See my last night's long post for plenty of high-quality reads. For additional commentary, check my new morning piece. Tension in Middle East, US budget talks, China's new leadership. EURUSD trying to drop after rejecting 1.28 level. No convincing moves in equity indices as of yet - potential double bottom developing in SPX, but too early to say. Europe looks just as doomed as for the past couple of years. Same old, same old.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: US Industrial Prod &
TIC, EZ Current Acct
– Saxo
Bank
The
headline figure for Eurozone current account will probably not surprise by
much, but the geographical breakdown might provide some interesting tidbits.
Meanwhile, price response to the US Industrial Production will be key for the
week ahead.
Asia held currencies at, or near, NY
closing levels in a quiet Friday session.Data releases focused on Singapore – one “good” and one bad. On the
positive side, external trade picked up in Oct.On the negative side, Q3 GDP was revised heavily lower
Market Preview: US Budget talks begin today; EU
trade data on tap –
Saxo
Bank
European
markets are expected to open lower Friday, ahead of budget deficit reduction
talks in the US. Investors will be keeping an eye
on Eurozone trade data as well as US industrial production figures for further
cues on market sentiment.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Risk
appetite retreated yesterday on the back of soft economic data, the US political gridlock, disappointing
earnings forecasts and tension in the Middle East. Today is relatively quiet in terms
of potential market movers.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)
Euroalue odotettua kevyemmässä taantumassa * Suomi: Ei
teknistä taantumaa * EUR/USD jatkoi nousuaan kahden kuukauden pohjistaan
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
Osakemarkkinan laskettelu jatkui, kun makrodata USA:sta oli
pehmeää. Euroalue odotetusti jälleen taantumaan. IMF luovuttamassa Kreikan
talouden suhteen, 20.11. Euroryhmä päättää Kreikasta. Osakefutuurit nollassa,
indikoiden flättiä avausta. Oikea osake oikeaan aikaan – mallisalkkupisteytys
sekä tekninen näkökulma yhdistettynä: Nyt mielenkiintoisia ostoja olisivat:
F-Secure, Nordea, YIT, Elisa ja Nokian Renkaat. Nyt hyvä hetki myydä: Nokia, HKScan.
Morning Briefing (EU/US): "Have yourself a
merry little Christmas" – BNY
Mellon
Risk
aversion looks like a growing theme into year end
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat
EUROPE
The Curse Of The “Irreversible” Euro – Testosterone
Pit
This is
playing out across the Eurozone. In their effort to keep the Eurozone intact,
politicians, elected or not, are beginning to sacrifice the fabric of the
European Union, the colorful family of 27 nations that used to wage war on each
other. The euro is creating artificial problems between peoples. And by being
“irreversible,” as ECB President Mario Draghi had said, it has become a
curse—and a religious dictum that must not be questioned regardless of how much
havoc it may ultimately wreak.
UNITED STATES
Lighthouse Macro Report Nov 2012 – Lighthouse IM (pdf)
Watching for the bounce – Humble
Student
While the bears
appear to be in control of the tape right now, I would reiterate my caution to
get short at current levels. If you want to get bearish, at least wait for the
rally to enter your position.
Key Points From the Q3 Earnings Season – PragCap
ASIA
IMF: AUSTRALIA
2012 Article IV Consultation – IMF
Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes – IMF
Financial
System Stability Assessment – IMF
CHINA
Chinese perma-growth at risk as Leninists
tighten Politburo grip – The
Telegraph
This is
beginning to look like a shocker for the world economy, with big implications
for global growth, trade, oil and commodity demand, investment flows, etc. Two
key reformers were shut out of the seven-man Standing Committee
Leadership transition looks like a conservative
victory – Danske
Bank (pdf)
China has just completed its
carefully-scripted, once-in-a-decade leadership transition. The Politburo was
cut from nine to seven members and incoming general secretary and president Xi
Jinping will also become head of the military. With these remaining
uncertainties settled, Jamil Anderlini, Beijing bureau chief; James Blitz,
diplomatic editor, and David Pilling, Asia editor, join John Aglionby to
discuss how the new leadership will cope with an increasingly demanding
population and whether the world will engage with Beijing any differently
OTHER
Thoughts about the Euro and Yen Price Action – Marc
to Market
FX Forecast Update – November – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Weaker
dollar, yen and sterling in 2013, but mind the cliff
Yield Forecast Update – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Event risks
continue to dominate sentiment
EMEA Weekly: Week 47 – Danske
Bank (pdf)
If the
world is to return to growth, countries with a surplus need to bear a bigger
burden