BEFORE
Juhani
Huopainen: The focus of Jackson Hole is expected to move away from being a platform for product launches
back to a forum for economic discussions. Meanwhile, markets have been riding
high while expecting a dovish message from the Federal Reserve's chair Janet
Yellen. It's also the first time ECB president Mario Draghi will be speaking at
Jackson Hole, although he's not expected to say
anything too meaningful.
Jackson Hole Guide: Investors Seek Yellen Job-Market View – BB
Jackson Hole: 'Tremendous' Downside Risks If Yellen Doesn't Go Full Dovish – ZH
Citi’s Englander: The consensus expectation is overwhelming that Fed Chair Yellen will deliver a dovish message at Jackson Hole ... Our question is whether Yellen can be more dovish than what is now priced in, not whether she will be dovish on the Richter scale of dovishness.
The Legend of Jackson Hole – FT
Jackson Hole’s reputation owes much to the speeches Ben Bernanke gave from 2007 to 2012. But much of this was an accident of timing rather than a deliberate plan to use Jackson Hole to send a message. It happened each year that the economy deteriorated during the spring and summer, leading the Fed to launch a new round of stimulus in the autumn
Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Hawkish – ZH
Yellen returns Jackson Hole to wonky roots – FT
The conference was never designed to communicate monetary policy and Ms Yellen may not have a blockbuster in mind this year.
Dramas to match scenery at Jackson Hole – FT
Labour market dynamics to play central role for monetary policy
How Jackson Hole became such an important economic talking shop – The Economist
Why You Should Care About Jackson Hole – BB
Mohamed A. El-Erian: What can be done to put more people back to work? How much power do central banks really have? What is the global impact of central bank policies?
Keep rates low until the hidden jobless return to work – FT
Persistent unemployment will do more lasting damage than a rise in inflation, writes Adam Posen.
Yellen resolved to avoid raising rates too soon, fearing downturn – Reuters
Approaching an historic turn in US monetary policy, Janet Yellen has staked her tenure as chair of the Federal Reserve on a simple principle: she'd rather fight inflation than another economic downturn.
Expect No Fresh Signals from Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole – Marc to Market
Yellen will likely argue the case of there being significant slack (underutilisation) in the labour market. For Draghi too, Jackson Hole does not seem like a particularly likely forum for some policy revelation.
Before Jackson Hole, round-up of Yellen’s quotes on the labour market – FT
When Packing for Jackson Hole, include these economic reports – WSJ
Inflation Is Warming Up * Housing Still Has Problems
At Jackson Hole, Central Banks Moving in Different Directions – WSJ
WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath’s preview of Jackson Hole. The big question: will the Fed wait too long to raise rates?
Heading Into Jackson Hole – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Anything other than a dovish message coming from the Jackson Hole conference will be a surprise. Tight labour markets alone will not justify an aggressive pace of tightening. An aggressive pace requires that those tight labour markets manifest themselves into higher wages growth and higher inflation. Yellen seems content to normalise slowly until she sees the whites in the eyes of inflation.
Don’t Hike Alone Is Jackson Hole Bear Warning for Central Banks – BB
Yellen continues to caution that labour markets are slack enough to merit low interest rates, while European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda may even deploy more stimulus before the end of the year to battle low inflation.
AFTER
Special
Edition Grand Central: Live from Jackson Hole! – WSJ
Yellen Says
Job Market Improving, but Noncommittal About Policy Effect * ECB’s Draghi
Signals Departure From Austerity Focus * BOJ’s Kuroda Sees Pickup in Global
Growth, Japanese Exports * Fed’s Lockhart: Unemployment Rate Overstates Job
Market Progress * Activists at Jackson Hole See Recovery on Wall Street, ‘Not
My Street’ * Jackson Hole Research Roundup
ACADEMIC RESEARCH
The problem
of long-term joblessness following the recession is vastly overstated by a
focus on what the authors see as the wrong sort of data.
Fed
Conference Paper: There’s Nothing ‘Natural’ About Unemployment – WSJ
U.S. policy makers have long prided
themselves on the dynamism of U.S. labor markets, which, unlike Europe’s, allow workers and businesses to
adapt quickly as the economy evolves. A study raises questions about whether U.S. labor markets are actually all that
dynamic.
While
thinning out the ranks of middle-class jobs easily replaced by machines,
automation is increasing the ranks of low-skilled workers who perform tasks
that can’t easily be displaced by machines — like cooks or home health workers
— and the ranks of high-end workers with abstract thinking skills that
computers can’t match.
