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ECB
preview: See you next month! – TradingFloor
Consensus
expectation is for no ECB action * Remember that TLTROs kick off tomorrow * Draghi
will assess TLTRO progress before new move
Why
Draghi's drinking in the Last Chance Saloon – TradingFloor
The Italian
economy remains in recession, deflation stalks the eurozone, France is in a mess and the collapse of a
bank in Portugal are all signs the ECB should be
taking decisive action. It won't.
ECB
preview: How expectations lead to possible surprises – TradingFloor
Absolutely
nothing is expected from today's ECB policy-setting meeting but there are many
issues that should, and could, be addressed. The two main concerns are
expectations over decreased inflation, and faltering growth.
5 Things
To Look For At Thursday’s ECB Press Conference – WSJ
ECB
Watch: Something FISHy in the Eurozone? – TradingFloor
Germany has problems and the FISH are
floundering * Draghi rhetoric will be central to sentiment * Our bias is still
towards EUR underperformance
Recent
ECB Policy and Inflation Expectations – FED
Lack of
reaction in inflation expectations can be interpreted as a signal that market
participants do not expect the policy to work in terms of boosting inflation.
ECB
policy meeting: tough questions for Mario Draghi – FT
ECB
Interest Rates Preview: Mr. Draghi Will Hold, But… - WSJ
FROM MY EARLIER POSTS
[June 6] ECB
tries to please everyone, but fails – TradingFloor
The
European Central Bank tried to please everyone by deploying all of the tools at
its disposal with the exception of quantitative easing. Unfortunately, the
package leaves plenty of loose ends and unanswered questions.
[July 29] Big
changes at the ECB: emulating the Fed – TradingFloor
Minutes add
transparency and accountability * Less frequent meetings warranted as crisis
less acute * Rotation leaves even big countries occasionally without a vote
The ECB
must move to counteract market turbulences – FT
Market
is betting against Draghi’s efforts to fight deflation – Marketwatch
ECB
'won't move a muscle' despite deflation fears – CNBC
The ECB is
expected to hold fire at its monetary policy meeting this week, despite a shock
fall in inflation reigniting deflation concerns.
Article
123.1 and the ECB –
Mainly
Macro
Perhaps the
perceived need to outlaw inflation using the constitution or by treaty is an
attempt to solve a problem of the past, which is stopping us dealing with the
problems of today.
Mario's
magical J-Curve may take a long time bending – TradingFloor
Stephen
Pope: The ECB believes its rate decision will cause an inflationary J-Curve *
Unexpected changes in spending can lead to supply chain problems * CPI
continues to drop - Draghi should have acted sooner
ECB
preview: Draghi unlikely to rock the boat – Nordea
No new
measures or monetary policy signals should be expected from the ECB at the
August meeting as the threshold for further near-term easing is very high. The
message is not set to move long yields from the record-low levels, while the
ECB should be happy with a further weakening of the euro.
ECB
Preview: A meeting Draghi would have liked to cancel – Danske
Bank
ECB’s
fingers crossed for private loans growth – Reuters