W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
Special:
Jackson Hole (updated)
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EUROPE
Mum's
the word on soaring Swedish household debt as poll nears – Reuters
Johan and
Alejandra are the kind of Swedes the IMF has been warning about - piling up
debt to keep up with an ever-rising property market and fund a lifestyle of
travel, maids and nights out.
The road to
pan-European financial regulation over the last two decades has been winding
and rocky. But the general direction is clear: Unless the new internal market
commissioner takes a different view, the European Commission will push further
in the direction of centralization.
German
finmin sees quick economic recovery after weak second quarter: Spiegel – Reuters
Germany's
finance ministry expects Europe's biggest economy to bounce back after a weak
second quarter and thinks growth may even exceed the government's current
forecast of 1.8 percent for this year, Der Spiegel magazine reported on Sunday.
Launch
of the Memos to the new EU leadership – Bruegel
Bruegel
Publication Launch on 4th Sep 2014 at 10:00am Location: The Hotel, Brussels
Italy is asking the European Union to
exclude spending on infrastructure projects from the calculation of national
budget deficits, Transport Minister Maurizio Lupi was quoted as saying in
Corriere della Sera newspaper.
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Russian
economy minister calls for looser fiscal policy – Reuters
Russian
economy: landing softly – Danske
Bank
Ukraine accuses Russian forces of opening
new front in separatist war – Reuters
Ukraine crisis update – Danske
Bank
FRANCE
French
economy minister says austerity measures sapping growth – Reuters
Austerity
measures being pursued by France and elsewhere in the euro zone are
quashing growth, French Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg was quoted saying on
Saturday, renewing his attacks on policies he sees as negative for the economy.
French
economy minister urges alternative to German austerity – Reuters
French
economy minister urges alternative to German austerity – BB
The time
has come for France to resist Germany's "obsession" with
austerity and promote alternative policies across the euro zone that support
household consumption, firebrand French Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg said
on Sunday.
French
government resigns, PM Valls to form new government Tuesday – Reuters
French
Prime Minister Moves to Dissolve Cabinet – NYT
France thrown into political turmoil after
government dissolved – The
Guardian
French
government resigns after leftists call for U-turn – Reuters
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
(more stuff in the Jackson Hole-article)
ECB
easing - will it work? No. 1: ECB's easing measures revisited – Danske
Bank
Europe's Real Borrowing Costs – ZH
Not only is
demand for credit weak in the periphery as the balance sheet recession rolls
on, but "real" borrowing costs are at near-record highs... stark
contrast between the cost of funding the banks (low) and Governments
(historically low today) and real businesses (high).
The ECB
cannot move last – Worthwhile
Draghi
doesn’t understand what caused the eurozone double-dip – The Money Illusion
The ECB
tightened monetary policy sharply in 2011.
This caused NGDP growth to plunge, and the eurozone fell into a
double-dip recession
MACRO NUMBERS
Ifo
Business Climate Index in Further Decline – CESifo
Germany: The motor sputters – Nordea
UNITED STATES
More
Economists See Fed Policy As Too Loose – WSJ
Economists
overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to hold off raising short-term
interest rates until at least 2015. But nearly a third say doing so would mean
the central bank waited too long, a new survey found.
Yellen,
Wages, and Intellectual Honesty – Krugman
/ NYT
The
Home-Flipping Bubble Implodes – Wolf
Street
MACRO NUMBERS
U.S. services sector growth slows for
2nd straight month in Aug: Markit – Reuters
ASIA
BOJ
Mulling More Upbeat Language on Economy – WSJ
The Bank of
Japan is considering using more upbeat language to describe the state of the
economy in its monthly economic assessment, suggesting it doesn’t see the need
for immediate action to give faltering growth a shot in the arm.
BOJ
governor insists that, despite a recent bout of bad data, his campaign to end
deflation remains on track at the current pace of easing.
Three
German car parts suppliers have been told by China they can no longer manage their
Chinese units independently but need to form partnerships with local peers
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Wall Street Hedge Funds Increasingly See Early Fed Liftoff * Fed’s Yellen
Remains Mum on Timing of Rate Change * Bank of England Deputy Sees Likely Rise in U.K.
Wages * Japan Escaping Deflation Trap, Central Bank Chief Says * Euro-zone
Inflation to Cool in August
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The
contrast between the U.S. and the euro zone’s economic and
policy outlook is becoming starker…This divergence should continue to push the
dollar higher against the euro.
FI
Eye-opener: Heading for zero – Nordea
Equity
markets were down and the safe haven yields were clearly lower. Hopes for new
ECB measures alive and kicking. This week new cyclical lows in Euro area
inflation. Yellen not ready yet to raise.
Draghi
flirting with QE? * Time for Swedish unemployment to drop more than expected? *
Riksbank vis-à-vis Norges Bank & ECB * Bond yields moving away from nominal
macro anchors * The post-financial crisis currency models still work * Pension
sector news may affect Swedish yield curve
The
G-20's Solution To Systemically Unstable, "Too Big To Fail" Banks:
More Debt – ZH
Dollar Pares Initial Gains, French
Government Implodes
– Marc
to Market
Icelandic
volcano: Ashes to ashes for the airlines? – TradingFloor
Another
volcano in Iceland, this time, Bárðarbunga, could be
close to a major eruption, and while a reprise of the 2010 airspace closure is
improbable, the risk is real. Subsidies for airlines are unlikely and delayed
market reactions create trading opportunities.
How
Hedge Funds Are Making Money In 2014 – ZH
FINNISH
Suomen Natoon liittymistä vauhditettava – Jukka
Hankamäki
Pakotteet ja talousennustamisen haasteet – Roger
Wessman
Rikkautta, jolla on arvoa – Halla-Aho