Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
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EUROPE
Optimism?
In the Eurozone? Forget it – TradingFloor
It may be
the long European summer but in reality this is the perfect time for the
Eurozone to send a few ferrets down the many holes in the system and see what
startled rabbits pop up. They're likely to be very sickly.
Sharp
decline in intra-EU trade over the past 4 years – Bruegel
Divergence
between the Euro Area and the European Union as a whole is almost non-existent
Where
European Banks are Lending – Marc
to Market
Lending at
their strongest pace since 2008, but not to European counterparts, to Asia.
Italy must cut its output growth
forecast, its economy minister told a newspaper, adding that economic weakness
was a European problem that the region's governments needed to tackle together.
BONDS
How Low
Can Euro-Zone Yields Go? – WSJ
With yields
already at rock bottom levels, how much good could central bank buying of
sovereign debt possibly do to the wider euro-zone economy? Maybe not much. But
it shouldn’t be written off completely.
The
Greatest Depression? German Yields Now Negative Through 2017 – ZH
FRANCE
Hollande
takes a hard line against anyone questioning his subservience – Krugman
/ NYT
Yes, in the
fullness of time, supply-side reform is indispensable. For now, though,
monetary and fiscal accommodation should be Hollande's most urgent priorities.
Facing
record low approval ratings at home and skeptical European partners in Berlin,
Frankfurt, and Brussels, the French president had little alternative but to
double down on his recent political shift right toward a more mainstream
European center-left social democracy for the French Socialists. Hollande is
hoping that his commitment to austerity and reforms at a time when Europe is turning to a more activist
fiscal policy earns him some appreciation from Germany and the European Central Bank (ECB).
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Nadia
Kazakova: Both Ukraine and Russia need a deal brokered for economic
reasons * Russia is pushing Ukraine to recognise the separatists as a
legitimate party * Ukraine preparing to tough it out, but
faces harsh winter
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB easing
- will it work? No. 3: Carry trades and 'hot potato' effect – Danske
Bank
Still
possible to do carry trades, but less attractive than earlier * The first three
months of negative rates: signs of the ‘hot potato’
Can
Mario Draghi save the euro again? – WaPo
Draghi only
had to say "whatever it takes" to end Europe's financial crisis. But Draghi will
actually have to do whatever it takes to end Europe's economic one. That's what he's
trying to do now, but the eurocrats might not let him. They have their rules,
after all.
BMO
makes the case for ECB asset purchases – FT
ECB
Hires Blackrock For ABS-Buying Advice – ZH
ECB says
selects Blackrock to help develop ABS plan – BB
ECB’s
Coeure Says ABS Push May Fail Unless States Back Debt – BB
“Europe is facing a very fundamental choice
if it wants to move to an ABS market that is as deep and liquid as the U.S. market. To reach this goal, the
securitization market will require a significantly different amount of public
sponsoring than is currently the case.”
German
consumer confidence drops for the first time in 20 months – TradingFloor
A single
month, wiped nearly all gains of the boom of the last 12 months – Wolf
Street
UNITED STATES
The budget
deficit in the U.S. this year will be wider than
predicted four months ago as weaker- than-expected economic growth in the first
half hurt tax revenue, the Congressional Budget Office said.
Bringing
It Back Home – Project
Syndicate
An
increasing number of American companies are making plans to shift their
headquarters to Europe, in order to escape the United States’ uniquely unfavorable corporate tax
rules. So what should US policymakers do?
ASIA
Since 2006
there has been a substantial slowdown in new home investments. Our calculations
suggest that structural growth in new home investments could already have
declined below 7%...Nonetheless, at least 70% of the decline in new home
investments over the past year appears to be cyclical and can largely be
explained by tighter financial conditions.
Foreigners
in the firing line as Chinese regulators take aim – TradingFloor
Pauline
Loong: Foreign companies swept up in China’s anti-trust investigations may
soon find company in misery. The threat of rising defaults in wealth management
and other investment products is focusing regulatory attention on the
liabilities of fund management companies and that of their foreign partners.