A Theory
on Long-Term Economic Trends and a Sudden Crash – NYT
Employment
losses during the Great Recession may have had more to do with factors like the
rise of Walmart than with the recession itself, two economists say in a new
academic paper.
Great
Recession's damage to U.S. labor market was typical: paper – Reuters
The deep
recession of 2007-2009 dealt no more permanent damage to the U.S. labor market
than other recent downturns, according to a research paper prepared for a
central banking conference that disputed the notion it left unusually heavy
economic scars.
The U.S.
labor market has become steadily less dynamic since 1990, with workers
seemingly locked into particular jobs and a more sluggish process of job
creation and destruction in the private sector, according to research to be
presented to global central bankers on Friday.
Computers
reshaping global job market, for better and worse: paper – Reuters
Automation
and increasingly sophisticated computers have boosted demand for both highly
educated and low-skilled workers around the globe, while eroding demand for
middle-skilled jobs, according to research to be presented to global central
bankers on Friday.
A slight clarification about the
"end of labor" – Noahpinion
SPEECHES
Yellen’s
Speech – FED
Yellen:
Slack Remains, QE Is Over, Rates Could Rise Sooner (Or Later) – ZH
Yellen:
Unemployment Rate "somewhat overstates" Improvements – Calculated
Risk
Yellen
Keeps Focus on Labor Market Slack – BB
Yellen
Noncommittal on Jobs, Rates; Markets Yawn – WSJ
What Yellen
Said, What the Markets Heard – WSJ
The Market
Reacts To (Then Reads) Janet Yellen's Speech – ZH
Janet
Yellen: Three Reasons Wage Trends Can’t Be Trusted – The
Reformed Broker
Yellen says
she’s confident in labor market progress, uncertain of road ahead – WaPo
Janet
Yellen’s Rorschach speech – FT
Three
Separate Economists Made The Exact Same Joke About Yellen – BI
Yellen says
job market still in recovery – Reuters
Yellen
Facing Hard Call on When Labor Market Has Healed – BB
Yellen
Cites 19-Measure Labor Market Index – BB
Draghi’s
speech – ECB
Draghi’s
presentation slides – ECB
Mario
Draghi Takes The Wind Out Of Citi's "QE In December" Sails – ZH
Draghi says
ECB stands ready to adjust policy further – Reuters
Draghi Says
ECB Ready to Do More as Governments Urged to Help – BB
Draghi at Jackson Hole – Mainly
Macro
A less dovish Yellen, a more dovish Draghi – The Economist
Draghi’s
Fantastic Speech On What's Wrong, But Still In Denial On One Big Thing – BI
Austerity
wasn't necessary. Yes, there were problems in the eurozone, but they had to do
with the unsound currency structure. Draghi is still denying that there was
massive self-inflicted harm for no reason at all.
Draghi’s
speech suggests weak start for EURO on Monday – TradingFloor
A less dovish Yellen, a more dovish Draghi – The Economist
ECB may
need to act if European inflation falls further: Draghi – Reuters
A further
drop in European inflation would pose price stability risks and the European Central
Bank would use "all the available instruments" in response, ECB
President Mario Draghi said on Friday.
Draghi
Signals ECB Action as Inflation Expectations Slide – BB
Mario
Draghi said inflation expectations have deteriorated across the euro area and
signaled policy makers are ready to add fresh monetary stimulus.
Bank of England
BoE can
resolve financial stability coordination issues: Broadbent – Reuters
There are
potential "coordination issues" between the BoE’s new financial
stability committee and other bank functions, a senior BoE official said on
Saturday, adding that these issues can be resolved.
BOE’s
Broadbent Says Path of Rates to Be ‘Materially Different’ – BB
Echoing
Governor Mark Carney’s point that any increase in the U.K. benchmark from 0.5 percent will be
gradual
BOE’s
Broadbent Says Labor Data Is Key in Post-Crisis World – BB
“The output
data are no longer sufficient statistics for inflationary pressure: even if you
have to wait a while to see them, movements in unemployment become important
too”
BoJ may
ease policy for 'some time' to slay deflation: Kuroda – Reuters
The Bank of
Japan may have to pursue its aggressive monetary policy easing for "some
time" to fully vanquish deflation, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on
Saturday.
