Euro selling off, for several reasons:
- we had a break to the downside from a technical range
- Greece votes on austerity measures (risk of losing further bailouts)
- Spain's budget forecasts are based on growth forecasts that nobody, including the European Commission, believes anymore
- Bad growth numbers overall -> debt defaults approaching
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
US Opening
News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
Morning MarketBeat: Be Aware of Election Hangover – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
US session ahead
Pre-market
Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market
Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market
– NASDAQ
Earnings
& Events – The
Street
MarketCurrents
– Seeking
Alpha
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
EUROPE
Some more (draft) bad news for the Spanish
government – Open
Europe
If
confirmed, the Commission's forecasts will deal another blow to the credibility
of the Spanish government - not least because Madrid decided to stick to
outdated growth predictions to table its budget for next year, despite the IMF
and others clearly warning that the recession was going to be much worse.
The vote that counts for markets – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Greek
parliament votes today on austerity (Troika insists). Expectation is a deal with
two years more time, maturity extension and interest rate cut. European Commission
sees Spain unable to meet deficit targets as the
recession is deepening.
The final
shape of the European banking union should therefore look differently from what
is currently on the table. It should be based on a strong supervisor who can be
held to account by a strong parliament, but who takes decisions independently
of monetary policy.
The volume
of exports increased from Q2 while the volume of imports decreased. Compared to
2011Q3, imports fell sharply but exports hardly at all.
ECB PREVIEWS
Draghi still waiting for Rajoy – Danske
Bank (pdf)
No action
expected. Also a good review of measures left in the toolbox of the ECB.
ECB Preview: Watch Greece and Spain – Marc
to Market
The focus,
as is often the case, will be on the press conference. Here two countries will
likely dominate the discussion Greece and Spain.
ECB in wait-and-see mode – Nordea
The outlook
has not changed and hence new easing measures are not justified at this point.
If anything, the ECB could be considering new measures to improve monetary
transmission in the periphery, eg reducing haircuts. We view the event as
market neutral.
UNITED STATES
The Morning After – ZH
Pimco and
Socgen
Goldman: Slight Changes to Fiscal Policy
Assumptions and Forecast – ZH
ASIA
Demystifying Chinese politics: a look behind
the closed doors – Nordea
(pdf)
China watchers have been waiting for this
day for several months. The biggest political event in China in more than a decade is about to
come off, as the 18th Communist Party Congress begins in Beijing tomorrow. The fifth generation of
national leaders arises.
OTHER
Nordea Risk Perception Index – Nordea
(pdf)
Risk
sentiment nearly unchanged. Range trading may continue for a prolonged period
but upside risks to vol markets is present.