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Blackstone’s
Take: The ECB’s New Math: 5+5=QE * ECB and Fed Face Policy Divergence, For Now
* Hungary Leaves Key Rate Unchanged After Two Years of Cutting * Europe’s Banks Boost Lending in Asia
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Euro-zone
bond yields slide to yet new record lows as expectations grow that the European
Central Bank is lining up a massive dose of quantitative easing—perhaps focused
on purchases of private sector assets, such as ABS, rather than government
bonds. It has put the onus very strongly on ECB President Mario Draghi, who
helped create this anticipation with his speech in Jackson Hole last weekend. Some are calling
those comments “Whatever it Takes 2,” a rerun of his pledge from two years ago
to save the euro, but this time he absolutely has to deliver concrete policy
action. Words are not enough. If, after all this talk, nothing happens, the
snapback in the market will be violent. Let’s hope he has the full backing of
the Germans.
ECB and
Fed Face Policy Divergence, For Now – WSJ
The
linkages between the euro zone and the U.S. could make it difficult for the two
central banks to run markedly different policies for long. “Either the global
environment gets good enough for the euro-zone outlook to improve–then the ECB
will not be on a different path as the Fed for long–or if the global outlook
goes down, then the Fed would delay a policy tightening”, said Berenberg chief
economist Holger Schmieding.
EURUSD: Further weakness ahead – TradingFloor
Sell EURUSD about 1.3175, stop 1.3204
initially, trailing stop to break-even and better once 1.3145 is broken, target
50% at 1.3115 and 50% at 1.3070
When FX wars become negative
interest wars – FT
FX strategist at UBS has been
wondering about what the Swiss National Bank may do if the ECB’s measures to
weaken the euro begin to test its 1.20 EURCHF floor.
Dollar Slips, while Bond Market
Rally Continues – Marc
to Market
Another USD regime shift? – FT
BofAML’s David Woo: The momentum
behind the outperformance of Eurozone peripheral debt and Eurozone high yield
credit has been slowing since the start of Q3….Investors maybe rotating out of
European bonds into US bonds… If we are right that foreign private buying of US
bonds (on a currency unhedged basis ) is picking up, the USD will be the
primary beneficiary.
Explaining
My Portfolio – The
Short Side of Long
Where does
one see value in current global macro environment * Silver’s bear market is now
ongoing for almost 3 and half years * Sugar is one of the most disliked
agricultural commodities… * Uranium is one of the most oversold industries in
the world… * Australian economy has not
suffered a recession for 23 years! * I do not want anything to do with US
stocks or US bonds!!! * I am closely tracking Russian stocks & Gold Mining
Juniors
FINNISH
Venäjä-pakotteiden ja vastapakotteiden talousvaikutukset
vähäisiä – Verkkouutiset
EU:n ja muiden maiden rajoittavilla toimenpiteillä ja
Venäjän tuontikiellolla on vain vähäisiä suoria vaikutuksia Venäjän ja sen
kauppakumppaneiden kokonaistaloudelliseen toimintaan, arvioidaan keskiviikkona
hallitukselle luovutetussa raportissa.
Onko rahapoliittisen keskustelun käymisessä mitään
järkeä? – Tyhmyri
sekä kertauksena heinäkuulta 2013:
Vaarallinen elvytysharha – yhtä vaarallinen kuin säästämisen
harha – Tyhmyri
Masokistinen talouspolitiikka johtaa talousanemiaan –
Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Hallitus tasapainoilee budjettiriihen linjauksia muka yllättyneenä
talouden heikosta yleiskunnosta. Talouden anemian ei kuitenkaan pitäisi olla
yllätys, sillä se on seurausta EU:n ja Suomenkin varta vasten harjoittamasta
masokistisesta talouspolitiikasta. Samaa talouden temppurataa on kuitenkin
tarkoitus jatkaa.
Stubb: Valtion budjetti pienenee taas – TalSA
Budjettiriihen ensimmäisen päivän tiedotustilaisuudessa ei
saatu tarkkoja tietoja ensi vuoden budjetista ja rakennepaketista, vaan niitä joudutaan
odottamaan huomiseen. Venäjä-pakotteista sen sijaan esitettiin huojentavia
arvioita.
EKP jatkaa ajanpeluuta – Vesa
Varhee / TalSa
Euroopan keskuspankin pääjohtaja Mario Draghi antoi
viikonloppuna selvän viestin. EKP jatkaa elvyttävää rahapolitiikkaa ja on
valmis erityistoimiin taloutta uhkaavan deflaation torjumiseksi.
Palkansaajien ansiot Q2 +1,2% – Tilastokeskus
Myönnettyjen rakennuslupien kuutiomäärä Q2 -11% – Tilastokeskus
Kuluttajien luottamus heikkeni elokuussa – Tilastokeskus
Konkurssien määrä tammi-heinäk. -4,5 prosenttia YoY – Tilastokeskus