Added later
Fed in
'real debate' on rate hike in early to mid-2015: Lockhart – Reuters
The U.S. Federal
Reserve is focused on an initial interest rate hike between the first quarter
and the middle of next year, with possible changes in its main policy statement
as soon as next month, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on Saturday.
A top
Federal Reserve official said on Friday that little slack remained in the U.S. labor
market and that the central bank should not be too timid when the times comes
to raise interest rates.
The world’s
two most powerful central bankers are nearing a transatlantic gap in monetary
policy as the Federal Reserve debates raising interest rates while the European
Central Bank signals more stimulus.
Job
concerns dominate Jackson Hole debate – FT
The
stereotype, said Mr Draghi, is that all Europe’s unemployment is structural – and thus
permanent – while all US unemployment is cyclical – and will
go away as the economy recovers. The message of both central bank chiefs, he
said, is that reality is more complicated. “It’s complicated!” was pretty much
the message from Jackson Hole this year.
Pressure
builds within Fed to signal new policy course – Reuters
Pressure is
building within the Federal Reserve for officials to move as early as next
month to more clearly acknowledge improvements in the U.S. economy and lay the groundwork for
the central bank’s first interest rate hike in nearly a decade.
From Twitter: Barclays
calls Draghi speech at Jackson Hole 'a major breakthrough' - may
be 1st time ECB prez called for agg. demand increase
The euro
zone's growing fears of deflation will be stirred again on Friday when
preliminary consumer price data for August is issued, with signs the European
Central Bank could be looking at bolder steps to help the region's stagnant
economy
FX: Did
Draghi just hint at QE? – Nordea
After ECB
Draghi's Friday remarks on inflation, ECB stimulus speculation will increase
further. If the market interprets his remarks as a QE hint in line with
Bernanke's QE2 suggestion of Jackson Hole 2010, we will see the EUR weaken
substantially in the run-up to a formal announcement. While a weaker EUR will
be unwelcome for the Riksbank, it is unlikely to push the Riksbank in an
unconventional direction.
Jackson Hole Theme: Labor Markets Can’t Take Higher Rates – BB
The focus
on jobs suggests the Fed and Bank of England will tighten policy within a year
as their economies show signs of strengthening. By contrast, European Central
Bank President Mario Draghi and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda
acknowledged they may be forced to deploy fresh stimulus.
Draghi
Pushes ECB Closer to QE as Deflation Risks Rise – BB
Stocks rose
and bond yields dropped with the euro today as the comments fanned speculation
the ECB is finally heading for a form of monetary stimulus it has long avoided
The
eurozone needs an alternative solution to its economic woes – The
Guardian
ECB head
Mario Draghi is calling for more growth-friendly policies, but a little
quantitative easing won't do the job
Takeaways
From Jackson Hole 2014 – WSJ
Did Jackson Hole bring out the eurosceptic in
Draghi? – TradingFloor
The
consensus view on last weekend's Jackson Hole symposium was that Fed is a tad
hawkish and the ECB a bit dovish. Many missed that effectively the ECB's Draghi
said that the euro area's crisis-fighting policies have been counter-productive
and have to be reversed.
Mario
Draghi lays the groundwork for QE in Jackson Hole speech – TradingFloor
ECB
President says cyclical unemployment still significant and inflation
expectations are falling, The risks of doing too little outweigh those of doing
too much. Meanwhile the OMT program is in place, ready to be activated.
Blogs
review: Is this a European U-turn? – Bruegel
Speaking at
the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual conference Jackson Hole, Wyo., ECB President Mario Draghi made an
important speech recognizing that the recovery in the euro area remains
uniformly weak and that the euro area fiscal stance was not helping the ECB do
its job. Interestingly, French leaders also reintroduced over the weekend the
notion of aggregate demand, a concept they had noticeably moved away from with
the “Pacte de responsabilite”.
Draghi
increases likelihood of further easing – Danske
Bank
Mario
Draghi Gave A Big Speech On Friday — But The Most Crucial Part Wasn't In The
Original Text – BI
About-face
for ECB's Draghi as he seeks to jolt euro zone into life – Reuters
Prodding
governments to do more to boost demand and hinting at European Central Bank
action to go along with it marks a major shift in ECB chief Mario Draghi's euro
zone policy away from a focus on austerity towards reviving growth.
Odds and
Ends as Jackson Hole Notebook Closes – WSJ
A Few
Fed Policy Answers From the Jackson Hole Sidelines – WSJ