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EUROPE
Top-Ökonom
Sinn warnt vor Bankenunion – Focus
Enteignung
deutscher Sparer: "Dann können wir den Sozialismus einführen!"
Europe
Air Cargo vs PMI pointing to economic slowdown – Macronomics
European
banking tests: Exam nerves – The
Economist
Will this
year’s stress tests do the trick?
German
GDP growth: Only 1 ½% after all – DB
Research
Sweden:
Accelerating house prices – Nordea
Banco
Espírito Santo: Sharing the pain – The
Economist
Portugal
grapples with a failed bank
ITALY
Italy’s
Economic ‘Recovery’ from Hell in One Chart – Wolf
Street
Italy's
growth target 'a long way off', PM aide tells Corriere della Sera – Reuters
Italy shows
that the eurozone crisis is only in remission – The
Telegraph
Three
terrible Italian ‘gaps’ – The Market
Monetarist
UNITED KINGDOM
Bank of
England holds steady as rates debate heats up – Reuters
Bank of
England maintains ultra-loose policy stance – Markit
Bank of
England leaves policy unchanged * Discussion of need for rate hike likely to
have intensified amid strong economic growth * Worries focused on weak wage
growth
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Sanctions
and Solidarity – Project
Syndicate
Daniel Gros:
A common fund to provide compensation for the economic costs of sanctions
should be an integral part of the EU’s emerging foreign-policy stance toward
Russia. Creating such a fund would provide a potent symbol of solidarity within
the EU, while providing an ideal opportunity to show why the sanctions’ costs
are likely to be low.
Is fish
fungible? – The
Economist
So Vladimir
Putin has reacted to Western sanctions by imposing his own… It is pretty hard
to see the point of this, even in political terms
Russia bans
Western food imports – Reuters
How scams
and shakedowns brought down Ukraine to its knees – Reuters
Russia Retaliation
Inflicts Worst Euro-Area Scars on Finland – BB
Russian
banks in euro zone could face curbs on ECB borrowing as sanctions bite – Reuters
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB: Not
a bazooka but comes close – Nordea
The
targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) the European Central Bank
announced in June are a potent weapon against weak lending growth, and are
likely to see big demand. We expect to see a total of around EUR 650bn taken
from the TLTROs. They will contribute to an improving credit environment, keep
short rates anchored very close to zero and continue to support spread
narrowing in EUR government bond markets.
Europe’s
low inflation is sending it into a lost decade – WaPo
They had
one job. The European Central Bank (ECB) was supposed to keep inflation close
to, but below, its 2 percent target. It's failed miserably, and it's not going
to stop anytime soon.
ECB MEETING
Press
release – monetary policy decisions – ECB
Introductory
statement to the press conference – ECB
ECB Mario
Draghi News Conference – Recap – WSJ
Live blog:
Mario Draghi’s August press conference – FT
Draghi
Stays the Course – Marc to
Market
ECB’s Hopes
Rest on Fallible Program – WSJ
ECB’s
failure in one graph – The
Market Monetarist
5 Takeaways
From Mario Draghi’s News Conference – WSJ
Euro zone
recovery uneven, rates to stay low: ECB's Draghi – Reuters
ECB says
Ukraine crisis threatens EU recovery, keeps rates low – Reuters
Draghi Says
Geopolitical Risks to Economy Increasing – BB
Beecroft on
Draghi, QE and what next for EURUSD – TradingFloor
Analysts
Pick Through Draghi’s Words – TradingFloor
ECB
meeting: waiting for take-up on TLTRO – Danske
Bank
ECB:
Draghi’s sausage full of derivatives – Nordea
ECB has
faith in June-measures but sees increasing geopolitical risks – Handelsbanken
UNITED STATES
Will the
US inflate away its public debt? – voxeu.org
Faced with
daunting levels of public debt, it may be tempting to inflate away the burden.
Some recent research has endorsed such a policy, but this column argues that it
is infeasible. The rule of thumb that suggests an inflation rate four
percentage points higher would reduce debt by 20% ignores creditor composition
and maturity details, even if a 6% inflation rate were achievable. The hard
truth is that there is no easy way out of debt.
