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Saturday, February 22

22nd Feb - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Friday Close
Market Prices – Global Macro Monitor
Silver Surges As Bonds, Stocks, And The USD End Week Unchanged – ZH
Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges

The Economist’s Weeklies:

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk

Economic CalendarBerenberg
Ifo, EU Commission economic sentiment survey: moderate recovery on track * Eurozone credit growth: signs of stabilisation? * Eurozone inflation and unemployment: worries or relief before crucial ECB meeting?

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken

UK Next Week's Agenda and Wrap UpHandelsbanken

Kalenteri – Nordea

Wall Street Week AheadReuters
S&P 500 may stall near high; Yellen in focus

The Week Ahead : Setting the Stage for MarchMarc to Market
The week ahead is a transitional week.  It is important in terms of price action, as the euro and sterling are threatening to break out to the upside, while the Canadian dollar is threatening a downside break.  We caution that ahead of the key events in early March, which includes the ECB meeting and US employment data, breakouts, if they do materialize, are unlikely to be sustained.

5 Things to Watch on the U.S. Economic CalendarWSJ
The end to a short month will bring a second look at the fourth-quarter 2013 economy as well as new data on housing and consumer sectors. Several Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled to discuss their views on the economy. And—weather permitting–Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver her postponed monetary policy testimony before the Senate.

What Matters in the Week Ahead for Global Markets – WSJ

Europe’s Week Ahead: Looking for Euro Zone InflationWSJ

EU Week Ahead: Ukraine, Economic ForecastsWSJ
The European Commission’s economic forecasts, a meeting of defense ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and a visit to Brussels from Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff take pride of place in this week’s European Union agenda, although much of the focus is again likely to be on the bloc’s response to events in Ukraine.
Weighing the Week AheadDash of Insight
Does weakness in housing threaten the economy and stocks?

Key Events And Issues In The Coming WeekZH
From Goldman Sachs, BofA, SocGen

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s Analytics
(requires free registration)

New Financial ForecastsNordea
Or summary here.

Weekly Focus: Global manufacturing cycle is peakingDanske Bank
The global manufacturing cycle seems to be peaking at the beginning of 2014, as ISM/PMIs for US, China and the euro area have all started the year on a weak note. We believe this is a temporary dent in the global manufacturing cycle as Chinese tightening has slowed Chinese investment spending and some temporary boosts to the US are fading and dampening US growth for a while. Central bank easing is on the agenda again. Comments from ECB members continue to suggest that all options are on the table but lately it seems consensus is building that a halt to sterilising the SMP programme is the preferred measure. The Fed so far seems little affected by recent data

Strategy: Peak in manufacturing cycle puts easing back on the tableDanske Bank
There are also increasing signs that the US housing recovery is hitting a soft patch as a result of the rise in mortgage rates in 2013… However, we still regard the underlying fundamentals for the global economy as strengthening.

Week AheadNordea
US: 2nd release of Q4 GDP, expect a down revision from 3.2% to 2.7%, which will probably not cause to much disturbance in markets. EZ: Ifo index on Monday and flash CPI on Friday, both for February. Final inflation numbers for January, money and credit flows as well unemployment data and sentiment indicators from the European Commission. UK: 2nd release of the Q4 GDP. We expect a small upwards revision.

Northern Lights - To cut or not to cut?Nordea
Sweden: Inflation surprises again Norway: Continued slowdown Denmark: Raised state of alert 

Scandi markets aheadDanske Bank
Weak Swedish GDP xpected, more upside for NOK/SEK and government bond auctions in Sweden and Norway 

Editorial: Historical weakness in French inflation. Excluding taxes impact, prices are not increasing anymore… This stagnation could trigger ECB’s action. Global: A dove with a velvet glove… US: Do not expect the blossom before Spring! EZ: Base effects and inflation 

Viikkokatsaus: Inflaatio ratkaiseeNordea
Euroalueen inflaatio, rahan määrä ja talouselämän luottamus * USA:sta asuntomarkkinadataa, luottamuslukuja, BKT * Fed ei välitä, vaikka USA:n data pehmenee

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank
The credit market this week was rather uncertain. Continued worries about emerging markets were tempered by rather mixed macro indicators from the US.

European FI Strategy - Blame it on the weather Nordea
Global: Weather argument will not work forever: bond markets have limited patience. We do not expect yields to fall much further from current levels, but the upside capped in the short term. Risks tilted towards a further fall in rates – large short positions leave the market vulnerable to a further drop in yields EZ: Volatility in short EUR swap rates indicative of strongly varying market perception on the ECB. We favour paying 6M3M Eonia. Peripheral tightening may well continue short term, especially in Spain. EZ inflation: If EUR rates break fundamentally lower, inflation is a firm candidate as the smoking gun. The sensitivity to the coming inflation prints is large. Downside surprises can put the perception of “firmly anchored” to rest

Euro Rates UpdateNordea

Credit OutlookMoody’s
(free registration required)

FX Outlook: Skeptical of BreakoutsMarc to Market
The technical outlook for the dollar against the major currencies is not clear.  Yet, given the key events over the next two weeks, we are suspicious of the market's willingness to sustain breakouts... It is in the upper end of its 5-month 5-cent trading range, roughly $1.33-$1.38.  This may help explain why implied volatility made new multi-year lows in recent days.  It is hard to be bullish the euro, if you have a 3-6 month horizon or longer, even if you recognize, as we do, risk that the euro could see $1.40.
Global FX Strategy - The EUR is not "risky" anymoreNordea
Summary here.

EMEA Weekly, Week 9Danske Bank

EM Preview: The Week Ahead – Marc to Market

EM Week Aheadbeyondbrics / FT

Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –

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