving break. The eurogroup and IMF get another shot at reaching an agreement on Greece. The regional election in Catalonia could bring Spain back into the limelight. We expect data for October to show that Japan is in recession. In Sweden, GDP growth appears to have eased only moderately in Q3.
Signs of global recovery underpin market sentiment: In the US, fiscal cliff negotiations continue after the Thanksgiving break. The eurogroup and IMF get another shot at reaching an agreement on Greece. The regional election in Catalonia could bring Spain back into the limelight. We expect data for October to show that Japan is in recession. In Sweden, GDP growth appears to have eased only moderately in Q3.
G10 Weekly: Different degrees in hell – Nordea (pdf)
The prime reason to our rather gloomy assessment on the world economy is the fact that there is too much debt in relation to income. * Bank of Japan will meet only a couple of days after the election, and this could possibly be the first occasion for the new leadership to affect monetary policy.
Weekly Credit Update – Danske Bank (pdf)
The prime reason to our rather gloomy assessment on the world economy is the fact that there is too much debt in relation to income. * Bank of Japan will meet only a couple of days after the election, and this could possibly be the first occasion for the new leadership to affect monetary policy.
Weekly Credit Update – Danske Bank (pdf)
Markets
have during the past two weeks been characterized by more clear risk aversion
on weak macro data…Nevertheless, implied vol within both rates, equities, FX,
and commodities have been marked further down as low-for-even-longer view has
been confirmed. For the first time in five years, Nordea Risk Perception Index
has thus dropped below 80
EMEA Weekly, Week 48 – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The Hungarian central bank disregards inflation and continues to ease…South Africa faces increased inflationary pressure and has adopted a cautious approach towards monetary policy…Lithuania’s new prime minister promised to maintain fiscal discipline.
The Hungarian central bank disregards inflation and continues to ease…South Africa faces increased inflationary pressure and has adopted a cautious approach towards monetary policy…Lithuania’s new prime minister promised to maintain fiscal discipline.
Emerging: Week Ahead – beyondbrics / FT
This week the body of Yasser Arafat is due to be exhumed, the 18th Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol takes place in Doha, and we have financial reports from Essar Energy and Luckoil.
EM FX Monocle – Shaky ground – Nordea (pdf)
This week the body of Yasser Arafat is due to be exhumed, the 18th Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol takes place in Doha, and we have financial reports from Essar Energy and Luckoil.
EM FX Monocle – Shaky ground – Nordea (pdf)
or the summary
Market
Analysis: – The Short Side of the Long
FX Technical Outlook – Marc
to Market
Yen and
dollar weakness set to continue
Weekly Fixed Income Overview and Strategies – TF
Market Advisors
Chase for
yield is on
CALENDARS
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
Economic
Calendar – fxstreet.com
Monthly
Economic Calendar – fxstreet.com
Economic
Calendar – BB
EU calendar – europa.eu
Markkinakalenteri
– Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri
– Taloussanomat
Agenda: –
euobserver
REFERENCE
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank