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MARKETS
Twelve
Lessons: What I’ve Learned About Fund Investing – Barron’s
Use the
tools that aren't distracted by newsflow * Should peace break out, the
DAX—S&P 500 gap could evaporate * Nobody wins a trade war and trading opportunities therefore exist
Treasury
Curve Collapses To Flattest Since Jan 2009 – ZH
Can
Momentum Be Arbitraged Away? – Systematic
Relative Strength
The
1990s, the 2000s and the 2010s – Price
Action Lab
The dark
side of technical analysis – Adam
Grimes
Some
challenges for technical analysis – Adam
Grimes
Five
things we can do with charts… that work – Adam Grimes
Rethinking
Buffett's "favorite" valuation metric – Humble
Student
When
“Process” Meets the Real World – The
Reformed Broker
Mindfulness,
intuition and intentional trading – Abnormal
Returns
ECONOMICS
Daily
Macro [Friday] –
WSJ
On the one
hand, the economic context in which this year’s central bank confab in Jackson Hole, Wyo., kicks off today is a much calmer
one than in the past. There is no euro crisis to talk of, no “taper tantrum”
fears coursing through emerging markets about a forthcoming end to Federal
Reserve liquidity, and there are general signs that the U.S. and U.K. economies are growing and creating
jobs. But on the other hand, there must be a sense of déjà vu for the central
bankers present.
Daily
Central Banks [Friday] – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: In Rainy Jackson Hole, Yellen Ponders Labor Market Mojo * Central Bankers
Wrestle With Easy Money Amid Uneven Global Recovery * Despite Retreat, Fed to
Keep Bond Buys in Policy Toolkit * Private Bankers Notably Absent From Jackson
Hole Conference This Year * Banks Told Fed Ahead of July Meeting They Expected
3Q 2015 Rate Hike
The
rules of central banking are made to be broken – FT
Barry Eichengreen:
Central bankers should draw line on past
Nobel
guru fears it may be nigh impossible to stop deflation – The
Telegraph
If
Abenomics fails to generate inflation/recovery in Japan, we will have very compelling
evidence that even extreme monetary policy cannot arrest entrenched deflation
in ageing societies. If so, we will have to come up with another plan. Perhaps
we can dust off the Chicago Plan and nationalise credit. None of these
challenges are beyond the wit of man.
Buiter
on helicopter drops
– FT
There
always exists – even in a permanent liquidity trap – a combined monetary and
fiscal policy action that boosts private demand – in principle without limit.
Deflation, ‘lowflation’ and secular stagnation are therefore unnecessary. They
are policy choices.
Is it
possible that a central bank that was allowed to buy land would ever need to use
helicopter money to prevent aggregate demand falling below target? Would it
ever be desirable for central banks to issue helicopter money rather than
buying land?
On wages
and inflation: jeers for fears – FT
We live in
disinflationary times, at least in the developed world. This doesn’t mean that
monetary and fiscal policies lack the potency to offset disinflation or
deflation. What it means is that holding policy constant across time,
non-policy economic forces have become less and less inflationary in recent
years.
Macro-Prudential
Policies to Mitigate Financial System Vulnerabilities – IMF
Measures
aimed at borrowers––caps on debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios––and at
financial institutions––limits on credit growth and foreign currency
lending––are effective in reducing asset growth. Countercyclical buffers are
little effective through the cycle, and some measures are even
counterproductive during downswings, serving to aggravate declines, consistent
with the ex-ante nature of macro-prudential tools.
Capital
flows and macroprudential policies – ECB
A
multilateral assessment of effectiveness and externalities, by John Beirne,
Christian Friedrich
Identifying
excessive credit growth and leverage – ECB
By using
credit to GDP gaps, credit to GDP ratios and credit growth rates, as well as
real estate variables in addition to a set of other conditioning variables, the
model is designed to not only predict banking crises, but also to give an
indication on which macro-prudential policy instrument would be best suited to
address specific vulnerabilities.
Using
product- and labour-market tightness to understand unemployment – voxeu.org
Types of
unemployment – Mainly
Macro
Idiot's
Guide to Austrian Economics – Mish’s
Abenomics
– What Could Possibly Go Wrong? – Edward
Hugh
Don’t
talk about wages and incomes – The Money Illusion
For all the
talk of the Great Depression, we might look at a different exemplar for modern
times, 18th- and 19th-century economic history
India. That country’s economic retrogression during
that era may help us understand the quandary that some parts of the world face
today.