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EUROPE
Will this
lead to more government belt tightening? Or will policy makers decide that
their electors just won’t stand the pain?
At the
center of the Bank of England’s (BoE) stance on monetary policy there is the
issue of pay growth: as long as real wages growth remains low, the central bank
signaled it will not advance its plans to raise interest rates in early 2015… But
some indicators suggest real wages are set to grow soon.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB
survey points to weaker inflation this year and next – Reuters
Euro zone
inflation will be weaker than previously expected this year and next, an
updated survey for the European Central Bank indicated on Thursday, darkening
the euro zone's economic outlook.
Draghi
is “Waiting for Godot” – Historinhas
Policy is
made for Germany, so it will come too late.
What
should the European Central Bank actually do? – Marginal
Revolution
The
policies that could work are unpopular.
ECB
would, for now, prefer to do nothing – FT
Officials
believe measures unveiled in June will boost growth
The ECB
is not doing its job. Again. – Coppola
Comment
The ECB is
not doing its job. It is sitting on its hands and muttering about inflation
while the Eurozone sinks further into depression. Even the mighty Germany's economy is shrinking, France is on the floor, Italy is in a slump and Spain's once-promising recovery looks set
to be curtailed as consumer prices slide.
Germany is itself a victim of EMU’s
austerity fanatics –
The
Telegraph
The ECB is
paralysed by politics. It cannot secure German assent for quantitative easing
because Berlin/Buba are using stimulus as an instrument to enforce their reform
dictates, and they are not yet satisfied that Italy is complying. Monetary
policy has been contaminated.
Recap 2014-08-14
: Bunds – Global
Macro Trading
Markets are
pricing in BOTH of the following: ECB will miss its inflation target over the
next 3 decades and EU Growth will likely be zero over the next 3 decades.
Monthly
Bulletin, August 2014
– ECB
Statistics
Pocket Book, August 2014 – ECB
GERMANY
German
industry: Economic engine sputters but does not stall – DB
Research
Following
the disappointing performance of German industry in Q2 2014, we have revised
our production forecast for the year 2014 from +4% to +2.5%. Despite the
current geopolitical risks we see no general change in the trend but rather a
temporary dip. In the chemicals industry, mechanical engineering and the metal
industry we have corrected our forecast downwards – in some cases markedly.
Negative
German GDP Sends Bunds Under 1% For The First Time Ever – ZH
First
take on German GDP
– TradingFloor
The end
of the Wirtschaftswunder? – Merkelnomics
FRANCE
France
warns on budget deficit target – FT
France Risks EU Deficit Clash After
Scrapping Targets –
Reuters
The French
government abandoned its 2014 deficit targets after the economy unexpectedly
failed to grow for a second straight quarter, risking a clash with European
partners striving to meet their own fiscal goals.
Zero
growth in France – TradingFloor
UKRAINE /RUSSIA
The
emergency exit's this way Vladimir – TradingFloor
President
Putin searching for way out of Ukraine conflict after Malaysian jet tragedy * Putin
hopes to snatch moral victory over West with peaceful resolution to conflict * One
scenario points towards subjugation of Ukraine and decade-long Russia isolation
Rosneft
Said to Ask State for Up to $42 Billion After Sanctions – BB
Anders
Aslund: What Putin can learn from Stalin’s winter war – Kyivpost
OTHER CRISIS COUNTRIES
Italy:
New political agenda and support from the ECB – Danske
Bank
Italy's
Renzi must bring back the lira to end depression – The
Telegraph
It is an
incontrovertible fact that Italy’s 14-year disaster coincides with EMU
membership
Italy's
Renzi, ECB's Draghi hold 'secret' meeting as economy slides – Reuters
Chilling
Echoes of Past, as Spain Cranks Up Political Repression – Wolf
Street
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
GDP stable
in the euro area and up by 0.2% in the EU28 – Eurostat
Eurozone
GDP Live – WSJ
Weak euro
activity in Q2 – Danske
Bank
Euro Zone
Stagnates, but Euro Doesn't Sell-Off – Marc
to Market
Euro zone
economy grinds to halt even before Russia sanctions bite – Reuters
Unexpected
drop in euro zone output clouds recovery hopes – Reuters
Euro zone
recovery snuffed out – Reuters
Euro-Area
Pickup Stalls as Big Economies Fail to Grow – BB
Euro
Recovery Halts as Germany Shrinks, France Stagnates – BB
Eurozone
stops, waits for ECB – FT
Eurozone
economy fails to grow – FT
UNITED STATES
Bullard:
Fed Getting Close to Policy Goals – WSJ
Falling
unemployment and rising inflation are bringing the Fed closer to its goals more
rapidly than policy makers had foreseen, and may justify raising interest rates
as early as the end of the first quarter of 2015, St. Louis Fed President James
Bullard said Thursday.
ASIA
Chinese
Credit Plummets – ZH
As Chinese
Credit Plummets US Stocks Soar On Hopes Of More PBOC
Easing; But Is Conventional Wisdom Again Wrong?
China
tipped to stimulate economy amid credit slump – TradingFloor
China’s
plunge in credit expansion last month and unexpected slowdown in investment
spending flashed warnings on growth that investors and economists bet will spur
policy makers to expand stimulus.
China
Driving Australian House Prices – Report – WSJ
Structural
changes in the Australian economy pose a risk for AUDUSD – TradingFloor
Aussie
economy shifting from away from mining based * AUDUSD has risen from 87c to 95c
despite RBA's best efforts * Interest rate differentials should drive AUDUSD
Japan heads
for third quarter rebound but pressure on BOJ, Abe may build – Reuters
Japan's
economy is expected to rebound this quarter from a steep contraction, but
looming challenges will keep the pressure on the government and central bank
for action to sustain growth.
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hannon’s
Take: BOE Sees Rate Staying Low for a Lot Longer * Fed Officials Suggest
Limiting Banks’ Repo Exposure * Euro-Zone GDP Fails to Grow in Second Quarter *
South Korea Cuts Interest Rates * BOE Says It Has Plan for Scotland
Independence Vote
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Can the
U.S. go it alone? All of a sudden, economic data from around the world is
looking decidedly worrisome.
Eurozone
growth falters as Germany loses momentum – TradingFloor
Germany
feels pinch from global export activity downturn * US growth rebounds while USD
still undervalued * UK offers latest solid employment report
Great Graphic: Euro Remains
Decoupled from Peripheral Spreads – Marc
to Market
FINNISH
Työvoiman määräytyminen Suomen taloudessa – Raha
ja Talous
Teollisuuden liikevaihto maalis-toukok. reilun prosentin
laskussa YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto kasvoi maalis-toukok. 1,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto pieneni kesäkuussa – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio
heinäk. 0,8% – Tilastokeskus