As U.S.
firms flee to Europe, can Washington get its act together on tax reform? – WaPo
You might
think the rush of companies renouncing their U.S. citizenship would at long
last give Washington policymakers an incentive to compromise on tax reform.
After all, everyone from President Obama on down to the greenest House
Republican agrees that the corporate tax system, with its
highest-in-the-developed-world 35 percent tax rate, is in desperate need of
repair.
Over the
past three decades, U.S. trading partners for goods have changed — but not
drastically. The biggest shift has been the rapid rise of China as both an
importer and exporter.
How Weak
Is Housing? Five Charts Tell the Story – WSJ
Consumer Borrowing
Posts Weak Growth –
WSJ
FEDERAL RESERVE
Fed’s
Lockhart: Fed Remains on Track for Second Half 2015 Rate Boost – WSJ
Fed
Hawks Squawk – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Without a
more pressing threat to inflation expectations from a combination of actual
inflation in excess of the Fed's target and wage growth to support that
inflation, Yellen has room to normalize policy at a gradual pace. For now, the
data is still on her side and the hawks will remain frustrated, much as they
have for the past several years.
Economists
Still Betting on Mid-2015 Fed Rate Rise, WSJ Survey Shows – WSJ
ASIA
IMF's
China: Blind men and the elephant? – Humble
Student
I have been
meaning to write about this but other tasks got in the way. Last week, the IMF
released its Article IV report on China. There were lots of concerns and
suggestions, but to me, it seemed like the story of the blind men and the
elephant.
OTHER
Daily
Macro – WSJ
All eyes
are on the European Central Bank this morning, though don’t expect much in the
way of policy change from it. That’s not to say that European data recently
haven’t sent strong signals that more monetary stimulus could be needed in the
months ahead.
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Da Costa’s
Take: Rising Wages a Desired Outcome of Fed Policy * Lockhart Doesn’t See Fed
Rate Hike Until Second Half of 2015 * Fed Looms as Major Factor in Treasury
Borrowing Outlook * Federal Reserve Approves Bank of America’s Resubmitted Capital Plan * BOE
Leaves Rate Unchanged As Debate Intensifies
Asset
sell-off reminder of financial stability threats – FT
Mohamed
El-Erian: Correction reflected cumulative impact of multiple causes
EMEA
Weekly – Danske
Bank
FINNISH
Valtioneuvoston kanslian talousarvioehdotus vuodelle 2015
– VN
Suomen säästämistasapaino – Roger
Wessman
Vaalibudjetti ei toteudu – Talouden
tulkki
Cashback
budjetti – Akateeminen talousblogi
Kapitalismin kriisi – Takkirauta
Finanssivalvonta varoittaa pankkien tarjoamien
vaihtovelkakirjalainojen ehdoista – Piksu
Hallitus selvityttää Venäjän vastapakotteiden vaikutukset
– VNK
Analyytikko: Finnair jäisi todelliseen mottiin – TalSa
Venäjän vastapakotteet käynnistivät "täyden
kauppasodan" ja iskevät Suomeen pahasti – HS
Testi: Oletko jälkikeynesiläinen talousajattelija? – Raha
ja Talous
Stubb Venäjän pakotteista: Tilanne on vakava, mutta
tästäkin selvitään – YLE
Teknologiateollisuus: Pitkittyvä kriisi voi johtaa
miljardiluokan menetyksiin – YLE
Teknologiateollisuudessa Venäjän-viennin osuus on ollut
yhdeksän prosentin luokkaa. Suunta on alaspäin. Pakotteet heikentävät
itänaapurin taloutta entisestään, mikä näkyy vientikysynnän vähenemisenä
suomalaisyrityksissä.
Keskustan Pekkarinen: Vaarana pakotekierre – TalSa
Kesäkuun vienti osui odotusten alareunaan – Nordea
Suomen tavaraviennin arvo kasvoi Tullin tänään julkaisemien
ennakkotietojen mukaan kesäkuussa prosentin vuodentakaisesta. Muutos osui
täsmälleen ennakko-odotustemme (1-4 prosenttia) alalaitaan. Luvut eivät anna
aihetta talouden kasvuennusteiden tarkistamiseen.