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EUROPE
ECB's
Weidmann rebuffs French calls on euro, growth: Le Monde – Reuters
It is up to
each euro zone government to take the right steps internally for growth while
monetary policy should not aim at weakening the euro to improve
competitiveness, ECB policymaker Jens Weidmann said on Tuesday, rebuffing
French calls for more efforts from Germany and the currency area's central bank.
Austerity,
demographics, tight monetary policy
UNITED KINGDOM
U.K.
Wages Post First Drop Since 2009 as Jobless Rate Falls – BB
Carney
Pledges No Rush to Raise Rates as BOE Focuses on Wages – BB
BOE's
Quarterly Inflation Report Pushes Sterling Down – Marc
to Market
Bank of
England slashes wages forecast, says key for policy – Reuters
The Bank of
England forecast on Wednesday that wages would grow far more slowly than
previously expected and linked their rate of increase closely to borrowing
costs, suggesting it was in no hurry to raise Britain's record low interest
rates.
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Ukraine’s
Currency Drop May Swell Emergency Bailout Needs – WSJ
Ukraine’s
plummeting hryvnia and deteriorating growth outlook could balloon the embattled
country’s emergency bailout costs by nearly $10 billion and intensify
speculation a debt restructuring is on the horizon.
Sanctions
must prompt a rethink on Russian investments – FT
Mohamed
El-Erian: Escalation in tensions will eventually affect market valuation
EU’s
East Braced for Sanctions Pain With GDP Set to Slide – BB
The
European Union’s biggest eastern economies are flagging as escalating sanctions
against Russia and retaliation from President Vladimir Putin exacerbate the
euro area’s stuttering recovery from a record slump.
Can
Europe Survive Without Russian Gas? – Visual
Capitalist
CRISIS COUNTRIES
Portugal:
Pent-up demand to boost growth – Danske
Bank
Crisis
stalks Europe again as deflation deepens, Germany stalls – The
Telegraph
Data from
Germany, Italy and Portugal put pressure on ECB to act
Young
Italian Prime Minister Dares (!) to Defy Troika – Wolf
Street
"I’m
not part of that system that has destroyed this country," said Prime
Minister Renzi. National leaders were deposed by the Troika for lesser sins.
MACRO NUMBERS
Spanish
Prices Drop at Fastest Pace Since 2009 Credit Crunch – BB
Industrial
production down by 0.3% in euro area – Eurostat
Euro area
industrial production unexpectedly declines in June – TradingFloor
Unexpected
drop in euro zone output clouds recovery hopes – Reuters
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
This Fed
hawk could signal a shift in the opposition – WaPo
One of the
Federal Reserve’s most outspoken officials may not be so hawkish after all. Richmond
Fed President Jeff Lacker said he believes the central bank will not raise its
target for short-term interest rates until next year.
Yellen
resolved to avoid raising rates too soon, fearing downturn – Reuters
Approaching
a historic turn in U.S. monetary policy, Janet Yellen has staked her tenure as
chair of the Federal Reserve on a simple principle: she'd rather fight
inflation than another economic downturn.
Heading
Into Jackson Hole –
Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Anything
other than a dovish message coming from the Jackson Hole conference will be a
surprise. Tight labor markets alone will
not justify an aggressive pace of tightening.
An aggressive pace requires that those tight labor markets manifest
themselves into higher wage growth and higher inflation. Yellen seems content to normalize slowly
until she sees the white in the eyes of inflation.
JULY RETAIL SALES
Retail
Sales Miss For Third Month In A Row, Worst Print Since January – ZH
U.S. retail
sales flat in July, autos fall for second straight month – Reuters
Retail
Sales Unchanged in Slow Start to U.S. Third Quarter – BB
Retail
sales show moderation following post-winter rebound – Danske
Bank
Retail
Sales: Another Month of Disappointing Data – dshort
Retail
Sales unchanged in July – Calculated
Risk
US retail
sales flat in July, miss expectations of 0.2% - TradingFloor
ASIA
JAPAN
Japan’s
Quantitative Confusion – WSJ
Japan’s
dreadful second-quarter GDP raises the specter of additional central-bank
action. Yet the Bank of Japan says its already massive monetary stimulus is
open-ended. Then why do analysts think the bank needs to clarify its intentions
soon? One reason might be a BOJ table that forecasts the size of its balance
sheet. It only goes to the end of this year.
Japan’s GDP
sacrifice is price well paid – Reuters
Breakingviews
Japan GDP
growth collapses amid sales tax shock – TradingFloor
Japan’s Economy Shrinks the Most Since
2011 Quake on Tax – BB
5 Takeaways
from Japan’s GDP – WSJ
GDP
suggests tax hike not cakewalk, more BoJ easing back in focus – Danske
Bank
CHINA
China's
GDP: Demographics call the shots – TradingFloor
Economists
React: China’s Lending, Investment Slow – WSJ
China: weak
July data suggests recovery remains fragile – Danske
Bank
China
Credit Gauge Plunges as Expansion in Money Supply Slows – BB
China
Industrial-Output Growth Slows in Sign Recovery at Risk – BB
China's
July economic data points to further softness – Reuters
OTHER
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Apart from
a few sweet spots like the U.K. and the U.S., the global economy is struggling.
Japanese growth crumbled in the second quarter, under the weight of a
consumption tax increase and sudden sharp rise in inflation. China appears to
be slowing. In the euro zone, Italy’s in recession, France is probably there
too, while Germany is stuttering. Rising geopolitical tensions are causing
businesses to turn cautious. Emerging markets are suffering a hangover after a
couple of boom years. Of course, there could be rebounds all round in the
second half of the year, especially if the crisis between Russia and Ukraine is
resolved quickly. Is that likely though?
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: More Signs of Labor Momentum As Fed Officials Head to Mountains * Banks
Retreat From Repo Market in Face of New Fed Regulations * Banks Push to Delay
Volcker Rule on Investments * Bank of England Signals Rate Hike in Early 2015
if Wage Growth Picks Up * Japan’s Sharp GDP Slump Spurs Stimulus Talk
Fluid US
and UK Rate Expectations – Marc
to Market
Three
geopolitical risks investors are ignoring – Saxo
Bank
US mid-term
elections * Scottish independence referendum * Anti-corruption drive in China
Three
eclectic bullish trade ideas – Humble
Student
Major
asset charts – Short Side of
Long
The
Shadows of the Bond Market’s Past, Part II – The
Aleph Blog
JPMorgan
Joins Goldman in Designing Derivatives for a New Generation – BB
2007
Deja Vu: Banks and Short Sellers Dump Risk on Chumps – naked
capitalism
FINNISH
"Suomen markkinassa on jotain todella
poikkeuksellista" – TalSa
Stockmannin toimitusjohtajan Hannu Penttilän mukaan yhtiön
ongelmat kumpuavat lähinnä kotimaasta, ei ulkomailta. Kaupan luottamus
talouteen on ennätysalhaalla. Penttilä ei usko suhdanteen kääntyvän vielä kohti
parempaa.
Putin on pinteessä – Vesa
Varhee / TalSa
Kolumni Venäjän presidentti Vladimir Putin on ajautumassa
kenties ylipääsemättömään ahdinkoon. Ukrainan tapahtumista kehittynyt
kauppasota EU:n ja Yhdysvaltojen kanssa vaurioittaa Venäjän taloutta ja
kansalaisten elämää monin tavoin, ja tyytymättömyys saattaa yllättää
presidentin. Maaliskuun vallankumous vuonna 1917 osoitti, mitä tapahtuu, kun
Venäjän kansalta loppuu leipä.