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EUROPE
Focus Germany: Weaker recovery in H2 – DB
Research
Economic
growth probably suffered a worse setback in Q2 than initially presumed. We only
expect stagnation now, but would no longer rule out a minimal decline.
Here,
take your cash. We don’t want it – FT
From
Goldman on the state of European corporate investment… or what happens when a
yield hunt meets corporates who are running out of investment ideas:
Greek
Bonds Tumble As Troika Gives Up And Goldman Downgrades Periphery – ZH
Italy
and Portugal: All Juiced Out? Goldman Thinks So – WSJ
CDS
changes too late for BES bondholders – Reuters
A flaw in
the old contract means the CDS are unlikely to pay out even though junior
bondholders in Banco Espirito Santo were effectively wiped out over the weekend
The euro
as a precursor to Bitcoin – FT
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Economists
Prove The Success of ECB’s OMT – WSJ
ECB
'won't move a muscle' despite deflation fears – CNBC
The ECB is
expected to hold fire at its monetary policy meeting this week, despite a shock
fall in inflation reigniting deflation concerns.
ECB's
Draghi to meet EU Commission head Juncker on Wednesday: source – Reuters
UNITED KINGDOM
UK May
be Further from Full Employment than BOE Thinks – WSJ
BOE
Underestimating Slack in U.K. Economy, Blanchflower Says – BB
Chart:
The UK reaching pre-crisis GDP levels – Bruegel
In the
context of long-term growth, the British performance is less impressive
BOE’s
Haldane Asks Where Next for Central Banking? – WSJ
In one
scenario, central bankers once again fade into the background. In the other,
they are never far from the front pages. In Mr. Haldane’s analysis, the outcome
will depend on how the financial system evolves.
MACRO NUMBERS
U.K.
Services Surge at Fastest Pace in Eight Months – BB
Volume of
retail trade up by 0.4% in euro area – Eurostat
Private
consumption forecast up after increase in euro retail sales – Danske
Bank
UNITED STATES
Naming
the Biggest Losers in America – BB
Barry
Ritholtz: Congress is a national embarrassment. That sentence is one we all
have believed at one time or another to be true. But the sentence I never
imagined I would ever write is this: Thank goodness for the Federal Reserve.
Goldman
Sachs: Here’s What Will Happen When Fed Raises Rates – WSJ
MACRO NUMBERS
U.S.
services sector growth dips in July, still strong: Markit – Reuters
ISM
Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.7% - Calculated
Risk
ISM
non-manufacturing hits highest since December 2005 – TradingFloor
U.S.
factory orders rise solidly in June, inventories slow – Reuters
ISM
Non-Manufacturing: July Composite at Record High – dshort
Non-Manufacturing
ISM Soars To 9-Year Highs Months After Hitting 4-Year Lows – ZH
Upside
Surprise in ISM Services – Bespoke
ASIA
Are
financial conditions in China too lax or too stringent? – Bruegel
MACRO NUMBERS
China Services PMI Crashes To Record Low
– ZH
China July
official services PMI dips to 6-month low – Reuters
China
Services Index Falls to Record Low – BB
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Schlesinger’s
Take: BOJ Focused on the Full Half of the Glass * Fed Survey: Mortgage
Standards Ease for First Time Since Housing Bust * Bank Indonesia: Focus Remains Combating Inflation
* India’s RBI Leaves Key Rate Unchanged * Kuroda Urges
Kids to “Experience” Life
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The
question now is whether frayed nerves have been repaired enough to allow a
sustained recovery in the market. The wild card really continues to be the
Federal Reserve, and the question of when it will decide to raise rates, and to
a lesser degree the policy decisions of two big central banks of Europe, the
Bank of England and the European Central Bank. A big slowdown in services
activity in China reported earlier won’t help.
Great
Graphic: Wages and Productivity – Marc
to Market
Never
before have the major central banks so strongly advocated higher wages….even in
[Germany] in which labor apparently has a strong voice, represented on boards
of directors of large companies, wages have not kept pace with productivity
around 17 years.
Services
PMIs in Focus – Marc to
Market
Recap
2014-08-04 – Global
Macro Trading
The NYFRB
posted about financial stability, which provides a good glimpse of where the
FOMC sees dangers in the system, and more interestingly, where they look.
FX and
the normalisation puzzle – TradingFloor
Today, we
take a look at broader market sentiment and dissect the recent flow of data
from the US, UK and Eurozone. Ultimately, we feel that a number of key themes
are likely to re-assert themselves as we move further into Q3.
Inflation
Adjusted Bond Prices Tell Different Story on Relative Value – Econmatters
The US
10-YEAR Yield is not that attractive relative to European Bond Yields, in fact
US bonds are downright expensive in terms of price versus the inflation
adjusted yield I am getting as an investor.
FINNISH
Hallitus työnsi päänsä syvälle pensaaseen – KL
Kommentti: Ei hetkauta meitä, sanoo hallitus
Venäjä-pakotteista – MTV3
EU arvioi, että talouspakotteet vaikuttavat Venäjän
kansantalouteen viisi prosenttia. Valtiovarainministeriö, valtiovarainministeri
Antti Rinne (sd.) ja pääministeri Alexander Stubb (kok.) tuntuvat olevan
kuitenkin sillä linjalla, että Suomeen tämä ei vaikuta. Ehkäpä herroihin ja
hallitukseen vaikuttaakin enemmän tulossa oleva vaalivuosi ja se, ettei
positiivisia ennusteita uskalleta muuttaa ettei lisäsäästöjä tarvitse tehdä?
Suomen nettomaksu EU:lle laski – Verkkouutiset
Suurimmat nettomaksajat suhteessa bruttokansantuloon vuonna
2013 olivat Ruotsi (-0,51 %), Tanska (-0,49 %) ja Saksa (-0,49 %). Ranskan
nettomaksu suhteessa bruttokansantuloon oli -0,40 prosenttia...Suurimmat
nettosaajat bruttokansantuloon suhteutettuna olivat Unkari (5,33 %), Liettua
(4,54 %), ja Viro (4,33 %).