Good evening! Usual Euro-related horror stories, plus plenty of links in Finnish.
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| JPY has been very weak after the talk on possible inflation targeting by the BoJ... |
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| ...but the weekly chart hints this could be only the beginning... |
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and
Commentary
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
Roundup – A
View From My Screens
Roundup – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
Europe: Continues Lower
Left To Upper Right – ZH
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
EUROPE
Bilaterals, funding tweaks and 'standing
around' to mark EU budget summit – euobserver
A mooted
attempt to agree a 26-countries only budget - without the UK - is seen as unlikely because it
would be both thoroughly complicated and politically damaging.
Catalonia's election will be taking place this Sunday…Catalonia stands a somewhat better chance of
obtaining more autonomy over its finances - which may be good enough for its
citizens.
GREECE
Still no Greek deal – Nordea
The bottom
line is that Greece will still get its money in due
time. Greece has done its part and the differences of
opinion are more of principal than of money. In that sense, the story is
unchanged: The Greek saga continues with short-term fixes whenever a new
deadline comes up, while a longer-term solution might be considered after the
German election next autumn.
In light of
Greece’s erratic program implementation so far, they
are right to keep its debt on their books until the end of the reform process
in maybe 2015. They reason that it is better to wait before deciding on the
scale of the losses their taxpayers will have to absorb until more information
about Greece’s future is available.
Mohamed El-Erian: The IMF is right. Greece urgently
needs OSI. The longer Europe resists,
the greater the risks to the integrity of Greece and to
the credibility of Eurozone policy responses.
Earlier on
Wednesday, the German opposition threatened to boycott the country's 2013
budget until Chancellor Angela Merkel "reveals the real cost of the Greek
bailout" and admits that taxpayers will have to take losses on German
loans.
UNITED STATES
The latest
survey of primary dealers is showing only 41% expecting action by mid 2015,
while the futures are now pointing to a 50% probability.
Final November Consumer Sentiment at 82.7, MarkIt Flash PMI shows Improvement in Manufacturing – Calculated Risk
Final November Consumer Sentiment at 82.7, MarkIt Flash PMI shows Improvement in Manufacturing – Calculated Risk
FISCAL
CLIFF
Why We Build Fiscal Cliffs – HBR
It's Time to Cut a Deal on the Federal Budget – reason
We will
soon find out if Chili Palmer was right when he said, “Sometimes you do your
best work with a gun to your head.”
About that Fiscal Cliff – reason
The
"fiscal cliff" is less frightening than the bankruptcy cliff.
ASIA
1.Leadership
divisions and scandals 2. Slowing economic growth 3. Irresolvable territorial
disputes 4. Environmental disasters in the making 5. No new ideas
The Shirakawa redemption – Free
exchange / The Economist
There is a
lesson in the story for politicians elsewhere. Some may read the Japanese
experience as suggesting that insufficiently expansionary monetary policy is no
excuse not to pursue fiscal consolidation. A better lesson, however, might be
that central bankers worried about long-run fiscal conditions would be wise to
push their economies back to potential as quickly as possible.
OTHER
Daily Quickie – HistorySquared
Statistics vs Machine Learning; Global Housing
Bubbles, Norway in
Particular; Asian Loans Surging, Spells Trouble
Markets
have during the past two weeks been characterized by more clear risk aversion
on weak macro data…Nevertheless, implied vol within both rates, equities, FX,
and commodities have been marked further down as low-for-even-longer view has
been confirmed. For the first time in five years, Nordea Risk Perception Index
has thus dropped below 80
EM FX Monocle – Shaky ground – Nordea
(pdf)
or the summary
IN FINNISH
Suomi maksaa
EU-jäsenyydestä yhä enemmän – YLE
Suomi on maksanut 2000-luvulla EU:lle yli 3,6 miljardia
euroa enemmän kuin on saanut takaisin. Maksut ovat kasvaneet roimasti etenkin
viime vuosina ja kasvun pelätään jatkuvan. Neuvottelut EU:n rahoituksesta
seuraavalle seitsemälle vuodelle alkavat torstaina.
EU:n rahavirrat
kulkevat pohjoisesta etelään – YLE
EU:n suurimmat nettomaksajat löytyvät Pohjois-Euroopasta.
Suhteellisesti eniten unionilta saavat maat taas ovat tyypillisesti eteläisen
Euroopan vanhoja jäsenmaita ja 2000-luvulla jäseneksi liittyneitä Itä-Euroopan
valtioita.
Miten paljon EU saa
maksaa? – YLE
EU:n rahoituksesta käydään kovaa vääntöä. Miten paljon olet
valmis maksamaan?
Katainen toivoo
EU:lta säästöjä – YLE
Pääministeri Jyrki Katainen (kok.) toivoo huomenna alkavalta
Eurooppa-neuvoston kokoukselta päätöksiä, joilla EU rajoittaa kulujaan.
Euroopan hassut
hurjat hirviöt – Petri
Sarvamaa / US Puheenvuoro
Tie EU:n budjettileikkauksiin on vaarallinen tie. Sen tien
päässä on koko unionin murentaminen. Kansallinen uho kaikuu yhä kuuluvammin
ympäri Eurooppaa.
Poliittisen tahdon
voimannäyte – Henri
Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro
Kreikka-neuvotteluista
Komissio haastaa
Suomen oikeuteen energiadirektiivin toteuttamisesta – TS
Kolme reittiä ulos
kriisistä – kaikki "mahdottomia" – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjillä on kolme edes teoriassa mahdollista keinoa
ratkaista kriisi. Kaksi niistä on äärimmäisen epätodennäköisiä tai käytännössä
mahdottomia. Kolmaskin on erittäin vaikea – ja lisäksi tyystin sopimaton
kriisikokousten esityslistoille. Tiistain Kreikka-kokous ei käsitellyt
ainuttakaan näistä keinoista.
EK:n Häkämies
hylkäisi raamisopimuksen – YLE
Häkämies pitää liittokohtaista palkkaratkaisua parempana
vaihtoehtona kuin raamisopimusta. Myös kolmen päivän koulutusvapaa saa pakit
EK:n tuoreelta toimitusjohtajalta.